Salve Regina University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81 (fleet 2.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–23 (0%) as crew 0–6 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 0–23 | 0–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 0–29 against 1.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 1.81 | -1.19 | 0–14 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 1.54 | -1.46 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | crew | 1.54 | -1.46 | 0–6 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.0 | 2.04 |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 1.50 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | -0.07 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 14.9 | 1.57 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 2.04 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 14.5 | 1.86 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 2.27 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 18.8 | 0.86 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.4 | 1.99 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.7 | 1.47 |
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.4 | 1.41 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 2.52 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.5 | 1.52 |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 1.73 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.1 | 2.17 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 2.77 |
| Fairifeld Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 0.93 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 15.0 | 2.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
