University of Michigan '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.36 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–35 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 10–17 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 9–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 19–35 against 20.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.49 | -0.51 | 0–11 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2022-04-08 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.52 | 1.12 | 6–6 | 8.6 | −1.41 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2022-04-02 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.47 | 5.47 | 4–0 | 3.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 45% |
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.30 | 1.86 | 1–14 | 1.3 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2019-04-13 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.83 | 2.66 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.83 | 1.0 | 20% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jenna Probst |  Orchard Park High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
