Mystic Lake TR

HostTufts
Date04/09/2022
TypeFundamental
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	12–2
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–4
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–5
4	Boston University	Terriers	8–6
5	Brown University	Bears	7–7
6	Northeastern University	Huskies	5–9
7	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	5–7
8	Tufts University	Jumbalaya	5–7
9	University of Rhode Island	Rams	3–9
10	Connecticut College	Camels	2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,258 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 63 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.633 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.42 ± 0.27: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	5	7.62 school +0.13, home +0.36	Bryan Trammell / Leo Terry 2.27 John Eastman / Maisie Macgillivray 2.64 Jack Flores / Naomi Pedersen 2.12	56%	12–2 (86%)	+4.1
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	8.41 school +0.38	Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 2.77 Grant Gridley / Ethan Snyder 2.85 William Bailey / Ian Coen 2.39	75%	10–4 (71%)	−0.5
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	6.89 school +0.34	Nicholas Hurley / Madeleine Sharp 2.21 Oliver Hurwitz / Maya Nguyen 2.98 Griffin Lapham / Faye Benjamin 1.26	40%	9–5 (64%)	+3.4
4	Boston University Terriers	2	8.09	Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky 2.71 Noah Robitshek / Abigail Murray 2.83 Elliott Mendenhall / Lachlan Hooper 2.52	68%	8–6 (57%)	−1.5
5	Brown University Bears	3	8.12 school +0.28	William George / Jacqueline Rice 2.51 Jed Bell / Helen Horangic 2.78 5–6 Thomas Styron / Olivia Miller 2.54 5–6 Jed Bell / Janelle Li 2.73 1–1 Connor Macken / Catherine Morrissette 2.50 1–1	66%	6–7 (46%)	−2.5
6	Northeastern University Huskies	8	6.90 school +0.19	Everett Nash / Reid Wishner 2.33 Joshua Dillon / Rob Brower 1.94 Will Priebe / Jack Denker 2.38	38%	5–9 (36%)	−0.4
7	Salve Regina University Seahawks	9	5.58 school −0.77	Alex Bowdler / Frances Donahoe 2.37 Nils Tullberg / Caroline Mcneil 2.24 Emil Tullberg / Hannah Mailey	23%	5–7 (42%)	+2.2
8	Tufts University Jumbalaya	4	7.30 school +0.13, home +0.36	Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam 2.04 Adrien Bellanger / Matthew Caplan 2.11 Connor Sheridan / Rachel Bonanno 2.72 5–5 Shea Smith / Lucy Belknap 0–2	60%	5–7 (42%)	−2.2
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	6	7.01 school −0.20	Zachary Champney / Kevin Stamp 2.35 Meghan Haviland / Jack Honan 2.10 Miles Williams / Emilia Marino 2.73	45%	2–8 (20%)	−2.5
10	Connecticut College Camels	10	4.71 school +0.37	Ryan Mckinney / Renee Smith Charles Bresnahan / Ruth Reischmann 1–6 Wade Anthony / Alejandro Amezcua 1.46 0–6 Andrew Powers / Abigail Lenox 1.78 1–4	12%	1–8 (11%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Tufts University Jumbos	7.62	9.37	12–2	7.9	+1.75	4.7	1%
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	6.89	8.07	9–5	5.6	+1.18	2.9	4%
7	Salve Regina University Seahawks	5.58	6.72	5–7	2.8	+1.13	1.9	9%
10	Connecticut College Camels	4.71	4.56	1–8	1.1	−0.14	0.0	72%
6	Northeastern University Huskies	6.90	6.75	5–9	5.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	8.41	8.19	10–4	10.5	−0.22	0.1	76%
4	Boston University Terriers	8.09	7.56	8–6	9.5	−0.52	0.6	89%
5	Brown University Bears	8.12	7.22	6–7	8.5	−0.91	1.7	97%
8	Tufts University Jumbalaya	7.30	6.25	5–7	7.2	−1.04	1.6	97%
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	7.01	5.59	2–8	4.5	−1.42	2.4	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bryan Trammell	Tufts University	2.27	4.02	12–2	7.9	+1.75	4.7	1%
Nicholas Hurley	Dartmouth College	2.21	3.38	9–5	5.6	+1.18	2.9	4%
Griffin Lapham	Dartmouth College	1.26	2.43	9–5	5.6	+1.18	2.9	4%
Alex Bowdler	Salve Regina University	2.37	3.50	5–7	2.8	+1.13	1.9	9%
Nils Tullberg	Salve Regina University	2.24	3.38	5–7	2.8	+1.13	1.9	9%
Emil Tullberg	Salve Regina University	1.53	2.66	5–7	2.8	+1.13	1.9	9%
Charles Bresnahan	Connecticut College	0.98	1.26	1–6	0.8	+0.28	0.0	61%
Andrew Powers	Connecticut College	1.78	1.84	1–4	1.0	+0.06	0.0	67%
Ryan Mckinney	Connecticut College	1.35	1.21	1–8	1.1	−0.14	0.0	72%
Joshua Dillon	Northeastern University	1.94	1.79	5–9	5.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
Will Priebe	Northeastern University	2.38	2.23	5–9	5.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.52	1.99	8–6	9.5	−0.52	0.6	89%
William George	Brown University	2.51	1.60	6–7	8.5	−0.91	1.7	97%
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.78	1.87	6–7	8.5	−0.91	1.7	97%
Connor Rosow	Tufts University	2.04	1.00	5–7	7.2	−1.04	1.6	97%
Adrien Bellanger	Tufts University	2.11	1.07	5–7	7.2	−1.04	1.6	97%
Thomas Styron	Brown University	2.54	1.45	5–6	7.6	−1.09	2.1	98%
Zachary Champney	University of Rhode Island	2.35	0.93	2–8	4.5	−1.42	2.4	99%
Wade Anthony	Connecticut College	1.46	-1.54	0–6	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University Hawks	Northeastern University Huskies	83%
1	2	Dartmouth College Big Green	Salve Regina University Seahawks	80%
1	3	Tufts University Jumbos	Connecticut College Camels	97%
1	4	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbalaya	67%
1	5	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	76%
1	6	Dartmouth College Big Green	Northeastern University Huskies	49%	upset
1	7	Roger Williams University Hawks	Connecticut College Camels	98%
1	8	Boston University Terriers	Salve Regina University Seahawks	93%
1	9	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Rhode Island Rams	63%
1	10	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbalaya	68%
1	11	Dartmouth College Big Green	Connecticut College Camels	85%
1	12	Boston University Terriers	Northeastern University Huskies	77%
1	13	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	80%
1	14	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Salve Regina University Seahawks	87%
1	15	Tufts University Jumbos	Brown University Bears	36%	upset
1	16	Boston University Terriers	Connecticut College Camels	97%
1	17	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Rhode Island Rams	46%	upset
1	18	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbalaya	36%	upset
1	19	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	30%	upset
1	20	Salve Regina University Seahawks	Brown University Bears	7%	upset
1	21	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	26%	upset
1	22	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Connecticut College Camels	95%
1	23	Tufts University Jumbos	Dartmouth College Big Green	67%
1	24	Northeastern University Huskies	Salve Regina University Seahawks	79%
1	25	Roger Williams University Hawks	Brown University Bears	57%
1	26	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbalaya	39%	upset
1	27	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers	38%	upset
1	28	Connecticut College Camels	Salve Regina University Seahawks	32%	upset
1	29	Roger Williams University Hawks	Dartmouth College Big Green	82%
1	30	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	78%
1	31	Tufts University Jumbos	Tufts University Jumbalaya	54%
1	32	Salve Regina University Seahawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	20%	upset
1	33	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	58%
1	34	Northeastern University Huskies	Connecticut College Camels	84%
1	35	Dartmouth College Big Green	Brown University Bears	22%	upset
1	36	Tufts University Jumbos	Salve Regina University Seahawks	88%
1	37	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbalaya	87%
1	38	Northeastern University Huskies	University of Rhode Island Rams	47%	upset
1	39	Boston University Terriers	Dartmouth College Big Green	77%
1	41	Salve Regina University Seahawks	Roger Williams University Hawks	6%	upset
1	42	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos	33%	upset
1	43	Dartmouth College Big Green	Tufts University Jumbalaya	58%
1	45	Boston University Terriers	Brown University Bears	52%
2	47	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Salve Regina University Seahawks	86%
2	48	Salve Regina University Seahawks	Connecticut College Camels	69%
2	49	Tufts University Jumbalaya	University of Rhode Island Rams	62%
2	50	Salve Regina University Seahawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	21%	upset
2	51	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Connecticut College Camels	95%
3	52	Boston University Terriers	Dartmouth College Big Green	76%
3	53	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	32%	upset
3	54	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	77%
3	55	Dartmouth College Big Green	Tufts University Jumbos	33%	upset
3	56	Boston University Terriers	Northeastern University Huskies	76%
3	57	Roger Williams University Hawks	Brown University Bears	57%
3	58	Dartmouth College Big Green	Northeastern University Huskies	50%
3	59	Tufts University Jumbos	Brown University Bears	38%	upset
3	60	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	58%
3	61	Tufts University Jumbos	Northeastern University Huskies	68%
3	62	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	48%	upset
3	63	Dartmouth College Big Green	Roger Williams University Hawks	19%	upset
3	64	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers	40%	upset
3	65	Roger Williams University Hawks	Northeastern University Huskies	82%
3	66	Brown University Bears	Dartmouth College Big Green	77%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Hawks	Green	Terriers	Bears	Huskies	Seahawks	Jumbalaya	Rams	Camels
Tufts University Jumbos	10–8	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	✕	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–2	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–3	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W
Brown University Bears	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	5–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	3–6	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L
Tufts University Jumbalaya	10–8	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	✕	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–7	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Connecticut College Camels	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Seahawks	Jumbalaya	Rams	Camels
Tufts University Jumbos	3–0	✕	W	✕	W	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	2–1	L	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbalaya	3–0	✕	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–2	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–3	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Hawks	Green	Terriers	Bears	Huskies	Jumbalaya
Tufts University Jumbos	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	✕
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	W	W	✕	L	L	W	W
Boston University Terriers	2–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L
Brown University Bears	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Northeastern University Huskies	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Tufts University Jumbalaya	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
2	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
3	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
4	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbalaya	3-4-5
5	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
6	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
7	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
8	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
9	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
10	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbalaya	1-5-6
11	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
12	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
14	Jumbalaya	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
15	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
16	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
17	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
18	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Jumbalaya	3-4-5
19	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
20	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
22	Jumbalaya	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
23	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
24	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
25	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
26	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Jumbalaya	2-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
28	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
29	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
31	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Jumbalaya	3-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
33	Hawks	1-4-5 DSQ	def.	Terriers	2-3-6 DSQ
34	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
35	Big Green	1-3-5 DSQ	def.	Bears	2-4-6 DSQ
36	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
37	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbalaya	1-5-6
38	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
39	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6 DSQ
40	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
41	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
42	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbalaya	3-4-6
44	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6 DNS
45	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
46	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
47	Jumbalaya	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
48	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
49	Jumbalaya	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
50	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
51	Jumbalaya	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
52	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
53	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6 DNF
54	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Huskies	1-4-6
55	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
56	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
57	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
58	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6 DNF
59	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
60	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
61	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
62	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
63	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
64	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
65	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
66	Bears	2-4-5	def.	Big Green	1-3-6 DSQ

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	Bryan Trammell '23 Jack Flores '25 John Eastman '25	Leo Terry '25 Naomi Pedersen '25 Maisie Macgillivray '25
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Grant Gridley '22 Mathieu Dale '25 William Bailey '24	Ethan Snyder '25 Annika Irene '23 Ian Coen '24
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Griffin Lapham '25 Nicholas Hurley '23 Oliver Hurwitz '25	Faye Benjamin '25 Madeleine Sharp '22 Maya Nguyen '24
Boston University	Terriers	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Micky Munns '23 Noah Robitshek '25	Lachlan Hooper '25 Matthew Hamelsky '23 Abigail Murray '23
Brown University	Bears	Connor Macken '24 Jed Bell '23 Thomas Styron '24 William George '23	Catherine Morrissette '24 Helen Horangic '25 Janelle Li '25 Olivia Miller '25 Jacqueline Rice '24
Northeastern University	Huskies	Everett Nash '24 Joshua Dillon '25 Will Priebe '24	Reid Wishner '24 Rob Brower '23 Jack Denker '22
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Alex Bowdler '22 Emil Tullberg '25 Nils Tullberg '23	Frances Donahoe '24 Hannah Mailey '25 Caroline Mcneil '22
Tufts University	Jumbalaya	Adrien Bellanger '25 Connor Rosow '24 Connor Sheridan '22 Shea Smith '25	Matthew Caplan '25 Magdelaina Putnam '25 Rachel Bonanno '25 Lucy Belknap '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Meghan Haviland '22 Miles Williams '24 Zachary Champney '22	Jack Honan '23 Emilia Marino '22 Kevin Stamp '22
Connecticut College	Camels	Andrew Powers '24 Charles Bresnahan '23 Ryan Mckinney '23 Wade Anthony '24	Abigail Lenox '23 Ruth Reischmann '23 Renee Smith '24 Alejandro Amezcua '25

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1001.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 12.2 kn

Gusts to 26.4 kn

From SSW (196°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1001.9 hPa Rain0.31 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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