Purdue University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 (fleet 1.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–4 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 11–4 against 8.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | MCSA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.17 | 2.10 | 11–4 | 8.9 | +0.94 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Open Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | 0.98 |
| Hammer Showdown | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 1.95 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.2 | 2.05 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 2.19 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 1.74 |
| Boiler Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 3.45 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Laker Showdown | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 0.78 |
| Hammer Showdown | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| College Sailing Regional Teams Nat'l Invitational | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.6 | 1.70 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Morton Shapiro PhD Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 1.76 |
| Boiler Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.2 | 2.54 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
