Salve Regina University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 82.39 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.110 rating points from 43 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 3.12) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–50 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 11–22 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 6–14 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 17–50 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.37 | 3.50 | 5–7 | 2.8 | +1.13 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 0.74 | 6–15 | 12.1 | −1.69 | 7.6 | >99% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.89 | 3.18 | 6–14 | 3.2 | +1.29 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–14 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Dinghy Champs for the CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.0 | 3.41 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 3.12 |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 3.10 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 3.63 |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 3.08 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.0 | 2.45 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.95 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.0 | 2.89 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 3.20 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 2.29 |
| The 80th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.7 | 2.83 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.4 | 2.69 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 3.11 |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.8 | 0.67 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | 1.34 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 36% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Crew | B | 10 | 7.4 | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.2 | 1.18 |
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 3.10 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Crew | A, B | 5 | 8.6 | — |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 1.96 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.0 | 1.55 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 13.8 | 2.16 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.5 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 1.25 |
| Salve Sunday 2 | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.4 | -1.77 |
| Salve Saturday Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | -0.68 |
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | B | 20 | 7.5 | -0.11 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 1.96 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Crew | A | 14 | 15.6 | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.0 | 0.43 |
| Central Series Four | Crew | A | 3 | 8.3 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.7 | 1.99 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 2.03 |
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.7 | 1.91 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | -0.10 |
| Fairifeld Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.3 | 1.74 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alex Bowdler |  The Williams School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
