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Seneca Lake Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 30 30
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 43 43
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 44 44
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 45 45
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 49 49
6 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 50 50
7 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 64 64
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 70 70
9 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 73 73
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 87 87
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 100 100
12 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 100 100
13 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 104 104
14 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 106 106
15 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 108 108
16 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 2 109 MRP 109 MRP
17 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 111 111
18 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 1 115 MRP 115 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 4 8 3 7 2 2 1 3 30 Clark Uhl '19
Adeline Sutton '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 1 3 1 3 14 1 2 18 43 Sajan Alagiri '21
Miranda Sannino '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 7 11 4 8 5 4 3 2 44 Kyle Easton '20
Cailin Gensler '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 11 4 6 1 1 6 9 7 45 Bailey Carter '19
Blair Reilly '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 15 1 2 2 10 5 10 4 49 Michael Munger '20
Tory Mileti '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 10 9 5 5 3 8 4 6 50 Phillip Schofield '21
Louisa Bjerke '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 6 2 10 10 9 10 6 11 64 Ella Withington '22
Audrey Morin '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 3 5 16 11 8 3 12 12 70 Brooke Shachoy '22
Kimberly Wong '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 9 6 17 4 4 7 18 8 73 Gerard Eastman '21
Diana Otis '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 2 10 9 16 13 16 7 14 87 Ethan Andersen '20
Ana Schonander '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 8 17 14 15 12 18 11 5 100 Jake Vickers '22
Sarah Smith '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 18 16 15 14 6 17 13 1 100 Katherine Cox '20
Kate Homet '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 14 7 12 17 16 9 14 15 104 Charles Carraway '22
Katherine Klempen '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 5 15 18 9 17 11 15 16 106 Blake Stackpoole '22
Alexander Kerai '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 13 12 13 12 18 15 8 17 108 Sebby Turner '20
Sally Wilmot '22
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 2 17 13 7 6 7 14 16 9 109 MRP Cameron Wallace '22
Margaret Wilkins '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 16 18 11 13 11 12 17 13 111 Alex Fowkes '20
Becca Jordan '21
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 1 12 14 8 18 15 13 5 10 115 MRP Scott Gittens '20
Marc De Verteuil '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 111111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 222222222
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 333333333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 444444444
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 555555555
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 666666666
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 777777777
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 888888888
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 199999999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 21010101010101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 31111111111111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 41212121212121212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 51313131313131313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 61414141414141414
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 71515151515151515
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 81616161616161616
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels 11717171717171717
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels 21818181818181818

Conditions — 09/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1021.6 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 3.6 kn
Gusts to 9.9 kn
From SSE (149°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover16% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1021.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · SE 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.72 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →