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Morton Shapiro PhD Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 6 8 14
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 15 20 35
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 15 20 35
4 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 18 26 44
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 24 30 54
6 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 39 17 56
7 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 33 25 58
8 Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 34 36 70
9 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 42 44 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 2 1 1 1 6 Jonathan Bailey '22
Anna Thickens '21
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 5 2 2 4 15 Thomas Quinn '22 [1-5]
Avery Zieper '22 [1-4]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [5]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4 3 3 3 2 15 Trevor Trepton '19
Noah Hallerman '23
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 3 1 7 4 3 18 Tarkan Bolat '22
Melanie Gainer '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 4 4 6 5 24 Christiana Scheibner '23 [1-5]
Kira Biener '23 [1-2, 5]
Alejandra Duque Gallagher '23 [3-4]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 6 6 6 9 6 33 Justin Smith '22 [1-2]
Bay Hodge '21 [3-5]
Juni Terry '22 [1-2]
Katie Chong '22 [3-5]
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 7 7 8 5 7 34 Arthur Brown '22 [1-5]
Kaloyan Parvanov '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Jacqueline Knobben '20 [3]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 9 DNF 5 7 8 39 Edward Marcheselli '19
Macy Baxter '22
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 8 8 9 8 9 42 Jack Bertram '22
Oscar Strieter '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 1 2 2 1 8 Patrick Schmidt '22 [1-5]
Elisabeth Johanson '22 [1]
Katie Carlson '22 [2-5]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 7 3 3 1 3 17 Lukas Diehm '23
William Popovich '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 7 6 4 2 20 Nikolas Chambers '23 [1, 3-5]
Avery Zieper '22 [2]
Anneliese Slamowitz '22 [1-3, 5]
Jay Jachinowski '22 [4]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 8 1 3 5 20 Ella Reinemann '23
Larissa Carroll '20
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 4 4 4 6 7 25 Nick Nowicki '20 [1-5]
Katie Chong '22 [1]
Lok Tin Li '22 [2-5]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 6 6 5 5 4 26 Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20
Bahda Hoang '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 5 7 7 6 30 Samuel Ephraim '22 [1-5]
Hannah Lemos '23 [1-2, 5]
Ethan Almquist '23 [3-4]
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 8 2 9 9 8 36 Katy Shadek '20 [1-5]
Allie Caskey '21 [1-2, 4-5]
Laurel Robbins '23 [3]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 9 DSQ 8 8 9 44 Joseph Miotke '20
Adam Stollenwerk '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons1111131315
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini1212141416
Lake Forest CollegeLake Forest College Foresters77101012
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines131315157
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats88111113
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers1010121214
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers16168811
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1141416168
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 215157710

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons1212141416
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini131315157
Lake Forest CollegeLake Forest College Foresters88111113
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines141416168
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats1010121214
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers1111131315
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers77101012
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 115157710
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 216168811
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Arthur Brown '22 [1-5] Kaloyan Parvanov '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Jacqueline Knobben '20 [3]
Foresters Katy Shadek '20 [1-5] Allie Caskey '21 [1-2, 4-5]
Laurel Robbins '23 [3]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Thomas Quinn '22 [1-5] Avery Zieper '22 [1-4]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [5]
Wildcats Nikolas Chambers '23 [1, 3-5]
Avery Zieper '22 [2]		 Anneliese Slamowitz '22 [1-3, 5]
Jay Jachinowski '22 [4]
Purdue University Purdue University Edward Marcheselli '19 Macy Baxter '22
Boilermakers Lukas Diehm '23 William Popovich '22
University of Chicago University of Chicago Justin Smith '22 [1-2]
Bay Hodge '21 [3-5]		 Juni Terry '22 [1-2]
Katie Chong '22 [3-5]
Maroons Nick Nowicki '20 [1-5] Katie Chong '22 [1]
Lok Tin Li '22 [2-5]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Tarkan Bolat '22 Melanie Gainer '22
Illini Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20 Bahda Hoang '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Christiana Scheibner '23 [1-5] Kira Biener '23 [1-2, 5]
Alejandra Duque Gallagher '23 [3-4]
Wolverines Samuel Ephraim '22 [1-5] Hannah Lemos '23 [1-2, 5]
Ethan Almquist '23 [3-4]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Jonathan Bailey '22 Anna Thickens '21
Badgers 1 Patrick Schmidt '22 [1-5] Elisabeth Johanson '22 [1]
Katie Carlson '22 [2-5]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Trevor Trepton '19 Noah Hallerman '23
Badgers 2 Ella Reinemann '23 Larissa Carroll '20
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Jack Bertram '22 Oscar Strieter '21
Panthers Joseph Miotke '20 Adam Stollenwerk '22

Conditions — 10/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.0 kn
avg  ·  max 17.3 kn
Gusts to 35.0 kn
From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1013.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn · SW 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →