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MCSA Fall Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers White 46 16 62
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 38 30 68
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 33 39 72
4 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 43 35 78
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 46 41 87
6 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers Red 39 53 92
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 68 70 138
8 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 74 65 139
9 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 50 91 MRP 141 MRP
10 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 85 58 143
11 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 57 97 154
12 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 69 MRP 122 MRP 191 MRP
13 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 122 MRP 78 MRP 200 MRP
14 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 131 MRP 106 237 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 7 2 6 2 1 11 2 2 33 Carl Eaton '21
Kendall Van Horne '20
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 6 5 5 9 1 5 5 38 Jenna Probst '22
Sofia Gambini '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers Red 1 5 1 6 6 2 11 7 39 Jonathan Bailey '22
Dominika Lulewicz '21
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 9 10 3 4 4 9 1 43 Kevin Gallagher '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Christian Cyrul '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [1-2]
Kata Lamb '20 [3-4]
Thomas Szymanski '22 [5-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 7 8 1 11 6 1 8 46 Mark Davies '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryder Easterlin '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Will Davies '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Mitchell Moore '21 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers White 9 4 4 10 2 3 4 10 46 Tye Rubin '22
Patrick Stiles '22
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 6 10 2 4 7 9 8 4 50 Justin Falconer '19
Melanie Gainer '22
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 8 1 9 9 14 10 3 3 57 Brian Pribe '22
Alina Damico '22
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 10 8 7 7 8 8 7 13 68 Tom Rorrer '22
Jack Bertram '22
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 5 3 3 8 10 5 6 9 69 MRP Liam Walz '21
Nichole Kievit '19
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 11 11 11 12 3 7 13 6 74 Karl Wagerson '22
Etain Mckinney '22
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 12 12 12 11 5 12 10 11 85 Rishab Nayar '22
Mckenzie White '19
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 13 13 13 13 12 14 12 12 122 MRP David Resnick '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Spano '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Anastasia Sikkila '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Otenbaker '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 14 14 14 OCS 13 13 14 14 131 MRP Justin Edick '19
Conor Burns '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers White 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 16 Samuel Bartel '22
Richard Sundberg '21
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 3 1 2 8 6 2 6 30 Connor Goulet '21
Amy Baer '19
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6 8 6 3 3 4 4 1 35 Leah Peluchiwski '20
Chloe Frentzel '21
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 4 5 7 4 4 3 5 7 39 Clara Brown '22
Bailey Adkins '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 2 10 11 1 1 1 10 41 Lillian Nemeth '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [3-4]
Audrey Debruine '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Samuel Balka '20 [3-4]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers Red 12 7 5 9 5 7 6 2 53 Katie Carlson '22
Michael Lively '22
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 3 6 4 7 9 11 9 9 58 Mehmet Karatoprak '22
Dylan Morris '20
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 11 4 8 10 7 9 8 8 65 Solomon Dworsky '21
Jess Lyon '22
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 7 10 11 8 11 8 12 3 70 Sydney Maxwell '21
Adam Stollenwerk '22
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 9 9 3 5 6 5 10 11 78 MRP Mckenzie Frame '20
Cassidy Chalut '21
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 13 11 9 6 10 10 7 5 91 MRP Jacob Turenne '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Rivkin '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Ben Spring '22 [1-6]
Jacob Turenne '19 [7-8]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 8 12 13 DSQ 12 12 13 12 97 John Lowry '19
Caitlin Mutti '20
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 14 14 14 13 13 13 11 14 106 Andrew Barce '22
Ana Engelsman '21
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 10 13 12 12 14 14 14 13 122 MRP Sarah Corder '23
Mitchell Irwin '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers11335577
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen22141412121010
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini6644221414
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles33557799
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines779911111313
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers88664422
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats442214141212
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish991111131311
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers5577991111
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets1010886644
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1313113355
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos14141212101088
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers Red111113131133
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers White121210108866

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers22446688
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen111313111199
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini5533111313
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles4466881010
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines88101012121414
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers77553311
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats331113131111
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish10101212141422
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers668810101212
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets99775533
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1414224466
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos131311119977
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers Red121214142244
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers White1111997755
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Liam Walz '21 Nichole Kievit '19
Lakers Sarah Corder '23 Mitchell Irwin '22
Hope College Hope College Justin Edick '19 Conor Burns '21
Flying Dutchmen Andrew Barce '22 Ana Engelsman '21
Marquette University Marquette University Karl Wagerson '22 Etain Mckinney '22
Golden Eagles Solomon Dworsky '21 Jess Lyon '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Mark Davies '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryder Easterlin '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Will Davies '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Mitchell Moore '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Wildcats Lillian Nemeth '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [3-4]		 Audrey Debruine '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Samuel Balka '20 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Rishab Nayar '22 Mckenzie White '19
Boilermakers Mehmet Karatoprak '22 Dylan Morris '20
University of Illinois University of Illinois Justin Falconer '19 Melanie Gainer '22
Illini Jacob Turenne '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Rivkin '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Ben Spring '22 [1-6]
Jacob Turenne '19 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Jenna Probst '22 Sofia Gambini '19
Wolverines Connor Goulet '21 Amy Baer '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Carl Eaton '21 Kendall Van Horne '20
Gophers Clara Brown '22 Bailey Adkins '19
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Kevin Gallagher '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Christian Cyrul '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [1-2]
Kata Lamb '20 [3-4]
Thomas Szymanski '22 [5-8]
Fighting Irish Leah Peluchiwski '20 Chloe Frentzel '21
University of Toledo University of Toledo Brian Pribe '22 Alina Damico '22
Rockets John Lowry '19 Caitlin Mutti '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Jonathan Bailey '22 Dominika Lulewicz '21
Badgers Red Katie Carlson '22 Michael Lively '22
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Tye Rubin '22 Patrick Stiles '22
Badgers White Samuel Bartel '22 Richard Sundberg '21
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Tom Rorrer '22 Jack Bertram '22
Panthers Sydney Maxwell '21 Adam Stollenwerk '22
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University David Resnick '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Spano '21 [3-4, 7-8]		 Anastasia Sikkila '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Otenbaker '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Broncos Mckenzie Frame '20 Cassidy Chalut '21

Conditions — 11/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.5 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Michigan: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →