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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 19 10 29
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 22 17 39
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 25 38 63
4 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 35 39 74
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 51 24 75
6 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 33 46 79
7 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 50 30 80
8 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 45 80 125
9 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 69 64 133
10 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 82 59 141
11 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 75 72 147
12 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 69 84 153
13 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 76 89 165
14 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 84 83 167
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 6 3 1 5 1 2 19 Christian Spencer '22
Allison Hansen '23
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 6 4 1 5 1 2 3 22 Ella Reinemann '23
Cristina Dombrowski '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 7 1 4 7 2 3 1 25 Sherman Thompson '22
Lily Allen '23
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2 2 2 10 5 10 33 Aragorn Crozier '24
Maya Outhred '24
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 3 6 3 8 4 8 35 Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-7]
Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-4]
Marcelo Bernath Piccolotto '22 [5-7]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 4 9 7 6 7 7 5 45 Odey Hariri '24
Stephen Walters '23
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 5 8 13 4 6 8 6 50 Rachel Bartel '24
Phillip Thoma '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 8 5 9 9 4 12 4 51 Luciana Solorzano '24
Asha Baddi '24
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 10 13 11 10 3 13 9 69 Grace Goszkowicz '22 [1-7]
Audrey Kaczmarek '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Laura Prince '24 [3-4, 7]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 12 7 5 12 12 14 7 69 Eva Rossell '23
Brandon Baswell '22
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 9 11 10 11 13 9 12 75 Emma Turner '23 [1-7]
Michaela Maclean '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Horvat '24 [3-4, 7]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 13 10 12 8 11 11 11 76 Donny Marwin '22
William Blacketor '24
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 14 12 14 14 9 6 13 82 Luke Kleinrichert '24
Carly Irwin '25
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 11 14 8 13 14 10 14 84 Clara Brown '22 [1-6]
Valerie Schuster '22 [7]
Sophie Inglis '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Valerie Schuster '22 [3-4]
Clara Brown '22 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 10 Samuel Bartel '22 [1-7]
Lucas Quinn '23 [1-4, 7]
Noah Hallerman '23 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 2 3 1 2 2 3 4 17 Hailey Feinzig '22
Kate Thickens '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 5 6 3 4 1 2 3 24 Isabel Dziuba '23
Abigail Paul '25
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 6 2 5 3 7 5 2 30 Greg Bittle '25
Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 4 7 6 5 7 6 38 Samuel Ephraim '22
Victoria O’Hara '22
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4 10 4 5 4 4 8 39 Joseph Gallagher '24 [1-7]
Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [1-4]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [5-7]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 8 7 6 8 6 6 5 46 Erin Pamplin '24 [1-4]
Samuel Delasanta '24 [5-7]
Amelia Kau '23 [1-4]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 7 5 12 9 8 11 7 59 Sarah Corder '23
Maddy Gallagher '22
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 9 9 9 7 10 10 10 64 Jennifer Falkner '24 [1-7]
Spencer Turbin '24 [1-4, 7]
Charles Soucey '22 [5-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 11 8 11 12 9 9 12 72 Patrick Mckeever '24 [1-7]
Frannie Lambie '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Elaina Kobal '24 [3-4, 7]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 10 12 10 10 11 13 14 80 Courtney Hamilton '22
Daniel Burns '22
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 14 13 8 11 14 12 11 83 John Cayen '24 [1-6]
Joseph Morris '22 [7]
Quinn Rowe '22 [1-2, 5-7]
Joseph Morris '22 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 13 14 14 14 12 8 9 84 Corinne Nedeau '22
Alexander Maas '24
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 12 11 13 13 13 14 13 89 Mathieu St. Amour '21
Shep Thieme '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133557
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen2244668
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles3355779
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 1991111131315
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 210101212141416
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans44668810
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One55779911
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers1111131315151
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1212141416162
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers6688101012
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommie13131515113
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies14141616224
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers151511335
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers161622446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers2244668
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen3355779
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles44668810
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 110101212141416
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 21111131315151
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans55779911
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One6688101012
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers1212141416162
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish13131515113
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers7799111113
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommie14141616224
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies151511335
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers161622446
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Luke Kleinrichert '24 Carly Irwin '25
Lakers Sarah Corder '23 Maddy Gallagher '22
Hope College Hope College Grace Goszkowicz '22 [1-7] Audrey Kaczmarek '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Laura Prince '24 [3-4, 7]
Flying Dutchmen Jennifer Falkner '24 [1-7] Spencer Turbin '24 [1-4, 7]
Charles Soucey '22 [5-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Emma Turner '23 [1-7] Michaela Maclean '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Horvat '24 [3-4, 7]
Golden Eagles Patrick Mckeever '24 [1-7] Frannie Lambie '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Elaina Kobal '24 [3-4, 7]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Eva Rossell '23 Brandon Baswell '22
Spartans Corinne Nedeau '22 Alexander Maas '24
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Donny Marwin '22 William Blacketor '24
Husky One Mathieu St. Amour '21 Shep Thieme '25
Purdue University Purdue University Odey Hariri '24 Stephen Walters '23
Boilermakers Courtney Hamilton '22 Daniel Burns '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Sherman Thompson '22 Lily Allen '23
Wolverines 1 Samuel Ephraim '22 Victoria O’Hara '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Luciana Solorzano '24 Asha Baddi '24
Wolverines 2 Isabel Dziuba '23 Abigail Paul '25
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Clara Brown '22 [1-6]
Valerie Schuster '22 [7]		 Sophie Inglis '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Valerie Schuster '22 [3-4]
Clara Brown '22 [7]
Gophers John Cayen '24 [1-6]
Joseph Morris '22 [7]		 Quinn Rowe '22 [1-2, 5-7]
Joseph Morris '22 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-7] Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-4]
Marcelo Bernath Piccolotto '22 [5-7]
Fighting Irish Joseph Gallagher '24 [1-7] Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [1-4]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [5-7]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Rachel Bartel '24 Phillip Thoma '23
Tommie Greg Bittle '25 Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Washington University of Washington Aragorn Crozier '24 Maya Outhred '24
Huskies Erin Pamplin '24 [1-4]
Samuel Delasanta '24 [5-7]		 Amelia Kau '23 [1-4]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Christian Spencer '22 Allison Hansen '23
Badgers Samuel Bartel '22 [1-7] Lucas Quinn '23 [1-4, 7]
Noah Hallerman '23 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Ella Reinemann '23 Cristina Dombrowski '23
Honey Badgers Hailey Feinzig '22 Kate Thickens '23

Conditions — 09/11/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1010.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →