University of Notre Dame '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 (fleet 1.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–15 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 7–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 14–15 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.70 | 2.71 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +1.01 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2022-04-08 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.59 | 0.73 | 2–10 | 3.4 | −0.86 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2022-04-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.36 | 1.33 | 5–2 | 5.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 1.88 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Rebecca Blank | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 2.19 |
| MCSA Open Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.9 | 2.09 |
| Laker Showdown | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.0 | 2.30 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 1.88 |
| First Year Icebreaker | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.2 | 2.50 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Morton Schapiro Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 1.75 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 2.50 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 1.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
