University of Michigan '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.91 (fleet 1.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 2–12 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 2–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 2–12 against 2.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | crew | 2.87 | 2.18 | 2–12 | 2.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corkran King Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.0 | 1.11 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | 0.55 |
| Shamrock Scramble | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 1.73 |
| Cary-Price Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 1.30 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Qualifiers Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 0.69 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 12.4 | — |
| Phebe Corkran King Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 0.39 |
| NWU Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.6 | 1.77 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.1 | 0.88 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.9 | 1.25 |
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 3.63 |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 1.23 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 16.0 | 0.28 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.0 | 2.33 |
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 1.65 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Emma Biagioni 2017 | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 0.06 |
| Cary-Price Memorial | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | -0.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
