| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 7–3 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 4–6 |
| 6 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,222 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 30 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.596 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.00 ± 0.43: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.48 | 10.45 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +0.97 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 5 | U. S. Naval Academy | 8.68 | 9.21 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.40 | 10.24 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | George Washington University | 9.70 | 9.47 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 3 | Fordham University | 10.12 | 9.82 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 6 | Cornell University | 8.62 | 7.33 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.29 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Carter | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 2.75 | 4.20 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.45 | 1.5 | 18% |
| Eddie Cox | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 2.94 | 3.92 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +0.97 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Michael Madigan | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.25 | 3.78 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Jimmy Madigan | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.84 | 3.37 | 4–6 | 2.9 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Kyle Burgess | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.06 | 2.89 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Chase Quinn | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.59 | 3.43 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Brendan Shanahan | George Washington University | 3.46 | 3.22 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Connor Godfrey | Fordham University | 3.60 | 3.31 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Alecsander Tayler | Fordham University | 3.49 | 3.20 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Will Holz | Fordham University | 3.06 | 2.77 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Alex Woloshyn | Cornell University | 2.76 | 1.47 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.29 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Connor Kelter | Cornell University | 2.97 | 1.68 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.29 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Clark Uhl | Cornell University | 2.49 | 1.20 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.29 | 1.4 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Statesmen | Rams | Colonials | Midshipmen | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Statesmen | Rams | Colonials | Midshipmen | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | W | ✕ | L | L | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | W | L | W | ✕ | L | L |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Colonials | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Chase Quinn '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17 |
Marissa Golison '16 Hannah Chapman '17 Grace Mcdougall '16 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Bailey Carter '19 Connor Swikart '18 Eddie Cox '16 Greiner Hobbs '18 |
Haley Okun '18 Charlotte Wells '18 Allison Hunger '19 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17 |
Evan Morgan '18 Connor Murphy '16 Johanna Monro '16 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Brendan Shanahan '17 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18 |
Matthew Homa '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Riley Legault '19 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Jimmy Madigan '18 Michael Madigan '17 Peter Hogan '18 |
Mary Robertson '17 Michelle Katz '18 Brittany Webb-Martin '18 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Alex Woloshyn '17 Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18 |
Claire Riedman '16 Lindsay Gimple '17 Julie Barbera '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
