University of Wisconsin '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–4 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 11–4 against 12.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | MCSA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.18 | 1.30 | 11–4 | 12.8 | −0.88 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Open Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 13 | 14.1 | 2.75 |
| MCSA Open Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.1 | 3.29 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.4 | 3.08 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 3.39 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 2.26 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championships Round 1B | Skipper | A | 16 | 14.3 | 2.62 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.99 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Shamrock Scramble | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 1.57 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Reed Weston |  Oshkosh North High School |
'19 |
| ISSA | Reed Weston |  Oshkosh West High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
