Gray Hemans

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.73 (fleet 3.79)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.02 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 139–100 (58%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2024	5	50–31	—
Spring 2023	6	35–34	—
Spring 2022	5	54–35	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 16 graded regattas (239 matches) the record is 139–100 against 138.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2024-04-28	ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.16	3.18	11–8	10.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
2024-04-13	NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy	skipper	3.16	2.60	5–5	6.0	−0.57	0.4	88%
2024-04-06	Yale Women's Team Race	skipper	3.11	3.11	9–6	9.0	−0.00	0.0	62%
2024-03-30	Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy	skipper	3.00	4.00	10–6	7.2	+1.01	2.0	8%
2024-03-23	Seahawk Women's Team Race	skipper	2.94	3.02	15–6	14.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
2023-04-29	Women's Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.06	0.61	1–8	5.0	−2.44	6.1	>99%
2023-04-15	NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship	skipper	2.99	3.69	10–5	7.7	+0.70	1.1	16%
2023-04-08	Yale Women's Team Race	skipper	2.96	2.92	6–8	6.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
2023-04-01	Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy	skipper	2.99	2.77	5–6	5.5	−0.22	0.1	75%
2023-03-25	Jen Harris Team Race	skipper	2.96	2.84	8–2	8.2	−0.12	0.0	73%
2023-03-05	Thames River Team Race	skipper	2.92	2.70	5–5	5.4	−0.21	0.1	75%
2022-04-23	Women's Team Race National Championship	skipper	2.85	2.81	9–7	9.1	−0.04	0.0	64%
2022-04-09	Camel Women's Team Race	skipper	2.72	3.99	14–5	9.8	+1.26	3.7	2%
2022-04-02	NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy	skipper	2.77	2.66	11–7	11.4	−0.11	0.0	69%
2022-03-05	Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT	skipper	2.86	1.56	3–12	6.6	−1.30	3.1	99%
2022-02-26	Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race	skipper	2.59	3.16	17–4	15.6	+0.57	0.6	29%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2024 Team page Season
Yale Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	15	60%	—
Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's	Skipper	B	8	7.6	3.98
Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's	Skipper	B	3	6.7	3.69
Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	21	71%	—
ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	19	58%	—
Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	16	62%	—
NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	17	59%	—
Fall 2023 Team page Season
The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	4	6.5	3.71
Stu Nelson Women's	Skipper	B	12	5.9	3.73
Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	B	5	7.2	3.36
Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's	Skipper	B	6	7.2	3.42
Spring 2023 Team page Season
Yale Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	14	43%	—
Women's Team Race National Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	11	18%	—
Thames River Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	50%	—
College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's	Skipper	B	6	6.5	3.49
College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's	Skipper	B	10	10.1	3.26
NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	17	71%	—
NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	12	5.8	3.30
Jen Harris Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	10	80%	—
Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	11	46%	—
Fall 2022 Team page Season
Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's	Skipper	B	9	4.7	4.74
Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's	Skipper	B	10	5.9	3.65
Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	12	4.8	4.02
Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's	Skipper	A	14	8.0	3.60
Regis Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	9	7.7	3.24
The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.1	3.84
Spring 2022 Team page Season
Women's Team Race National Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	16	56%	—
Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's	Skipper	TR	15	20%	—
College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's	Skipper	A	11	9.1	3.82
College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's	Skipper	A	12	5.2	4.01
Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	21	81%	—
NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	21	62%	—
NEISA Women's Championship Women's	Skipper	B	12	5.8	3.25
Camel Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	19	74%	—
Fall 2021 Team page Season
Yale Women's Women's	Skipper	B	12	6.4	3.44
Regis Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	8	4.0	4.35
The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	B	12	4.9	3.55
Bears Invite	Skipper	A	7	4.7	3.87
2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	B	18	7.2	3.83
The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	14	7.1	3.26

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Gray Hemans	Newport Harbor High School	'21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →