| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of Toledo | Rockets | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Michigan State University | Spartans | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Northern Michigan University | Wildcats | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 22 matches (96%) with a log-loss of 0.321 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.33 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 79% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | University of Toledo | 1.91 | 3.36 | 3–3 | 1.9 | +1.45 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 1 | University of Michigan | 4.85 | 5.39 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 3 | Northwestern University | 3.85 | 4.07 | 4–2 | 3.8 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2 | University of Notre Dame | 4.57 | 4.54 | 5–2 | 5.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | University of Wisconsin | 3.65 | 2.91 | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.74 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 6 | Michigan State University | 2.09 | 1.16 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.93 | 0.4 | 93% |
| 7 | Northern Michigan University | 0.40 | -2.60 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Taylor | University of Toledo | 1.33 | 2.78 | 3–3 | 1.9 | +1.45 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Nicholas Silecky | University of Toledo | -0.83 | 0.54 | 2–3 | 1.1 | +1.37 | 0.9 | 25% |
| Brian Pribe | University of Toledo | 0.87 | 1.55 | 2–2 | 1.7 | +0.68 | 0.2 | 64% |
| Samuel Ephraim | University of Michigan | 1.14 | 1.68 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 54% |
| Diego Torres | Northwestern University | 0.11 | 0.33 | 4–2 | 3.8 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Thomas Szymanski | University of Notre Dame | 1.58 | 1.55 | 5–2 | 5.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Joseph Gallagher | University of Notre Dame | 1.36 | 1.33 | 5–2 | 5.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Phineas Tait | University of Wisconsin | 0.64 | -0.10 | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.74 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Naveen Kumanan | Michigan State University | 0.77 | -0.17 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.93 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Branden Palarz | Northern Michigan University | -0.52 | -3.52 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Scott Minshall | Northern Michigan University | -0.56 | -3.56 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wolverines | Irish | Wildcats | Badgers | Rockets | Spartans | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 6–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 4–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 3–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Toledo Rockets | 3–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Michigan State University Spartans | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northern Michigan University Wildcats | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wolverines | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Rockets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Badgers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wolverines | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Badgers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rockets | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rockets | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Wolverines | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rockets | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rockets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Badgers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rockets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolverines | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Wolverines | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
