MCSA Fall Championship

HostChicago
Date11/05/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Chicago	Maroons	41	9	50
2	Purdue University	Boilermakers	30	22	52
3	Michigan State University	Spartans	20	39	59
4	Northwestern University	Wildcats	22	42	64
5	University of Michigan	Wolverines	25	40	65
6	Marquette University	Golden Eagles	38	28	66
7	Michigan Technological University	Husky One	36	51	87
8	Indiana University	Hoosiers	41	49	90
9	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	63	41	104
10	Washington University	Bears	41	64	105
11	Wildcats	Wildcats	80	51	131
12	University of Saint Thomas	Tommies	67	76	143
13	Broncos	Broncos	91	68	159
14	Ohio State University	Buckeyes	78	85	163
15	Grand Valley State University	Lakers	88	89	177

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Michigan State University	Spartans	1	1	RDG	RDG	2	8	20	Dougie Cowan '26 Aidan King '25
Northwestern University	Wildcats	8	4	2	1	1	6	22	Nikolas Chambers '23 Aviva Kaplan '24
University of Michigan	Wolverines	2	7	9	2	4	1	25	Joe Serpa '24 Alden Gort '26
Purdue University	Boilermakers	7	6	1	3	11	2	30	Lukas Diehm '23 William Bernhardt '25
Michigan Technological University	Husky One	3	2	5	OCS	7	3	36	Andrew Michels '25 [1-6] Nick Myneni '26 [1-2] Cecilia Dietsch '26 [3-4] Russell English '22 [5-6]
Marquette University	Golden Eagles	13	3	4	6	5	7	38	Eric Hoyerman '23 Jenna Kozal '24
University of Chicago	Maroons	4	10	6	10	6	5	41	Max Zhalilo '26 [1-6] Natalie Manley '24 [1-2] Anjali Van Biesen '23 [3-6]
Indiana University	Hoosiers	5	9	7	8	3	9	41	John Hultquist '23 [1-6] Delaynie Grove '24 [1-2] Taylor Longhitano '23 [3-4] Fiona Naughton '26 [5-6]
Washington University	Bears	6	8	10	4	9	4	41	Thomas Marino '26 Lillian Nystrom '23
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	OCS	5	8	OCS	8	10	63	Calvin Lutton '26 Benjamin Weinstein '23
University of Saint Thomas	Tommies	9	11	12	7	DNF	12	67	Rakesh Dhiman '26 Meriah Kirschstein '24
Ohio State University	Buckeyes	12	13	DNF	DNF	10	11	78	Emily Williams '25 [1-6] Lindsey Allen '25 [1-2] Jolene Jirousek '25 [3-6]
Wildcats	Wildcats	DNF	12	11	9	DNS	DNS	80
Grand Valley State University	Lakers	10	14	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	88	Carly Irwin '25 Garrett Szlachta '25
Broncos	Broncos	11	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	91

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
University of Chicago	Maroons	3	1	1	1	1	2	9	Charlotte Kane '23 [1-2] Christian Ehrnrooth '24 [3-6] Claire Zhang '24 [1-2] Natalie Manley '24 [3-6]
Purdue University	Boilermakers	1	2	6	4	8	1	22	Justin Skene '24 Odey Hariri '24
Marquette University	Golden Eagles	5	5	2	5	7	4	28	Brittany Shabino '25 Eva Paschke '25
Michigan State University	Spartans	4	4	3	8	4	DSQ	39	Dominique Delano '23 Luke Koerschner '24
University of Michigan	Wolverines	2	9	5	3	5	DSQ	40	Brody Schwartz '24 Anna Howell '26
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	8	3	12	7	6	5	41	Noah Hallerman '23 Ethan Jones '24
Northwestern University	Wildcats	10	8	8	6	3	7	42	Matthew Beretta '23 [1-6] Cora Star '26 [1-2] Maddie Fitzgerald '26 [3-6]
Indiana University	Hoosiers	11	6	7	9	10	6	49	Nithya Balachander '25 [1-4] Peter Grumbling '23 [5-6] Peter Grumbling '23 [1-4] Katherine Naughton '24 [5-6]
Wildcats	Wildcats	6	7	4	2	DNS	DNS	51
Michigan Technological University	Husky One	DNF	11	9	10	2	3	51	Nick Myneni '26 [1-6] Fritz Jaeger '25 [1-2] Cecilia Dietsch '26 [3-6]
Washington University	Bears	7	12	DNF	12	9	8	64	Meredith Moore '23 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Sullivan '24 [3-4] Matthew Sullivan '24 [1-2, 5-6] Meredith Moore '23 [3-4]
Broncos	Broncos	12	10	11	13	12	10	68
University of Saint Thomas	Tommies	DNF	DNF	13	11	11	9	76	Conall Lynch '24 Jeff Filmalter '23
Ohio State University	Buckeyes	13	DNF	10	14	DNS	DNS	85	Noah Troyer '25 Mason Shaw '26
Grand Valley State University	Lakers	9	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	89	Reid Kwiatkowski '26 Reed Rossell '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
University of Chicago Maroons	16	16	18	18	20	20
Grand Valley State University Lakers	6	6	8	8	11	11
Indiana University Hoosiers	7	7	10	10	12	12
Marquette University Golden Eagles	8	8	11	11	13	13
University of Michigan Wolverines	17	17	19	19	21	21
Michigan State University Spartans	10	10	12	12	14	14
Michigan Technological University Husky One	11	11	13	13	15	15
Wildcats Wildcats	12	12	14	14	16	16
Northwestern University Wildcats	13	13	15	15	17	17
Ohio State University Buckeyes	14	14	16	16	18	18
Purdue University Boilermakers	15	15	17	17	19	19
University of Saint Thomas Tommies	18	18	20	20	6	6
Washington University Bears	20	20	6	6	8	8
Broncos Broncos	21	21	7	7	10	10
University of Wisconsin Badgers	19	19	21	21	7	7

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
University of Chicago Maroons	17	17	19	19	21	21
Grand Valley State University Lakers	7	7	10	10	12	12
Indiana University Hoosiers	8	8	11	11	13	13
Marquette University Golden Eagles	10	10	12	12	14	14
University of Michigan Wolverines	18	18	20	20	6	6
Michigan State University Spartans	11	11	13	13	15	15
Michigan Technological University Husky One	12	12	14	14	16	16
Wildcats Wildcats	13	13	15	15	17	17
Northwestern University Wildcats	14	14	16	16	18	18
Ohio State University Buckeyes	15	15	17	17	19	19
Purdue University Boilermakers	16	16	18	18	20	20
University of Saint Thomas Tommies	19	19	21	21	7	7
Washington University Bears	21	21	7	7	10	10
Broncos Broncos	6	6	8	8	11	11
University of Wisconsin Badgers	20	20	6	6	8	8

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Grand Valley State University	Carly Irwin '25	Garrett Szlachta '25
Lakers	Reid Kwiatkowski '26	Reed Rossell '25
Indiana University	John Hultquist '23 [1-6]	Delaynie Grove '24 [1-2] Taylor Longhitano '23 [3-4] Fiona Naughton '26 [5-6]
Hoosiers	Nithya Balachander '25 [1-4] Peter Grumbling '23 [5-6]	Peter Grumbling '23 [1-4] Katherine Naughton '24 [5-6]
Marquette University	Eric Hoyerman '23	Jenna Kozal '24
Golden Eagles	Brittany Shabino '25	Eva Paschke '25
Michigan State University	Dougie Cowan '26	Aidan King '25
Spartans	Dominique Delano '23	Luke Koerschner '24
Michigan Technological University	Andrew Michels '25 [1-6]	Nick Myneni '26 [1-2] Cecilia Dietsch '26 [3-4] Russell English '22 [5-6]
Husky One	Nick Myneni '26 [1-6]	Fritz Jaeger '25 [1-2] Cecilia Dietsch '26 [3-6]
Northwestern University	Nikolas Chambers '23	Aviva Kaplan '24
Wildcats	Matthew Beretta '23 [1-6]	Cora Star '26 [1-2] Maddie Fitzgerald '26 [3-6]
Ohio State University	Emily Williams '25 [1-6]	Lindsey Allen '25 [1-2] Jolene Jirousek '25 [3-6]
Buckeyes	Noah Troyer '25	Mason Shaw '26
Purdue University	Lukas Diehm '23	William Bernhardt '25
Boilermakers	Justin Skene '24	Odey Hariri '24
University of Chicago	Max Zhalilo '26 [1-6]	Natalie Manley '24 [1-2] Anjali Van Biesen '23 [3-6]
Maroons	Charlotte Kane '23 [1-2] Christian Ehrnrooth '24 [3-6]	Claire Zhang '24 [1-2] Natalie Manley '24 [3-6]
University of Michigan	Joe Serpa '24	Alden Gort '26
Wolverines	Brody Schwartz '24	Anna Howell '26
University of Saint Thomas	Rakesh Dhiman '26	Meriah Kirschstein '24
Tommies	Conall Lynch '24	Jeff Filmalter '23
University of Wisconsin	Calvin Lutton '26	Benjamin Weinstein '23
Badgers	Noah Hallerman '23	Ethan Jones '24
Washington University	Thomas Marino '26	Lillian Nystrom '23
Bears	Meredith Moore '23 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Sullivan '24 [3-4]	Matthew Sullivan '24 [1-2, 5-6] Meredith Moore '23 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 998.4 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

25.3 kn

avg · max 29.5 kn

Gusts to 45.3 kn

From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.6 hrs Humidity72% Pressure998.4 hPa Rain0.16 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 25 kn* · SW 14 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Chicago: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.21)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.21

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.21 means a rating gap counts about 18% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chicago by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Chicago, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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