University of Notre Dame '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.28 (fleet 1.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–12 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 5–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 5–12 against 7.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.52 | 0.66 | 2–10 | 3.4 | −0.86 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2022-04-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.51 | 0.82 | 3–2 | 3.5 | −0.69 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 1.36 |
| Fall Fury | Crew | B | 4 | 5.8 | — |
| Cary Price | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.0 | 1.01 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Shamrock Scramble | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.0 | 3.15 |
| Emma Biagioni | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.7 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| 1st Year Ice Breaker | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 1.08 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Fall Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nicholas Peluchiwski |  Latin School of Chicago |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
