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Shamrock Scramble

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 13 20 33
2 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 30 37 67
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 49 22 71
4 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 47 39 86
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 59 37 96
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 38 66 104
7 Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 69 70 139
8 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 66 85 151
9 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 84 78 162
10 John Carroll University John Carroll University John Carroll 102 101 203
11 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 105 114 219
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 13 Kevin Gallagher '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Christian Cyrul '20 [5-8]
Chloe Frentzel '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Kata Lamb '20 [5-8]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 4 3 2 1 7 2 1 3 4 3 30 Bobby Sessions '20
Etain Mckinney '22
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 5 4 3 2 5 3 3 2 5 6 38 Solomon Dworsky '21
John Condit '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 4 6 3 8 5 4 6 7 47 Sherman Thompson '22 [1-10]
Kira Biener '23 [1-6]
Nikita Shvaibovich '23 [7-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 7 6 5 4 2 7 6 7 3 2 49 Reed Weston '23
Elisabeth Johanson '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 5 6 5 4 6 4 6 DSQ 8 59 Thomas Quinn '22 [1-10]
Austin Porras '23 [1-8]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [9-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 10 10 9 9 6 4 7 5 2 4 66 Collin Kemper '22 [1-4]
Peter Pillari '21 [5-10]
Chloe Crusan '21 [1-4]
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 6 7 7 7 8 5 9 8 7 5 69 Grace Hillman '20
Mary Moir '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 84 James Kennedy '20
Naya Tadavarthy '22
John Carroll University John Carroll University John Carroll 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 DNF 102 Davis Crawford '22 [1-10]
Mary Sessions '22 [1-4]
Mollie Tirpak '23 [5-8]
Miriam Mcnea '23 [9-10]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 105 Garrett Hall '22 [1-10]
Drew Ayers '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Vannatta '22 [3-4, 7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 5 2 20 Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-4, 9-10]
Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [5-8]
Leah Peluchiwski '20 [1-4, 9-10]
Kelsey Kennedy '22 [5-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 5 22 Michael Lively '22
Benjamin Weinstein '23
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 5 2 4 4 2 3 5 4 4 4 37 Emma Turner '23
Makena Walsh '21
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 5 7 5 4 1 3 3 2 1 37 Marina Hutzler '23 [1-2, 5-10]
Matthew Beretta '23 [3-4]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [1-4]
Matthew Beretta '23 [5-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 4 3 3 5 5 4 5 3 3 39 Sarah Youtt '21
Cameron Burdgick '23
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 6 66 Colin Higgins '21 [1-10]
Cecilia Dietzler '21 [1-2]
Mia Peterson '22 [3-5]
Frannie Lambie '23 [6]
Evan Morast '20 [7-8]
Michaela Maclean '23 [9-10]
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 3 7 5 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 70 Grace Marcheselli '23 [1-10]
Emma Scheibert '23 [1-2, 6, 9-10]
Grace Graziano '22 [3-5, 7-8]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 6 9 78 Daniel Timofeev '22
Christopher Metzger '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 10 9 9 9 DNF 7 7 6 8 8 85 Megan O'Gorman '22
Nicholas Marshall '22
John Carroll University John Carroll University John Carroll 9 10 10 DNF 9 10 10 10 11 10 101 Thomas Wirbel '23 [1-5, 9-10]
Mary Sessions '22 [6-8]
Jane O'Connor '23 [1-2]
Bryce Zamecnik '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Adam Okuley '23 [5-6, 9-10]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes DNF 11 DNF DNF DNF 11 DNS 11 10 11 114 Lindsey Heben '23 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10]
Hannah Santantonio '21 [3-4, 7]
Catherine Mcclure '23 [1-4, 7, 9-10]
Hannah Santantonio '21 [5-6, 8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
John Carroll UniversityJohn Carroll University John Carroll1133557799
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 1224466881010
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 2335577991111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines779911112244
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats44668810101212
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1881010113355
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2991111224466
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3101011335577
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes557799111122
Saint Mary's CollegeSaint Mary's College Belles66881010121233
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers111122446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
John Carroll UniversityJohn Carroll University John Carroll224466881010
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 1335577991111
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 244668810101212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines881010113355
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats557799111122
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1991111224466
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2101011335577
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3111122446688
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes66881010121233
Saint Mary's CollegeSaint Mary's College Belles779911112244
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
John Carroll University John Carroll University Davis Crawford '22 [1-10] Mary Sessions '22 [1-4]
Mollie Tirpak '23 [5-8]
Miriam Mcnea '23 [9-10]
John Carroll Thomas Wirbel '23 [1-5, 9-10]
Mary Sessions '22 [6-8]		 Jane O'Connor '23 [1-2]
Bryce Zamecnik '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Adam Okuley '23 [5-6, 9-10]
Marquette University Marquette University Bobby Sessions '20 Etain Mckinney '22
Golden Eagles 1 Emma Turner '23 Makena Walsh '21
Marquette University Marquette University Solomon Dworsky '21 John Condit '22
Golden Eagles 2 Colin Higgins '21 [1-10] Cecilia Dietzler '21 [1-2]
Mia Peterson '22 [3-5]
Frannie Lambie '23 [6]
Evan Morast '20 [7-8]
Michaela Maclean '23 [9-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Thomas Quinn '22 [1-10] Austin Porras '23 [1-8]
Rachel Shapiro '22 [9-10]
Wildcats Marina Hutzler '23 [1-2, 5-10]
Matthew Beretta '23 [3-4]		 Rachel Shapiro '22 [1-4]
Matthew Beretta '23 [5-10]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Garrett Hall '22 [1-10] Drew Ayers '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Vannatta '22 [3-4, 7-10]
Buckeyes Lindsey Heben '23 [1-2, 5-6, 8-10]
Hannah Santantonio '21 [3-4, 7]		 Catherine Mcclure '23 [1-4, 7, 9-10]
Hannah Santantonio '21 [5-6, 8]
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Grace Hillman '20 Mary Moir '20
Belles Grace Marcheselli '23 [1-10] Emma Scheibert '23 [1-2, 6, 9-10]
Grace Graziano '22 [3-5, 7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Sherman Thompson '22 [1-10] Kira Biener '23 [1-6]
Nikita Shvaibovich '23 [7-10]
Wolverines Sarah Youtt '21 Cameron Burdgick '23
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Kevin Gallagher '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Christian Cyrul '20 [5-8]		 Chloe Frentzel '21 [1-4, 9-10]
Kata Lamb '20 [5-8]
Fighting Irish 1 Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-4, 9-10]
Nicholas Peluchiwski '22 [5-8]		 Leah Peluchiwski '20 [1-4, 9-10]
Kelsey Kennedy '22 [5-8]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame James Kennedy '20 Naya Tadavarthy '22
Fighting Irish 2 Daniel Timofeev '22 Christopher Metzger '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Collin Kemper '22 [1-4]
Peter Pillari '21 [5-10]		 Chloe Crusan '21 [1-4]
Fighting Irish 3 Megan O'Gorman '22 Nicholas Marshall '22
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Reed Weston '23 Elisabeth Johanson '22
Badgers Michael Lively '22 Benjamin Weinstein '23

Conditions — 10/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.7 kn
avg  ·  max 14.8 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From E (88°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.58 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 13 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Notre Dame: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.37 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Notre Dame by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Notre Dame, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →