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The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 48 58 106
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 68 69 137
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 86 89 175
4 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 82 101 183
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 101 85 186
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 109 89 198
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 110 95 205
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 109 96 205
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 96 109 205
10 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 118 118 236
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 140 108 248
12 Boston College Boston College Eagles 118 134 252
13 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 135 145 280
14 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 147 143 290
15 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 165 170 335
16 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 174 202 376
17 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 201 180 381
18 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 211 232 443
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 1 7 7 5 4 1 5 1 5 1 2 5 48 Ragna Agerup '20 [1-13]
Julia Reynolds '22 [1-10]
Emma Montgomery '22 [11-13]
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 5 10 4 4 3 9 3 3 6 7 3 9 68 Shawn Harvey '22
Graceann Nicolosi '20
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9 15 14 3 1 1 4 1 4 15 3 11 1 82 Robert Bragg '23 [1-13]
Eloise Burn '21 [1-10]
Christopher Long '23 [11-13]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 9 2 11 10 6 12 4 13 1 5 1 6 86 Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 [1-5, 10-13]
Sam Morrell '21 [6-9]
Katherine Bertolini '21 [1-3, 6-10]
Catherine Shakin '23 [4-5, 11]
Trent Chismar '22 [12-13]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 12 7 3 12 6 2 5 8 8 8 13 10 2 96 Spencer Cartwright '22
Rachel Holick '22
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 10 2 1 9 12 5 7 6 11 10 9 15 4 101 Eli Burnes '22
Emily Wang '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 6 15 1 7 14 10 7 5 2 11 8 18 109 Emily Haig '21 [1-13]
Marcus Abate '20 [1-8, 10]
Jeremy Mcculloch '22 [9, 11-13]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 13 17 5 2 8 15 9 15 3 4 4 7 109 Mack Fox '20
Brian Nelson '21
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 4 6 15 14 7 13 14 2 12 12 5 3 110 Christian Filter '20 [1-13]
Julia Adams '21 [1-7]
Emily Gonzalez '20 [8-13]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 17 11 2 17 9 2 10 6 4 14 14 11 118 Thomas Whittemore '23 [1-13]
Paige Dunlevy '20 [1-10]
Cecilia Moreira '20 [11]
Walter Henry '23 [12-13]
Boston College Boston College Eagles 16 16 8 13 3 13 3 2 18 7 2 9 8 118 Sophia Reineke '21
Declan Mcgranahan '22
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 15 12 4 6 16 11 11 12 7 9 6 12 14 135 Thomas Harden '20 [1-13]
Isabella Arnaboldi '21 [1-10, 13]
Peter Schneider '20 [11-12]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 3 9 14 11 17 8 15 10 17 10 6 12 140 Ansgar Jordan '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Charlie Hibben '22 [4, 7-13]
Maria Brush '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Harper Mckerrow '23 [4, 7-13]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 13 11 13 17 9 10 6 13 16 14 8 7 10 147 Michael O'Flaherty '21 [1-4]
Luke Ingalls '21 [5-13]
Kevin Stamp '22 [1-9]
Edward Gary '22 [10-13]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 11 8 18 8 8 15 16 11 12 11 17 13 17 165 Kyle Riggs '21 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12]
Adrian Van Der Wal '22 [4-6, 9-10, 13]
Jon Ewing '21 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12]
Wyatt Fogg '23 [4-6, 9-10, 13]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 14 10 5 10 15 12 17 16 14 BKD 15 18 15 174 Alexander Bowen '20 [1-13]
Sydney Clays '21 [1-10]
Thomas Dunn '21 [11-13]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 17 14 16 18 13 16 18 17 9 16 18 16 13 201 Joey Lark '21 [1-2, 4-6]
Anthony Root '22 [3, 7-13]
Hadley O'Sullivan '23 [1-8]
Charlotte Martinez '23 [9-10]
Joey Lark '21 [11-13]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 18 18 12 16 18 18 14 18 17 13 16 17 16 211 Ben Arquit '20 [1-13]
Julia Fairbank '23 [1-6]
Kaja Aagaard '22 [7-8]
Maya Saterson '22 [9-12]
Patrick Stevenson '23 [13]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 8 7 2 5 7 10 6 3 5 1 1 1 58 Connor Nelson '24
Madeleine Mcgrath '22
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 7 3 1 8 3 8 4 2 12 2 14 4 69 Teddy Nicolosi '24 [1-13]
Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 [1-12]
Helena Ware '23 [13]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 11 5 1 9 3 5 7 3 7 7 17 3 7 85 Henry Burnes '22
Iulianna Taritsa '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 4 9 8 14 4 5 12 12 3 5 4 5 89 Maia Agerup '20 [1-13]
Grace Mooradian '21 [1-8]
Trent Chismar '22 [9-10]
Charles Honke '20 [11-13]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 17 2 4 4 12 12 3 13 6 4 3 7 2 89 Gage Schoenherr '21
Christina Nothacker '21
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 16 10 2 5 7 8 4 1 9 2 11 8 12 95 Matt Safford '20 [1-13]
Marie Bergsund '20 [1-11]
John Seider '22 [12-13]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 9 15 6 12 6 9 1 11 8 1 9 6 3 96 Ivan Shestopalov '21 [1-9]
Stephen Duncan '20 [10-13]
Julia Cho '20 [1-11]
Marcus Abate '20 [12-13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 15 1 14 6 1 2 11 5 11 6 14 5 10 101 Audrey Giblin '20 [1-13]
Paige Clarke '20 [1-10]
Ryan Goldstein '22 [11-13]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 3 8 7 15 1 6 8 4 10 10 9 14 108 Samuel Merson '22 [1-4]
Alex Fasolo '22 [5-13]
Emily Calandrella '20 [1-10]
Duke Saunders '20 [11-13]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 14 10 10 11 6 2 7 10 8 7 12 9 109 Grant Gridley '22 [1-8]
Riley Read '22 [9-13]
Emily Gildea '21 [1-8]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 13 5 3 4 11 13 14 1 11 12 13 13 118 Cj Mckenna '23 [1-13]
Cecilia Moreira '20 [1-10]
Simon Moreira '22 [11-12]
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 [13]
Boston College Boston College Eagles 14 9 17 14 2 10 9 2 5 14 13 10 15 134 Jack Denatale '22 [1-11]
Thomas Walden '20 [12-13]
Eliza Wright '20 [1-11]
Katharine Bowman '20 [12-13]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 12 12 11 16 14 14 15 16 9 8 2 8 143 Parker Colantuono '22 [1-13]
Maguire Bennett '21 [1-9]
Kevin Stamp '22 [10-13]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 8 6 13 13 10 13 15 10 15 16 4 16 6 145 Connell Phillipps '23 [1-7, 11-13]
Cameron Nash '21 [8-10]
Lucy Mulvihill '22 [1-10, 13]
Jack Wallace '23 [11-12]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 16 11 16 13 16 16 9 14 18 6 11 17 170 Ted Bjerregaard '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11-13]
Matt Hersey '22 [5-6, 9-10]
Isabelle Dodd '23 [1-3, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexandra Nygren '20 [4, 7-8, 11-13]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 12 11 15 15 9 17 12 17 13 15 16 17 11 180 Alex Bowdler '22 [1-13]
Mary Persico '21 [1-8]
Gregory Dillon '23 [9-13]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 17 16 17 17 15 17 16 18 13 15 15 16 202 Christos Karplus '21 [1-4, 9-13]
Stephen Poirier '22 [5-8]
Megan Laurie '20 [1-4]
Teagan Duffy '22 [5, 12-13]
Sydney Kiedeisch '22 [6-11]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 18 232 Lucie Rochat '22 [1-8]
Nicholas Leshaw '22 [9-13]
Nicholas Leshaw '22 [1-3]
Patrick Stevenson '23 [4-8]
Ding Pang '22 [9-13]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1122334455667
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2211181817171616151514
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677889
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears443322111818171716
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears151516161717181811223
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels5566778899101011
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green66554433221118
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson77889910101111121213
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers991010111112121313141415
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers101099887766554
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers8877665544332
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111212131314141515161617
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161515141413131212111110
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1212111110109988776
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1313141415151616171718181
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos14141313121211111010998
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts17171818112233445
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs18181717161615151414131312

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1122334455667
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2211181817171616151514
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677889
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears443322111818171716
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears151516161717181811223
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels5566778899101011
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green66554433221118
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson77889910101111121213
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers991010111112121313141415
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers101099887766554
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers8877665544332
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111212131314141515161617
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161515141413131212111110
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1212111110109988776
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1313141415151616171718181
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos14141313121211111010998
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts17171818112233445
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs18181717161615151414131312
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Sophia Reineke '21 Declan Mcgranahan '22
Eagles Jack Denatale '22 [1-11]
Thomas Walden '20 [12-13]		 Eliza Wright '20 [1-11]
Katharine Bowman '20 [12-13]
Boston University Boston University Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 [1-5, 10-13]
Sam Morrell '21 [6-9]		 Katherine Bertolini '21 [1-3, 6-10]
Catherine Shakin '23 [4-5, 11]
Trent Chismar '22 [12-13]
Terriers Maia Agerup '20 [1-13] Grace Mooradian '21 [1-8]
Trent Chismar '22 [9-10]
Charles Honke '20 [11-13]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Christian Filter '20 [1-13] Julia Adams '21 [1-7]
Emily Gonzalez '20 [8-13]
Polar Bears Matt Safford '20 [1-13] Marie Bergsund '20 [1-11]
John Seider '22 [12-13]
Brown University Brown University Ragna Agerup '20 [1-13] Julia Reynolds '22 [1-10]
Emma Montgomery '22 [11-13]
Bears Connor Nelson '24 Madeleine Mcgrath '22
Connecticut College Connecticut College Thomas Whittemore '23 [1-13] Paige Dunlevy '20 [1-10]
Cecilia Moreira '20 [11]
Walter Henry '23 [12-13]
Camels Cj Mckenna '23 [1-13] Cecilia Moreira '20 [1-10]
Simon Moreira '22 [11-12]
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 [13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Robert Bragg '23 [1-13] Eloise Burn '21 [1-10]
Christopher Long '23 [11-13]
Big Green Audrey Giblin '20 [1-13] Paige Clarke '20 [1-10]
Ryan Goldstein '22 [11-13]
Harvard University Harvard University Eli Burnes '22 Emily Wang '21
Crimson Henry Burnes '22 Iulianna Taritsa '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emily Haig '21 [1-13] Marcus Abate '20 [1-8, 10]
Jeremy Mcculloch '22 [9, 11-13]
Engineers Ivan Shestopalov '21 [1-9]
Stephen Duncan '20 [10-13]		 Julia Cho '20 [1-11]
Marcus Abate '20 [12-13]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Alexander Bowen '20 [1-13] Sydney Clays '21 [1-10]
Thomas Dunn '21 [11-13]
Buccaneers Christos Karplus '21 [1-4, 9-13]
Stephen Poirier '22 [5-8]		 Megan Laurie '20 [1-4]
Teagan Duffy '22 [5, 12-13]
Sydney Kiedeisch '22 [6-11]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Ben Arquit '20 [1-13] Julia Fairbank '23 [1-6]
Kaja Aagaard '22 [7-8]
Maya Saterson '22 [9-12]
Patrick Stevenson '23 [13]
Panthers Lucie Rochat '22 [1-8]
Nicholas Leshaw '22 [9-13]		 Nicholas Leshaw '22 [1-3]
Patrick Stevenson '23 [4-8]
Ding Pang '22 [9-13]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Kyle Riggs '21 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12]
Adrian Van Der Wal '22 [4-6, 9-10, 13]		 Jon Ewing '21 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12]
Wyatt Fogg '23 [4-6, 9-10, 13]
Huskies Ted Bjerregaard '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11-13]
Matt Hersey '22 [5-6, 9-10]		 Isabelle Dodd '23 [1-3, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexandra Nygren '20 [4, 7-8, 11-13]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Spencer Cartwright '22 Rachel Holick '22
Hawks Grant Gridley '22 [1-8]
Riley Read '22 [9-13]		 Emily Gildea '21 [1-8]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Joey Lark '21 [1-2, 4-6]
Anthony Root '22 [3, 7-13]		 Hadley O'Sullivan '23 [1-8]
Charlotte Martinez '23 [9-10]
Joey Lark '21 [11-13]
Seahawks Alex Bowdler '22 [1-13] Mary Persico '21 [1-8]
Gregory Dillon '23 [9-13]
Tufts University Tufts University Ansgar Jordan '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Charlie Hibben '22 [4, 7-13]		 Maria Brush '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Harper Mckerrow '23 [4, 7-13]
Jumbos Samuel Merson '22 [1-4]
Alex Fasolo '22 [5-13]		 Emily Calandrella '20 [1-10]
Duke Saunders '20 [11-13]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Mack Fox '20 Brian Nelson '21
Bears Gage Schoenherr '21 Christina Nothacker '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Michael O'Flaherty '21 [1-4]
Luke Ingalls '21 [5-13]		 Kevin Stamp '22 [1-9]
Edward Gary '22 [10-13]
Rams Parker Colantuono '22 [1-13] Maguire Bennett '21 [1-9]
Kevin Stamp '22 [10-13]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Thomas Harden '20 [1-13] Isabella Arnaboldi '21 [1-10, 13]
Peter Schneider '20 [11-12]
Catamounts Connell Phillipps '23 [1-7, 11-13]
Cameron Nash '21 [8-10]		 Lucy Mulvihill '22 [1-10, 13]
Jack Wallace '23 [11-12]
Yale University Yale University Shawn Harvey '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20
Bulldogs Teddy Nicolosi '24 [1-13] Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 [1-12]
Helena Ware '23 [13]

Conditions — 10/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From NNE (16°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · SE 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.18 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →