| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,028 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.457 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.39: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 8.53 | 9.80 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.27 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 3 | Boston University | 7.89 | 8.75 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +0.86 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 1 | Boston College | 9.88 | 10.19 | 9–1 | 8.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 5 | Tufts University | 7.24 | 6.85 | 2–8 | 2.6 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 4 | Yale University | 8.36 | 7.67 | 4–6 | 5.4 | −0.69 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 6 | Brown University | 7.47 | 5.93 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond Groble Iv | Boston University | 2.35 | 3.21 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +0.86 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Ryutaro Sochi | Tufts University | 2.53 | 2.15 | 2–8 | 2.6 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Sam Tobin | Yale University | 2.54 | 1.85 | 4–6 | 5.4 | −0.69 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Jed Bell | Brown University | 2.65 | 1.10 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
| William George | Brown University | 1.96 | 0.42 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Engineers | Terriers | Bulldogs | Jumbos | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Brown University Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Engineers | Terriers | Bulldogs | Jumbos | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Brown University Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Colin Brego '20 Robert Hunter '22 Thomas Walden '20 |
Isabella Eckler '23 Elizabeth Russell '21 Nicole Moeder '22 |
|
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | Crew Fritsch '23 John Ped '21 Stephen Duncan '20 |
Fiona Mckellar '20 Lynn Liu '20 Maaya Prasad '22 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Casey Cabot '21 Raymond Groble Iv '21 Tyler Mowry '23 |
Catherine Shakin '23 Liam Dwyer '21 Olivia Cronin-Golomb '20 |
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Megan Grimes '24 Nicholas Marwell '21 Sam Tobin '23 |
Helena Ware '23 Benjamin Markert '23 Mina Cezairli '21 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Connor Sheridan '22 Ryutaro Sochi '22 Wells Drayton '21 |
Jacob Whitney '21 Mallory Hood '22 Devin Hart '23 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Hunter Zonnenberg '23 Jed Bell '23 William George '23 |
Jack Papetti '21 Justin Chiang '21 Aidan Biondi '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
