Mt. Hope Invite

HostRoger Williams
Date09/07/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	25	40	65
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	36	39	75
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	43	38	81
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 2	47	34	81
5	University of Vermont	Catamounts	37	47	84
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	51	35	86
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 1	59	27	86
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	33	67	100
9	University of Rhode Island	Rams 3	83	37	120
10	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	69	56	125
11	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	60	68	128
12	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	65	80	145
13	Middlebury College	Panthers	73	99	172
14	McGill University	Redbirds	81	94	175
15	Fairfield University	Stags	97	105	202
16	Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	100	105	205
17	Wesleyan University	Cardinals	112	100	212

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	6	6	2	4	1	5	1	25	Parker Colantuono '22 Sophie Jackson '20
Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	1	1	3	13	4	8	3	33	Chase Reynolds '23 Annika Irene '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	2	11	4	2	3	4	10	36	John Walton '22 Ariana Smaldone '20
University of Vermont	Catamounts	10	2	5	11	5	2	2	37	Joshua Stone '20 Kiley Roach '21
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	4	9	1	9	6	9	5	43	Ryutaro Sochi '22 Mallory Hood '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 2	12	3	6	1	7	7	11	47	Emma Snead '23 Charles Mason '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	3	7	8	8	9	3	13	51	Kyle Nannig '21 Wyle Goddard '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 1	9	16	9	7	10	1	7	59	Matthew Kickhafer '23 Casey Gale '22
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	7	4	12	16	11	6	4	60	Anthony Root '22 [1-7] Alex Bowdler '22 [1-2] Hadley O'Sullivan '23 [3-7]
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	15	8	11	6	2	14	9	65	Grace Cannon '23 [1-7] Charles Nystrom '23 [1-2] Madysen Delosh '22 [3-7]
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	8	5	7	10	15	12	12	69	Matthew Galbraith '21 Caroline Kelly '23
Middlebury College	Panthers	5	15	16	12	8	11	6	73	Ben Arquit '20 Grace Hering '22
McGill University	Redbirds	14	12	15	5	14	13	8	81	Trevor Donovan '23 Mitzi Ellemers '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams 3	11	13	14	3	13	15	14	83	Meghan Haviland '22 Nicholas Chaloux '20
Fairfield University	Stags	13	14	13	15	17	10	15	97	Giles Ruck '21 Matthew Little '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	16	10	10	14	16	17	17	100	John Holt '22 [1-4] Jack Eddy '21 [5-7] Victoria Kyle '20 [1-4] Ryan Cloherty '22 [5-7]
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	17	17	17	17	12	16	16	112	Owen Moore '21 Nalu Tripician '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 1	3	3	3	3	6	4	5	27	Nathan Olmsted '23 Jack Farrell '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears 2	8	5	6	5	2	1	7	34	Michael Pinto '23 Gabrielle Doucot '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	2	6	8	2	9	6	2	35	Ben Rosenberg '23 Ryan Smart '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams 3	5	4	2	9	4	10	3	37	Megan Gimple '22 [1-7] Aaron Wood '21 [1-2] Emilia Marino '22 [3-7]
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	4	1	7	6	5	3	12	38	Wells Drayton '21 Marisa Permatteo '19
Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	11	7	4	8	1	2	6	39	Madeline Pope '21 Kristi Dolan '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	1	2	5	11	3	9	9	40	Aidan Naughton '22 Alyssa Hall '20
University of Vermont	Catamounts	15	9	1	1	7	13	1	47	Ryan Hamilton '23 Lilia Hutchins '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	6	10	10	13	8	5	4	56	Charlotte Lenz '20 Marley Hillman '21
Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	12	8	9	10	12	8	8	67	Grace Woodcock '23 Molly Matthews '23
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	7	11	11	7	10	7	15	68	Caroline King '21 [1-4] Alex Bowdler '22 [5-7] Mary Persico '21 [1-4] Caroline King '21 [5-7]
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	13	16	13	4	11	12	11	80	Lauren Miller '22 Katelyn Howe '22
McGill University	Redbirds	16	17	12	14	14	11	10	94	Matthew Behr '22 Sam Lowery '23
Middlebury College	Panthers	9	15	15	15	15	14	16	99	Nicholas Leshaw '22 Ding Pang '22
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	10	12	16	16	17	15	14	100	Camille Britton '20 Carolines Salim '21
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	14	14	14	17	13	16	17	105	Kathryn Dechambeau '22 [1-2] Nick Ferrara '22 [3-7] Nick Ferrara '22 [1-2] Victoria Kyle '20 [3-7]
Fairfield University	Stags	17	13	17	12	16	17	13	105	Jillian Casey '22 [1-2] Lauren Gasek '22 [3-7] John Mccarthy '22 [1-2] Serena Eldredge '22 [3-7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	9	9	11	11	14	14	16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	10	10	13	13	15	15	17
Fairfield University Stags	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
McGill University Redbirds	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Middlebury College Panthers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	11	11	14	14	16	16	18
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
University of Rhode Island Rams 3	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Salve Regina University Seahawks	6	6	8	8	10	10	13
Tufts University Jumbos 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	14
Tufts University Jumbos 2	8	8	10	10	13	13	15
University of Vermont Catamounts	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Wesleyan University Cardinals	18	18	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	10	10	13	13	15	15	17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	11	11	14	14	16	16	18
Fairfield University Stags	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
McGill University Redbirds	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Middlebury College Panthers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
University of Rhode Island Rams 3	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	6	6	8	8	10	10	13
Salve Regina University Seahawks	7	7	9	9	11	11	14
Tufts University Jumbos 1	8	8	10	10	13	13	15
Tufts University Jumbos 2	9	9	11	11	14	14	16
University of Vermont Catamounts	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Wesleyan University Cardinals	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Fairfield University	Giles Ruck '21	Matthew Little '22
Stags	Jillian Casey '22 [1-2] Lauren Gasek '22 [3-7]	John Mccarthy '22 [1-2] Serena Eldredge '22 [3-7]
McGill University	Trevor Donovan '23	Mitzi Ellemers '22
Redbirds	Matthew Behr '22	Sam Lowery '23
Middlebury College	Ben Arquit '20	Grace Hering '22
Panthers	Nicholas Leshaw '22	Ding Pang '22
Roger Williams University	John Walton '22	Ariana Smaldone '20
Hawks 1	Madeline Pope '21	Kristi Dolan '20
Roger Williams University	Chase Reynolds '23	Annika Irene '23
Hawks 2	Grace Woodcock '23	Molly Matthews '23
Salve Regina University	Anthony Root '22 [1-7]	Alex Bowdler '22 [1-2] Hadley O'Sullivan '23 [3-7]
Seahawks	Caroline King '21 [1-4] Alex Bowdler '22 [5-7]	Mary Persico '21 [1-4] Caroline King '21 [5-7]
Tufts University	Ryutaro Sochi '22	Mallory Hood '22
Jumbos 1	Wells Drayton '21	Marisa Permatteo '19
Tufts University	Matthew Galbraith '21	Caroline Kelly '23
Jumbos 2	Charlotte Lenz '20	Marley Hillman '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23	Casey Gale '22
Bears 1	Nathan Olmsted '23	Jack Farrell '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Emma Snead '23	Charles Mason '23
Bears 2	Michael Pinto '23	Gabrielle Doucot '23
University of New Hampshire	Grace Cannon '23 [1-7]	Charles Nystrom '23 [1-2] Madysen Delosh '22 [3-7]
Wildcats	Lauren Miller '22	Katelyn Howe '22
University of Rhode Island	Parker Colantuono '22	Sophie Jackson '20
Rams 1	Aidan Naughton '22	Alyssa Hall '20
University of Rhode Island	Kyle Nannig '21	Wyle Goddard '21
Rams 2	Ben Rosenberg '23	Ryan Smart '22
University of Rhode Island	Meghan Haviland '22	Nicholas Chaloux '20
Rams 3	Megan Gimple '22 [1-7]	Aaron Wood '21 [1-2] Emilia Marino '22 [3-7]
University of Vermont	Joshua Stone '20	Kiley Roach '21
Catamounts	Ryan Hamilton '23	Lilia Hutchins '23
Wentworth Institute of Technology	John Holt '22 [1-4] Jack Eddy '21 [5-7]	Victoria Kyle '20 [1-4] Ryan Cloherty '22 [5-7]
Leopards	Kathryn Dechambeau '22 [1-2] Nick Ferrara '22 [3-7]	Nick Ferrara '22 [1-2] Victoria Kyle '20 [3-7]
Wesleyan University	Owen Moore '21	Nalu Tripician '22
Cardinals	Camille Britton '20	Carolines Salim '21

Conditions — 09/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1006.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.9 kn

avg · max 17.9 kn

Gusts to 27.6 kn

From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1006.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn · W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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