Yale University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.79 (fleet 3.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 76–42 (64%) as crew 12–11 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 27–11 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 10–8 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 31–21 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 4–1 | 9–8 |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 4–1 | 3–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (141 matches) the record is 88–53 against 90.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 20 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.29 | 3.68 | 7–7 | 6.0 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2020-02-22 | Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 3.50 | 20–4 | 19.6 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.13 | 6–2 | 6.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 3.17 | 2.48 | 4–6 | 5.4 | −0.69 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.84 | 4.16 | 8–3 | 5.2 | +1.32 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.78 | 3.54 | 4–3 | 3.0 | +0.76 | 0.6 | 31% |
| 2019-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 1.25 | 6–2 | 7.3 | −1.48 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 0.82 | 2–12 | 4.4 | −1.90 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.50 | 3.70 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.20 | 1.3 | 21% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | crew | 3.19 | 6.20 | 3–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.41 | 2.62 | 4–1 | 4.4 | −0.79 | 0.2 | 91% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | crew | 3.41 | 1.74 | 6–8 | 8.9 | −1.67 | 3.4 | >99% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 3.45 | 1.39 | 3–3 | 5.3 | −2.07 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.85 | 3.29 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.44 | 1.2 | 22% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 83% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.9 | 5.34 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.1 | 3.52 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 3.68 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.9 | 4.38 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 4 | 2.5 | 5.54 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.8 | 3.16 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 2.60 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.6 | 2.81 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.4 | 2.50 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.2 | 3.27 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 4.05 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.73 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.4 | 3.37 |
| 76th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 14 | 2.4 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 2.25 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 2.94 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 42% | — |
| Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.9 | 4.12 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 3.55 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 2.62 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.3 | 2.54 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.4 | 2.29 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 2.29 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.1 | 1.24 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nicholas Marwell |  Branson School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
