Dartmouth College '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 2.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–27 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 13–13 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 20–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (60 matches) the record is 33–27 against 25.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.38 | 2.27 | 10–10 | 10.4 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2023-03-05 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.26 | 2.61 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.21 | 3.38 | 9–5 | 5.6 | +1.18 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 1.78 | 2.86 | 11–9 | 6.6 | +1.08 | 3.5 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 8 | 8.5 | 3.40 |
| 2023 Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 3.75 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.5 | 2.78 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.5 | 2.12 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.7 | 0.77 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 2.77 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Throphy | Skipper | C | 15 | 9.7 | 2.81 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.8 | 2.66 |
| The Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 2.41 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 2.41 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 1.96 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 8 | 14.6 | 0.66 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 1.56 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
