Tufts University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.09 (fleet 2.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–14 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 5–13 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 8–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 13–14 against 12.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 2.40 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.53 | 2.15 | 2–8 | 2.6 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2019-03-30 | Harpswell Sound team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 3.79 | 8–1 | 6.4 | +1.64 | 1.7 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 3.12 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.5 | 2.66 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.1 | 2.73 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.16 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | A | 20 | 5.5 | 1.83 |
| PRIDDY - Freshman Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 2.79 |
| Harpswell Sound team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.3 | 0.61 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.0 | 3.56 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 2.44 |
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 3.26 |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.3 | 3.06 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 2.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
