U. S. Naval Academy '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.44 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 2 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.53 (fleet 3.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–49 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 18–13 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 8–13 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 9–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 8–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (92 matches) the record is 43–49 against 40.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Seahawk Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.83 | 4.05 | 12–12 | 7.2 | +1.23 | 4.5 | 1% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 5.91 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 67% |
| 2018-02-17 | ODU Quad | skipper | 2.97 | 4.43 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 33% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.31 | 8–13 | 10.1 | −0.62 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 1.51 | 5–6 | 7.4 | −1.24 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 3.37 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 2.42 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 2.60 | 7–5 | 6.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Seahawk Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 3.59 |
| ODU Quad | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Match Race Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 4.05 |
| ICSA Match Race Nationals Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.3 | 2.41 |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.8 | 2.91 |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 2.8 | 2.56 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.7 | 3.40 |
| Intrepid Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.72 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.1 | 1.76 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | 2.88 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 2.47 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | B | 1 | 15.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 9.3 | 2.91 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 3.44 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.0 | 2.51 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 3.53 |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 3.00 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
