Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/26/2015
TypeConference Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	18
2	Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	37
3	George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	69
4	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	75
5	Cornell University	Quinn Howes '16	87
6	Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	96
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	110
8	Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	112
9	Georgetown University	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16	123
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Carolyn Smith '17	131
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Erin Condon '17	165
12	Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	167
13	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Robertson '17	182
14	George Washington University	Taylor Brimberg '18	184
15	Georgetown University	Marissa Murray '18	200
16	Christopher Newport University	Hannah Cantolino '18	212
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sarah Warren '18	223
18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bailey Carter '19	225

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	3	2	18
Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	2	2	2	2	2	8	2	2	1	3	7	2	1	1	37
George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	5	3	4	3	4	2	3	5	5	4	12	9	5	5	69
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	4	4	6	5	10	5	5	10	3	2	3	10	4	4	75
Cornell University	Quinn Howes '16	3	8	3	8	3	3	4	3	10	5	4	4	13	16	87
Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	7	7	7	7	7	4	10	7	4	8	5	3	11	9	96
U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	10	5	8	11	11	9	13	8	8	7	2	5	6	7	110
Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	8	6	5	6	6	11	9	12	13	9	6	7	8	6	112
Georgetown University	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16	14	11	11	12	8	7	7	6	7	10	8	6	2	14	123
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Carolyn Smith '17	11	14	13	4	5	6	8	13	6	6	11	14	7	13	131
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Erin Condon '17	6	12	9	10	9	13	DNS	4	12	13	14	15	17	12	165
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	9	15	10	9	12	10	11	11	11	15	9	12	16	17	167
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Robertson '17	13	13	12	13	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	9	12	10	11	10	3	182
George Washington University	Taylor Brimberg '18	12	10	14	16	14	12	14	14	15	11	16	13	15	8	184
Georgetown University	Marissa Murray '18	16	9	15	14	13	16	6	9	14	16	18	18	18	18	200
Christopher Newport University	Hannah Cantolino '18	15	17	17	15	15	14	15	RAF	16	14	15	17	12	11	212
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sarah Warren '18	17	16	16	17	16	15	12	15	DNF	18	17	16	14	15	223
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bailey Carter '19	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	17	17	13	8	9	10	225

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.94	6.84	+3.90	80th → 99th	27.7	<1%	1.3 / 6.5
2	Lola Bushnell '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	2.53	4.45	+1.92	65th → 99th	12.1	<1%	2.6 / 7.4
3	Sarah Alexander '19	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	1.96	3.27	+1.31	50th → 86th	7.0	2%	4.9 / 9.0
4	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.49	2.98	+0.49	63rd → 81st	1.1	13%	5.4 / 7.6
5	Quinn Howes '16	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	1.83	2.57	+0.75	45th → 67th	2.5	12%	6.2 / 9.3
6	Rose Edwards '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.18	2.59	+0.41	57th → 68th	0.8	24%	6.9 / 8.4
7	Hannah Hughes '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	1.94	2.19	+0.25	50th → 58th	0.3	30%	7.9 / 9.0
8	Gillian Boehringer '18	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	1.72	2.23	+0.51	43rd → 58th	1.3	23%	8.0 / 9.6
9	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	2.39	1.97	−0.42	61st → 51st	1.1	67%	8.8 / 7.9
10	Carolyn Smith '17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	2.24	1.75	−0.49	59th → 43rd	1.5	72%	9.4 / 8.3
11	Erin Condon '17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	0.84	1.36	+0.52	19th → 32nd	1.2	45%	11.8 / 12.0
12	Olivia Windemuller '19	Old Dominion University	14/14	1.11	1.22	+0.12	25th → 29th	0.1	62%	11.9 / 11.3
13	Mary Robertson '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	1.63	1.68	+0.05	40th → 42nd	0.0	89%	13.0 / 9.9
14	Taylor Brimberg '18	George Washington University Colonials 3	14/14	1.43	0.80	−0.64	34th → 18th	2.5	85%	13.1 / 10.4
15	Marissa Murray '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 5	14/14	0.57	-0.02	−0.58	15th → 6th	1.4	74%	14.3 / 12.6
16	Hannah Cantolino '18	Christopher Newport University	14/14	0.72	0.14	−0.58	17th → 9th	1.5	90%	15.1 / 12.2
17	Sarah Warren '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	14/14	1.29	-0.34	−1.63	30th → 3rd	13.7	99%	15.9 / 10.8
18	Bailey Carter '19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	1.97	0.23	−1.73	50th → 10th	8.5	>99%	16.1 / 8.9

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1027.7 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 15.3 kn

Gusts to 27.6 kn

From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1027.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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