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Susan Rogers '75 Memorial

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 115
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 136
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 157
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 292
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 316
6 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 320
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 326
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 378
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 7 30 Daisy Holthus '21 [1-6]
Brooke Shachoy '22 [7-15]
Kimberly Wong '19 [1-6]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 4 6 5 6 1 2 5 10 11 1 3 7 1 1 2 65 Bailey Carter '19 [1-15]
Sarah Smith '22 [1-5, 10-12]
Kate Homet '19 [6-9, 13-15]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 7 1 4 5 9 3 7 5 5 2 4 3 5 5 6 71 Katherine Cox '20
Cailin Gensler '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 8 7 8 7 3 4 10 4 3 5 2 2 3 3 3 72 Lenox Butcher '20
Laura Whelan '20
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines A 5 2 3 2 4 5 4 12 4 8 7 6 4 14 4 84 Jenna Probst '22
Claire Foley '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 2 4 7 12 8 11 1 7 2 7 5 5 9 4 1 85 Sebby Turner '20
Patricia Corujo '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 9 5 2 4 6 8 3 1 10 4 6 4 7 7 9 85 Amanda Majernik '22
Kristen Tilley '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers A 12 8 10 3 12 9 12 3 7 6 10 9 6 6 5 118 Erin Sullivan '21
Emma Zalog '20
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels B 10 14 9 11 7 15 6 13 12 9 9 8 11 10 15 159 Natalie Tanczak '19
Maggie Macdonald '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats A 11 12 15 10 5 10 14 6 6 16 11 11 8 11 14 160 Margot Murray '21
Jillian Rochelle '21
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels A 3 9 11 8 14 12 11 14 9 10 14 12 13 13 8 161 Christina Black '19
Kayla Simmons '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 13 10 13 13 13 14 9 8 8 13 8 13 10 8 10 163 Lera Anders '22
Audrey Becker '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 6 15 12 9 10 6 8 9 13 11 13 14 12 12 13 163 Alexandra Talbot '22
Paige Tyler '22
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers B 15 11 6 14 11 7 13 15 14 12 12 10 14 9 11 174 Caroline Skotarzak '21
Anna Graves '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats B 14 13 14 15 16 13 16 11 16 15 16 15 16 16 12 218 Audrey Debruine '19
Zoe Detweiler '21
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines B 16 16 16 16 15 16 15 16 15 14 15 16 15 15 16 232 Ambika Agrawal '20
Lily Sylvester '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red111222333444555
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen222111161616151515141414
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines666555444333222
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats333444555666777
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers777888999101010111111
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels444333222111161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos555666777888999
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers888777666555444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red999101010111111121212131313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen101010999888777666
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines141414131313121212111111101010
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats111111121212131313141414151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers151515161616111222333
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels121212111111101010999888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos131313141414151515161616111
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers161616151515141414131313121212

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From S (178°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1018.2 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →