Women's Team Race National Championship

HostBrown
Date04/23/2022
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–3
2	Boston College	Eagles	12–4
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–4
4	Brown University	Bears	11–5
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–7
6	Harvard University	Crimson	7–9
7	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–6
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–6
9	Cornell University	Big Red	3–8
10	Georgetown University	Hoyas	2–9
11	University of South Florida	Bulls	2–9
12	University of Michigan	Wolverines	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,606 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 70 of 81 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.392 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.30 school +0.28	Carmen Cowles / Becca Rose 3.45 9–2 Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 3.26 7–2 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.30 7–2 Emma Cowles / Anisha Arcot 3.22 6–1 Mia Nicolosi / Meredith Ryan 3.29 6–1 Carmen Cowles / Megan Grimes 3.45 4–1	74%	13–3 (81%)	+1.2
2	Boston College Eagles	3	10.05 school +0.28	Sophia Reineke / Laura Ferraris 3.35 11–4 Colleen O'Brien / Elizabeth Shanahan 3.24 10–1 Michaela O'Brien / Lilly Mathieu 3.20 10–1 Colleen O'Brien / Nicole Moeder 3.19 2–3 Michaela O'Brien / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.12 1–3 Michaela O'Brien / Laura Ferraris 3.20 1–0 Sophia Reineke / Emma Batcher 3.33 1–0	69%	12–4 (75%)	+1.0
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.29 school +0.48	Michelle Lahrkamp / Patricia Gerli 3.44 Hannah Freeman / Sammy Pickell 3.22 9–1 Stephanie Houck / Abigail Tindall 3.14 8–1 Stephanie Houck / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.10 4–3 Hannah Freeman / Abigail Tindall 3.25 2–3 Hannah Freeman / Grace Austin 3.22 1–0	74%	12–4 (75%)	+0.2
4	Brown University Bears	4	9.59 school +0.26, home +0.37	Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.28 Caroline Bayless / Madeleine Mcgrath 2.87 Blaire Mccarthy / Nora Ong 2.76 6–4 Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 2.84 5–1	58%	11–5 (69%)	+1.7
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	9.52 school +0.45	Maddie Hawkins / Carlota Hopkins Guerra 3.52 6–6 Sarah Young / Elise Donovan 2.64 5–4 Sarah Young / Yumi Yoshiyasu 2.48 4–3 Gray Hemans / Yumi Yoshiyasu 2.85 3–4 Gray Hemans / Caroline Oyster 2.89 3–2 Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.75 3–1 Gray Hemans / Eloise Burn 2.99 3–1	57%	9–7 (56%)	−0.1
6	Harvard University Crimson	7	9.16 school +0.26	Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.92 Emma Kaneti / Marleigh Belsley 3.10 4–6 Cordelia Burn / Sophia Montgomery 2.84 4–6 Emma Kaneti / Marbella Marlo 3.13 3–3 Cordelia Burn / Marleigh Belsley 2.84 3–3	48%	7–9 (44%)	−0.7
7	Tulane University Green Wave	8	8.49	Mia Hanes / Gillian Perrell 2.47 3–4 Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.74 3–4 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.26 2–3 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Annie Richard 3.12 2–2 Caroline Benson / Lydia Brown 2.97 1–1 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lucy Spearman 3.29 1–1 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.47 1–1 Caroline Benson / Cam Farrah 2.82 1–1 Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.33 1–1	45%	5–6 (45%)	+0.0
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	8.82	Kaila Pfrang / Maile Jim 2.83 5–5 Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.07 3–5 Brooke Schmelz / Mercedes Escandon 2.87 3–2 Brooke Schmelz / Grace Mao 3.01 0–3 Dana Haig / Veronika Silkin 3.07 2–1 Brooke Schmelz / Shayne Bersin 3.02 2–1 Kaila Pfrang / Samantha Karlson 2.78 0–1	49%	5–6 (45%)	−0.4
9	Cornell University Big Red	9	8.35 school −0.07	Bridget Green / Jana Laurendeau 3.12 2–4 Brooke Shachoy / Amelia Neumann 2.73 1–5 Lilly Myers / Amelia Neumann 2.70 2–3 Brooke Shachoy / Gabbi Delbello 2.91 1–2 Bridget Green / Gabbi Delbello 3.26 0–3 Lilly Myers / Lilly Bjerke 2.58 1–2 Lilly Myers / Gabbi Delbello 2.89 0–2 Brooke Shachoy / Jana Laurendeau 2.77 1–1 Lauren Ehnot / Lilly Bjerke 2.04 0–2 Lauren Ehnot / Gabbi Delbello 2.36 1–0	39%	3–8 (27%)	−1.3
10	Georgetown University Hoyas	10	7.79 school +0.32	Morgan Sailer / Eva Fortunato 2.30 2–7 Piper Holthus / Victoria Boatwright 2.85 1–8 Riley Kloc / Morgan Rice 2.31 0–8 Riley Kloc / Addi Harris 2.32 2–1 Morgan Sailer / Grace Flanagan 2.25 0–2 Piper Holthus / Grace Flanagan 2.80 1–1	31%	2–9 (18%)	−1.5
11	University of South Florida Bulls	11	6.52 school +0.05	Emma Shakespeare / Olivia Smith 2.23 Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.83 Sydney Monahan / Jackie Morrison 2.39	15%	2–9 (18%)	+0.3
12	University of Michigan Wolverines	12	5.52 school −0.12	Jenna Probst / Asha Baddi 2.49 Christiana Scheibner / Abigail Paul 1.81 0–7 Caroline Grin / Lily Allen 0–7 Christiana Scheibner / Caroline Grin 1.76 0–4 Emily Pytell / Lily Allen 1.74 0–3 Emily Pytell / Abigail Paul 1.77 0–1	5%	0–11 (0%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Brown University	9.59	10.15	11–5	9.3	+0.56	0.7	25%
1	Yale University	10.30	10.77	13–3	11.8	+0.46	0.4	36%
2	Boston College	10.05	10.41	12–4	11.0	+0.37	0.3	39%
11	University of South Florida	6.52	6.84	2–9	1.7	+0.32	0.1	53%
3	Stanford University	10.29	10.37	12–4	11.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
7	Tulane University	8.49	8.52	5–6	5.0	+0.03	0.0	62%
5	Dartmouth College	9.52	9.48	9–7	9.1	−0.04	0.0	64%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.82	8.63	5–6	5.4	−0.20	0.1	73%
6	Harvard University	9.16	8.94	7–9	7.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
9	Cornell University	8.35	7.55	3–8	4.3	−0.80	0.7	92%
10	Georgetown University	7.79	6.65	2–9	3.5	−1.15	1.1	96%
12	University of Michigan	5.52	2.52	0–11	0.5	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Olivia Belda	Brown University	3.28	3.84	11–5	9.3	+0.56	0.7	25%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.45	3.91	13–3	11.8	+0.46	0.4	36%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.26	3.73	13–3	11.8	+0.46	0.4	36%
Sophia Reineke	Boston College	3.35	3.72	12–4	11.0	+0.37	0.3	39%
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.22	3.31	12–4	11.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.47	2.50	5–6	5.0	+0.03	0.0	62%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	3.26	3.29	5–6	5.0	+0.03	0.0	62%
Brooke Shachoy	Cornell University	2.73	2.53	5–6	5.4	−0.20	0.1	73%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.92	2.71	7–9	7.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	2.84	2.63	7–9	7.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
Lilly Myers	Cornell University	2.70	2.03	3–7	4.0	−0.67	0.5	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Yale University	Tulane University	82%
	2	Stanford University	Cornell University	83%
	3	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	63%
	4	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
	5	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	78%
	6	Brown University	University of Michigan	97%
	7	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	70%
	8	Boston College	Cornell University	80%
	9	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
	10	Stanford University	University of Michigan	99%
	11	Harvard University	Georgetown University	79%
	12	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
	13	Tulane University	University of South Florida	88%
	14	Cornell University	University of Michigan	94%
	15	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	85%
	16	Brown University	Boston College	37%	upset
	17	Yale University	Harvard University	76%
	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	18%	upset
	19	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	95%
	20	Boston College	University of Michigan	98%
	21	Yale University	Georgetown University	92%
	22	Stanford University	Brown University	67%
	23	Harvard University	Tulane University	68%
	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	55%
	25	Dartmouth College	Yale University	30%	upset
	26	Boston College	Stanford University	45%	upset
	27	Harvard University	University of South Florida	93%
	28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	97%
	29	Tulane University	Georgetown University	65%
	30	Brown University	Cornell University	72%
	31	Boston College	Harvard University	72%
	32	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	81%
	33	Stanford University	Georgetown University	93%
	34	Cornell University	University of South Florida	78%
	35	Tulane University	University of Michigan	95%
	36	Brown University	Dartmouth College	54%
	37	Yale University	Stanford University	51%
	38	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of South Florida	90%
	39	Cornell University	Georgetown University	65%
	40	Boston College	Tulane University	85%
	41	Brown University	Harvard University	62%
	42	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	98%
	43	Stanford University	University of South Florida	98%
	44	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Georgetown University	72%
	45	Brown University	Tulane University	75%
	46	Harvard University	University of Michigan	98%
	47	Yale University	Cornell University	88%
	48	Boston College	Dartmouth College	65%
	49	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
	50	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	77%
	51	Brown University	Georgetown University	85%
	52	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	72%
	53	Yale University	Boston College	58%
	54	Harvard University	Cornell University	66%
	55	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	92%
	56	Stanford University	Tulane University	86%
	57	Brown University	Yale University	33%	upset
	58	University of South Florida	Boston College	3%	upset
	59	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	89%
	60	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
	61	Yale University	University of Michigan	99%
	62	Brown University	University of South Florida	95%
	63	Boston College	Georgetown University	90%
	64	Tulane University	Cornell University	69%
	65	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
	66	Stanford University	Harvard University	75%
6	67	Boston College	Stanford University	45%	upset
6	68	Yale University	Dartmouth College	70%
6	69	Brown University	Harvard University	62%
6	70	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	72%
6	71	Boston College	Harvard University	72%
6	72	Yale University	Brown University	67%
6	73	Stanford University	Harvard University	75%
6	74	Yale University	Boston College	58%
6	75	Dartmouth College	Brown University	46%	upset
6	76	Yale University	Harvard University	77%
6	77	Boston College	Dartmouth College	64%
6	78	Stanford University	Brown University	68%
6	79	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	37%	upset
6	80	Stanford University	Yale University	49%	upset
6	81	Boston College	Brown University	63%

Round 0

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Bears	Green	Crimson	Wave	Engineers	Red	Hoyas	Bulls	Wolverines
Yale University Bulldogs	9–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	8–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–1	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–9	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Bears	Green	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
3	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
4	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
7	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
8	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
12	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
13	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
14	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
15	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
16	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
17	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
18	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
19	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
23	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
24	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
25	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
26	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
27	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
28	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
29	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
30	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
33	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
34	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
35	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
36	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
37	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
38	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
39	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
41	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
42	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
44	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
45	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
46	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
47	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
48	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
49	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
50	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
51	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
52	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
53	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
54	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
55	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
56	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
57	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
58	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
59	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
60	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
61	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
62	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
63	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
64	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
65	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
66	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
67	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
68	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
69	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
70	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
71	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
72	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
73	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
74	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
75	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
77	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
78	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
79	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
80	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
81	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Becca Rose '22 Megan Grimes '24 Anisha Arcot '23 Helena Ware '23 Meredith Ryan '23 Ximena Escobar '25
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24 Sophia Reineke '22	Elizabeth Shanahan '23 Nicole Moeder '22 Lilly Mathieu '23 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Laura Ferraris '22 Emma Batcher '22
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Stephanie Houck '21	Sammy Pickell '22 Abigail Tindall '23 Grace Austin '24 Patricia Gerli '23 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Caroline Bayless '23 Olivia Belda '22	Savannah Young '25 Nora Ong '23 Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Emma Montgomery '22
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Gray Hemans '25 Maddie Hawkins '24 Sarah Young '25	Caroline Oyster '24 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Eloise Burn '21 Carlota Hopkins Guerra '22 Aisling Sullivan '22 Elise Donovan '24
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Emma Kaneti '22 Sarah Burn '24	Sophia Montgomery '25 Marleigh Belsley '24 Marbella Marlo '24 Corinne Lee '23
Tulane University	Green Wave	Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24	Lydia Brown '23 Abigail Borggaard '24 Cam Farrah '23 Lucy Spearman '25 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Annie Richard '23 Gillian Perrell '24 Essie Clifton '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Kaila Pfrang '21	Mercedes Escandon '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Grace Mao '23 Veronika Silkin '22 Maile Jim '22 Samantha Karlson '25
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lauren Ehnot '24 Lilly Myers '23	Gabbi Delbello '23 Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Lilly Bjerke '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Morgan Sailer '22 Piper Holthus '25 Riley Kloc '23	Grace Flanagan '23 Eva Fortunato '23 Victoria Boatwright '22 Morgan Rice '25 Addi Harris '24
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23	Olivia Smith '23 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Jackie Morrison '23
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Caroline Grin '25 Christiana Scheibner '23 Emily Pytell '25 Jenna Probst '22	Lily Allen '23 Abigail Paul '25 Caroline Grin '25 Asha Baddi '24

Conditions — 04/23/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 36% · Pressure 1026.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 13.0 kn

From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1026.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

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