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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 16 10 26
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 24 13 37
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 20 22 42
4 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 18 37 55
5 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 35 26 61
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 44 70 114
7 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 68 47 115
8 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 47 71 118
9 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 74 53 127
10 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 69 70 139
11 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 79 65 144
12 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 67 85 152
13 Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 96 MRP 88 MRP 184 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2 3 2 1 2 4 16 Reed Weston '23
Allison Hansen '23
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 4 1 1 6 2 1 3 18 William Turner '24
Ian Bosse '25
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 4 1 4 6 1 20 Joe Serpa '24
Asha Baddi '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 3 6 2 3 3 5 2 24 Marissa Tegeder '25
Sophie Lusty '24
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 5 7 5 4 6 3 5 35 Lukas Diehm '23
William Bernhardt '25
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 6 5 8 7 5 7 6 44 Joaquin Lopez '25
Zach Sonkin '24
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 7 4 6 8 7 4 11 47 Rakesh Dhiman '26
Meriah Kirschstein '24
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 9 8 12 10 9 12 7 67 Chance Spencer '23
William Blacketor '24
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 8 9 13 5 12 13 8 68 Carly Irwin '25
Garrett Szlachta '25
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 10 10 9 9 10 8 13 69 Brynna Smith '22
Alexander Maas '24
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 11 11 7 13 13 10 9 74 John Cayen '24
Ella Finnegan '24
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 13 13 10 11 11 9 12 79 Cate Peerbolte '23 [1-2, 7]
Jack Bergman '24 [3-6]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Casey Flammini '24 [3-4, 7]
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 12 12 11 12 8 11 10 96 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 10 Abe Weston '25
Cristina Dombrowski '23
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 13 Mary Castellini '25
Ellie Murphy '24
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 2 4 4 2 3 4 22 Christiana Scheibner '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Brody Schwartz '24 [3-4]
Abigail Paul '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Gwendolyn Hudson '24 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 4 4 3 3 5 4 3 26 Odey Hariri '24
Alex Amado '26
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 6 5 6 5 4 5 6 37 Samantha Bialek '24
Griffin Sanders '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 47 Reid Kwiatkowski '26
Reed Rossell '25
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 5 7 5 7 13 9 7 53 Isaac Sparber '26 [1-7]
Drake Mayer '26 [1-4]
Kellen Crum '26 [5-7]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 9 8 13 13 9 8 5 65 Jack Rutherford '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Laura Prince '24 [3-4]
Connor Bricco '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Kayla Devries '25 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 8 10 8 10 11 12 11 70 Eva Rossell '23
Spencer Margolis '26
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 12 13 11 8 7 6 13 70 Luqman Waheeduddin '24
Eva Paschke '25
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 10 12 9 11 10 10 9 71 Conall Lynch '24
Livia Wagner '24
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 13 11 12 12 12 13 12 85 Fritz Jaeger '25 [1]
Emma Stahl '23 [2-7]
Emma Stahl '23 [1]
Fritz Jaeger '25 [2, 5-7]
Sophia Jaeger '24 [3-4]
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 11 9 10 9 8 11 10 88 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers5577101012
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers6699111113
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen771010121214
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles991111131315
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines1414161618186
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans10101212141416
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One11111313151517
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers15151717557
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats12121414161618
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers1313151517175
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies16161818669
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1717557710
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers1818669911

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers6699111113
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers771010121214
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen991111131315
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles10101212141416
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines15151717557
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans11111313151517
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One12121414161618
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers16161818669
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats1313151517175
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers1414161618186
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies1717557710
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1818669911
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers5577101012
School / Team SkipperCrew
Clemson University Clemson University William Turner '24 Ian Bosse '25
Tigers Samantha Bialek '24 Griffin Sanders '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Carly Irwin '25 Garrett Szlachta '25
Lakers Reid Kwiatkowski '26 Reed Rossell '25
Hope College Hope College Cate Peerbolte '23 [1-2, 7]
Jack Bergman '24 [3-6]		 Gabriella Thomas '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Casey Flammini '24 [3-4, 7]
Flying Dutchmen Jack Rutherford '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Laura Prince '24 [3-4]		 Connor Bricco '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Kayla Devries '25 [3-4]
Marquette University Marquette University Joaquin Lopez '25 Zach Sonkin '24
Golden Eagles Luqman Waheeduddin '24 Eva Paschke '25
Michigan State University Michigan State University Brynna Smith '22 Alexander Maas '24
Spartans Eva Rossell '23 Spencer Margolis '26
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Chance Spencer '23 William Blacketor '24
Husky One Fritz Jaeger '25 [1]
Emma Stahl '23 [2-7]		 Emma Stahl '23 [1]
Fritz Jaeger '25 [2, 5-7]
Sophia Jaeger '24 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Lukas Diehm '23 William Bernhardt '25
Boilermakers Odey Hariri '24 Alex Amado '26
University of Michigan University of Michigan Joe Serpa '24 Asha Baddi '24
Wolverines Christiana Scheibner '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Brody Schwartz '24 [3-4]		 Abigail Paul '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Gwendolyn Hudson '24 [3-4]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota John Cayen '24 Ella Finnegan '24
Gophers Isaac Sparber '26 [1-7] Drake Mayer '26 [1-4]
Kellen Crum '26 [5-7]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Rakesh Dhiman '26 Meriah Kirschstein '24
Tommies Conall Lynch '24 Livia Wagner '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Reed Weston '23 Allison Hansen '23
Badgers Abe Weston '25 Cristina Dombrowski '23
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Marissa Tegeder '25 Sophie Lusty '24
Honey Badgers Mary Castellini '25 Ellie Murphy '24

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From W (275°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1016.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.53 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →