| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 4–6 |
| 6 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 3–7 |
| 7 | |
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 3–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,353 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 40 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.553 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.25 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 21% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 7.84 | 9.34 | 6–4 | 3.6 | +1.50 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 7 | Connecticut College Camels 2 | 6.33 | 6.95 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 10.39 | 10.92 | 9–1 | 8.5 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 6 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 6.64 | 6.95 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 4 | Dartmouth College Big Green | 8.56 | 8.34 | 5–5 | 5.4 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2 | Connecticut College Camels 1 | 9.80 | 9.36 | 7–3 | 7.7 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Yale University Bulldogs | 7.71 | 7.18 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 8 | Tufts University Jumbos | 7.92 | 6.59 | 3–7 | 5.4 | −1.33 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | University of Rhode Island | 3.12 | 4.62 | 6–4 | 3.6 | +1.50 | 2.6 | 6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | Connecticut College | 1.72 | 2.39 | 3–5 | 1.9 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Ryan Mckinney | Connecticut College | 1.96 | 2.62 | 3–5 | 1.9 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Powers | Connecticut College | 1.89 | 2.51 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.55 | 4.08 | 9–1 | 8.5 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 54% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | University of Rhode Island | 2.53 | 3.03 | 2–4 | 1.6 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Nicholas Hurley | Dartmouth College | 2.26 | 2.61 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Bella Casaretto | Dartmouth College | 2.11 | 1.62 | 3–2 | 3.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Sam Tobin | Yale University | 2.67 | 2.14 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Alex Adams | Yale University | 2.31 | 1.78 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Walter Henry | Connecticut College | 2.92 | 2.35 | 6–3 | 6.8 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Bryan Trammell | Tufts University | 2.75 | 1.42 | 3–7 | 5.4 | −1.33 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Connor Rosow | Tufts University | 2.43 | 1.10 | 3–7 | 5.4 | −1.33 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Thomas Whittemore | Connecticut College | 3.31 | 1.82 | 4–3 | 5.5 | −1.49 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | 1 | Rams | Green | Bulldogs | Catamounts | 2 | Jumbos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 6–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 7–7 | L | ✕ | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 5–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 5–2 | W | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 2–5 | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 7–7 | L | ✕ | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | 1 | Rams | Green | Bulldogs | Catamounts | 2 | Jumbos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | – | – | W | – |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | – | – | L | – |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | – | – | L | – |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–1 | – | L | – | – | ✕ | W | L | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–2 | – | W | – | – | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–1 | – | W | – | – | L | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Green | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Camels 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Camels 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Camels 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Camels 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Camels 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Catamounts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Camels 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Camels 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
