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MCSA Open Team Racing Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 11–4
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 11–4
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 11–4
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9–6
5 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2–13
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,185 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 45 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.366 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Purdue University
Boilermakers		34.42
school −0.14		Odey Hariri / Nok In Chan
Justin Skene / Zachary Gold
Lukas Diehm / William Bernhardt		59%11–4 (73%)+2.1
2University of Wisconsin
Badgers		15.79
school −0.50, home +0.44		Reed Weston / Allison Hansen
Charlie Herrick / Kerstin Hyer 1.63
Lucas Quinn / Lauren Bemis 1.80		85%11–4 (73%)−1.8
3University of Michigan
Wolverines		25.15
school −0.15		Joe Serpa / Asha Baddi 2.11
Brody Schwartz / Lily Allen 1.40
Christiana Scheibner / Abigail Paul 1.72		74%11–4 (73%)−0.1
4Northwestern University
Wildcats		44.05
school −0.07		Nikolas Chambers / Aviva Kaplan 1.62
Matthew Beretta / Cora Star
Nicholas Chesemore / Maddie Fitzgerald		52%9–6 (60%)+1.2
5University of Saint Thomas
Tommies		52.29Greg Bittle / Nisha Kimber
Rakesh Dhiman / Andre Bedros
Conall Lynch / Meriah Kirschstein		21%2–13 (13%)−1.1
6Marquette University
Golden Eagles		61.44
school −0.35		Jenna Kozal / Frannie Lambie
John Riordan / Eva Paschke
Eli Erling / Zach Sonkin		9%1–14 (7%)−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Purdue University4.425.3611–48.9+0.941.414%
4Northwestern University4.054.579–67.8+0.520.531%
3University of Michigan5.155.1211–411.1−0.030.066%
6Marquette University1.441.051–141.4−0.390.179%
5University of Saint Thomas2.291.482–133.1−0.810.691%
2University of Wisconsin5.794.9111–412.8−0.881.295%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Lukas DiehmPurdue University1.172.1011–48.9+0.941.414%
Matthew BerettaNorthwestern University1.171.699–67.8+0.520.531%
Nicholas ChesemoreNorthwestern University1.121.659–67.8+0.520.531%
Eli ErlingMarquette University0.490.091–141.4−0.390.179%
Conall LynchUniversity of Saint Thomas-0.25-1.062–133.1−0.810.691%
Lucas QuinnUniversity of Wisconsin1.800.9211–412.8−0.881.295%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Northwestern UniversityPurdue University47%upset
12University of MichiganUniversity of Saint Thomas96%
13University of WisconsinMarquette University99%
14University of MichiganNorthwestern University77%
15Purdue UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin18%upset
16Marquette UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas32%upset
17University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin36%upset
18Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas87%
19Purdue UniversityMarquette University95%
110University of WisconsinUniversity of Saint Thomas97%
111University of MichiganPurdue University69%
112Northwestern UniversityMarquette University93%
113Purdue UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas89%
114University of WisconsinNorthwestern University85%
115University of MichiganMarquette University98%
216Purdue UniversityNorthwestern University59%
217University of MichiganUniversity of Saint Thomas95%
218University of WisconsinMarquette University99%
219University of MichiganNorthwestern University75%
220University of WisconsinPurdue University79%
221University of Saint ThomasMarquette University70%
222University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan66%
223Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas85%
224Purdue UniversityMarquette University95%
225University of WisconsinUniversity of Saint Thomas97%
226Purdue UniversityUniversity of Michigan34%upset
227Northwestern UniversityMarquette University93%
228Purdue UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas89%
229University of WisconsinNorthwestern University85%
230University of MichiganMarquette University97%
331Northwestern UniversityPurdue University39%upset
332University of MichiganUniversity of Saint Thomas94%
333University of WisconsinMarquette University99%
334University of MichiganNorthwestern University74%
335Purdue UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin22%upset
336University of Saint ThomasMarquette University71%
337University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan66%
338Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas84%
339Purdue UniversityMarquette University95%
340University of WisconsinUniversity of Saint Thomas97%
341Purdue UniversityUniversity of Michigan36%upset
342Northwestern UniversityMarquette University93%
343Purdue UniversityUniversity of Saint Thomas89%
344Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin15%upset
345University of MichiganMarquette University97%

Round 1

TeamRec.BoilermakersBadgersWolverinesWildcatsTommiesEagles
Purdue University Boilermakers3–2✕WLLWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–2L✕LWWW
University of Michigan Wolverines5–0WW✕WWW
Northwestern University Wildcats3–2WLL✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies0–5LLLL✕L
Marquette University Golden Eagles1–4LLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BoilermakersBadgersWolverinesWildcatsTommiesEagles
Purdue University Boilermakers4–1✕LWWWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers5–0W✕WWWW
University of Michigan Wolverines3–2LL✕WWW
Northwestern University Wildcats2–3LLL✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–4LLLL✕W
Marquette University Golden Eagles0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BoilermakersBadgersWolverinesWildcatsTommiesEagles
Purdue University Boilermakers4–1✕WWLWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–2L✕WLWW
University of Michigan Wolverines3–2LL✕WWW
Northwestern University Wildcats4–1WWL✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–4LLLL✕W
Marquette University Golden Eagles0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-6 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-4-5
2 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
4 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-6
5 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
6 Marquette University Golden Eagles 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
7 University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
8 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
9 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
11 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-5-6
12 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-4-6
13 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
14 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
15 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-4-6
16 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
17 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
19 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-5-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
21 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-3-6 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-4-5
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 2-4-6
23 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-5
24 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-4-6
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
26 Purdue University Boilermakers 2-3-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-6
27 Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 1-5-6
28 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-3-4 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-5-6
29 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
30 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-5-6
31 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
32 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
33 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
34 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-5
35 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-6
36 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-2-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-4-6
37 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-6
38 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
39 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
40 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
41 Purdue University Boilermakers 2-3-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-5-6
42 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
43 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-4 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-5-6
44 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
45 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-5-6

Conditions — 04/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1007.3 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From S (177°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1007.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Wisconsin — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Wisconsin in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled fleet-race days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →