Mendelblatt Team Race

HostSouth Florida
Date02/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	19–1
2	University of South Florida	Bulls	15–4
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	14–5
4	Boston College	Eagles	8–11
5	Jacksonville University	Fins	8–11
6	Yale University	Bulldogs	8–11
7	Eckerd College	Tritons	3–16
8	University of Michigan	Wolverines	3–16
9	University of Miami	Hurricanes	2–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,338 team race matches sailed before 2018-02-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 68 of 84 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.414 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.22 ± 0.21: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 22% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.43 school +0.46	Will La Dow / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.90 Romain Screve / Madeline Bubb 15–1 Jack Parkin / Elena Vandenberg 12–0 Jack Parkin / Kathryn Booker 7–1 Romain Screve / Kathryn Booker 4–0	84%	19–1 (95%)	+2.2
2	University of South Florida Bulls	5	9.85 home +0.40	Sean Cornell / Rachel Daye 3.51 13–4 Brendan Feeney / Mandi Dickie 2.78 13–4 Andrew Baird / Darby Capellin 3.29 8–4 Michael Sanandajian / Rachel Yannelli 7–0 Marina Barzaghi / Kathryn Bornarth 4–0	60%	15–4 (79%)	+3.5
3	College of Charleston Cougars	4	10.37 school +0.44	Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.30 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.62 Dirk Johnson / Grace Mccarthy 2.89	65%	14–5 (74%)	+1.7
4	Boston College Eagles	2	11.01 school +0.24	Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 3.32 Sophia Reineke / Lily Mcgrath Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.79	76%	8–9 (47%)	−4.8
5	Jacksonville University Fins	7	8.00 school −0.11	Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Ana Carrasco 2.95 Andre Guaragna / Mia Porter Telmo Basterra / Kelsy Waack 5–7 Telmo Basterra / Gigi Arias 3–4	34%	8–11 (42%)	+1.5
6	Yale University Bulldogs	3	9.85 school +0.27	Casey Klingler / Claudia Loiacono 3.33 Christine Klingler / Catherine Mollerus 2.86 Louisa Nordstrom / Nicholas Marwell 3.41 6–8 Nicholas Marwell / Louisa Nordstrom 2.33 4–1	70%	10–9 (53%)	−3.4
7	Eckerd College Tritons	6	7.36 school +0.18	Connor Ratcliff / Caroline Puckette Ian Willoughby / Carla Szeplaki Daniel Vail / Camryn Kennedy	39%	5–12 (29%)	−1.6
8	University of Michigan Wolverines	8	5.83	Will Neubauer / Sarah Silvestri 3–14 Connor Goulet / Claire Foley 3–12 August Sturm / Sarah Youtt 2.87 2–12 Austin Haag / Sofia Gambini 1.92 1–10	16%	3–16 (16%)	+0.0
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	9	4.96 school −0.12	Kyle Magno / Olivia Gassner 2.36 Remi Hutchins / Alex Sidi 0.97 Andrew Scotti / Geoffrey Calderone 1.65	7%	2–17 (11%)	+0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.43	12.85	19–1	16.8	+1.42	1.9	12%
2	University of South Florida	9.85	11.12	15–4	11.5	+1.27	3.1	4%
5	Jacksonville University	8.00	8.70	8–11	6.4	+0.70	0.8	22%
9	University of Miami	4.96	5.61	2–17	1.2	+0.64	0.4	36%
3	College of Charleston	10.37	11.00	14–5	12.3	+0.63	0.8	23%
8	University of Michigan	5.83	5.86	3–16	3.0	+0.03	0.0	66%
7	Eckerd College	7.36	6.13	5–12	6.6	−1.24	1.5	97%
6	Yale University	9.85	8.43	10–9	13.4	−1.42	3.4	99%
4	Boston College	11.01	9.03	8–9	12.8	−1.98	6.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.51	4.77	13–4	9.6	+1.25	3.0	4%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.78	3.67	13–4	10.9	+0.89	1.3	15%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	3.29	4.09	8–4	6.5	+0.80	0.9	22%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	2.95	3.65	8–11	6.4	+0.70	0.8	22%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.13	2.83	8–11	6.4	+0.70	0.8	22%
Andrew Scotti	University of Miami	1.65	2.30	2–17	1.2	+0.64	0.4	36%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.62	4.25	14–5	12.3	+0.63	0.8	23%
Austin Haag	University of Michigan	1.92	2.52	1–10	0.6	+0.59	0.2	47%
Will Neubauer	University of Michigan	0.95	1.00	3–14	2.9	+0.05	0.0	65%
August Sturm	University of Michigan	2.87	2.18	2–12	2.7	−0.68	0.3	89%
Connor Ratcliff	Eckerd College	1.83	0.59	5–12	6.6	−1.24	1.5	97%
Ian Willoughby	Eckerd College	2.23	0.99	5–12	6.6	−1.24	1.5	97%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	3.32	1.34	8–9	12.8	−1.98	6.8	>99%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.79	1.80	8–9	12.8	−1.98	6.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Eckerd College	99%
1	2	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	93%
1	3	University of South Florida	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	4	Boston College	University of Michigan	100%
1	5	Eckerd College	Yale University	5%	upset
1	6	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	97%
1	7	University of South Florida	University of Miami	99%
1	8	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	99%
1	9	Yale University	Boston College	27%	upset
1	10	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	65%
1	11	Stanford University	University of South Florida	77%
1	12	University of Michigan	University of Miami	67%
1	13	Boston College	College of Charleston	66%
1	14	Yale University	Jacksonville University	75%
1	15	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	95%
1	16	Stanford University	University of Michigan	99%
1	17	Boston College	University of Miami	100%
1	18	College of Charleston	Yale University	57%
1	19	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	82%
1	20	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	92%
1	21	Stanford University	Boston College	59%
1	22	College of Charleston	University of Miami	100%
1	23	University of South Florida	Yale University	35%	upset
1	24	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	84%
1	26	Stanford University	College of Charleston	73%
1	27	Yale University	University of Miami	98%
1	28	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	94%
1	29	Boston College	Jacksonville University	96%
1	30	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	96%
1	31	Stanford University	University of Miami	100%
1	32	Yale University	University of Michigan	98%
1	33	University of South Florida	Boston College	29%	upset
1	34	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	92%
1	35	Eckerd College	University of Miami	92%
1	36	Stanford University	Yale University	78%
2	37	Stanford University	Eckerd College	98%
2	38	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	96%
2	39	University of South Florida	College of Charleston	46%	upset
2	40	Boston College	University of Michigan	100%
2	41	Yale University	Eckerd College	94%
2	42	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	97%
2	43	University of South Florida	University of Miami	99%
2	44	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	98%
2	45	Boston College	Yale University	70%
2	46	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	66%
2	47	Stanford University	University of South Florida	78%
2	48	University of Miami	University of Michigan	26%	upset
2	49	College of Charleston	Boston College	35%	upset
2	50	Jacksonville University	Yale University	29%	upset
2	51	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	94%
2	52	Stanford University	University of Michigan	99%
2	53	Boston College	University of Miami	100%
2	54	College of Charleston	Yale University	55%
2	55	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	80%
2	56	University of Michigan	Eckerd College	9%	upset
2	57	Stanford University	Boston College	61%
2	58	College of Charleston	University of Miami	100%
2	59	University of South Florida	Yale University	36%	upset
2	60	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	86%
2	62	Stanford University	College of Charleston	75%
2	63	Yale University	University of Miami	98%
2	64	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	94%
2	65	Jacksonville University	Boston College	5%	upset
2	66	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	95%
2	67	Stanford University	University of Miami	100%
2	68	Yale University	University of Michigan	98%
2	69	University of South Florida	Boston College	29%	upset
2	70	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	90%
2	71	Eckerd College	University of Miami	93%
2	72	Stanford University	Yale University	78%
4	81	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	91%
4	82	Yale University	University of Miami	98%
4	83	University of Miami	Eckerd College	7%	upset
4	84	Yale University	University of Michigan	98%
4	85	University of Michigan	University of Miami	77%
4	86	Yale University	Eckerd College	93%
5	73	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	54%
5	74	Stanford University	Boston College	62%
5	75	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	80%
5	76	College of Charleston	Stanford University	25%	upset
5	77	Boston College	Jacksonville University	94%
5	78	Stanford University	University of South Florida	78%
5	79	College of Charleston	Boston College	35%	upset
5	80	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	96%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulls	Cougars	Eagles	Fins	Bulldogs	Tritons	Wolverines	Hurricanes
Stanford University Cardinal	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulls	Cougars	Eagles	Fins	Bulldogs	Tritons	Wolverines	Hurricanes
Stanford University Cardinal	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Tritons	Wolverines	Hurricanes
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–2	L	✕	W	L
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulls	Cougars	Eagles	Fins
Stanford University Cardinal	3–1	✕	W	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–2	L	✕	L	–	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–0	W	W	✕	W	–
Boston College Eagles	1–2	L	–	L	✕	W
Jacksonville University Fins	0–3	L	L	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
2	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
3	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
4	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
5	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
6	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
7	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
8	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
9	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
10	Fins	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
11	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
12	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
13	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
14	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
15	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
17	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
18	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
19	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
20	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
23	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
24	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
27	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
28	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
29	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Fins	2-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
33	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
34	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
35	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
38	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
39	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
42	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
43	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
46	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
48	Hurricanes	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
49	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
50	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
51	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
53	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
54	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
55	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
56	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
57	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
58	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
59	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
60	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
61	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
62	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
64	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
65	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
66	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
68	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
69	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
70	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
71	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
81	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
82	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
83	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
84	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
85	Wolverines	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
86	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
73	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
75	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
76	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
77	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
78	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
79	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
80	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Romain Screve '21 Will La Dow '18	Elena Vandenberg '18 Kathryn Booker '19 Madeline Bubb '20 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Marina Barzaghi '21 Michael Sanandajian '18 Sean Cornell '18	Darby Capellin '19 Mandi Dickie '18 Kathryn Bornarth '21 Rachel Yannelli '19 Rachel Daye '18
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Dirk Johnson '18	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
Boston College	Eagles	Isabella Loosbrock '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Wade Waddell '19	Emma Perry '19 Lily Mcgrath '18 Katharine Bowman '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Telmo Basterra '21	Ana Carrasco '21 Mia Porter '22 Kelsy Waack '18 Gigi Arias '21
Yale University	Bulldogs	Casey Klingler '18 Christine Klingler '20 Louisa Nordstrom '20 Nicholas Marwell '21	Claudia Loiacono '21 Catherine Mollerus '21 Nicholas Marwell '21 Louisa Nordstrom '20
Eckerd College	Tritons	Connor Ratcliff '21 Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21	Caroline Puckette '20 Camryn Kennedy '21 Carla Szeplaki '20
University of Michigan	Wolverines	August Sturm '20 Austin Haag '20 Connor Goulet '21 Will Neubauer '20	Sarah Youtt '21 Sofia Gambini '19 Claire Foley '20 Sarah Silvestri '19
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Andrew Scotti '20 Kyle Magno '18 Remi Hutchins '20	Geoffrey Calderone '18 Olivia Gassner '18 Alex Sidi '21

Conditions — 02/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 22.2 kn

From SE (128°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1022.3 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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