University of Michigan '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–8 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 24–8 against 24.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.47 | 0.95 | 7–3 | 7.9 | −0.52 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2023-04-14 | MCSA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.40 | 1.37 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2022-04-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.10 | 1.64 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 54% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Brody Schwartz |  Whitney Young |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
