Hobart and William Smith Colleges '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.67 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 20 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–10 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 14–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 24–10 against 21.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-02 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 2.99 | 10–2 | 10.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 4.20 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.45 | 1.5 | 18% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 3.15 | 9–7 | 7.7 | +0.49 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.6 | 3.68 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.7 | 3.16 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.1 | 2.85 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.0 | 4.41 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.2 | 3.52 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 3.47 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.9 | 5.94 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 4.25 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.3 | 2.47 |
| Seneca Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 3.95 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 3.94 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.4 | 3.59 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 3.66 |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 4.44 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 4.36 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.4 | 5.00 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 3.92 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 3.89 |
| Cayuga Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 3.41 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | 3.85 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 4.22 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 3.11 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 4.11 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.9 | 3.18 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.6 | 3.81 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.1 | 2.63 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 3.16 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.9 | 3.82 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.9 | 3.29 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 3.26 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.9 | 2.71 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.3 | 3.65 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.7 | 3.36 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.1 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.6 | 2.90 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 2.97 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.8 | 3.88 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 4.13 |
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 4.26 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.5 | 3.74 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.91 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.6 | 2.52 |
| Radial Open Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.5 | 1.49 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 2.86 |
| Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.1 | -0.01 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 2.79 |
| Cornell Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | -0.04 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Bailey Carter |  Portsmouth Abbey School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
