Brown University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.01 (fleet 4.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 114–56 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 7 | 58–41 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 3 | 21–6 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 22–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (170 matches) the record is 114–56 against 111.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 22 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.28 | 3.84 | 11–5 | 9.3 | +0.56 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2022-04-09 | 2022 NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.32 | 2.47 | 6–7 | 8.0 | −0.86 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 3.32 | 2.24 | 11–9 | 15.0 | −1.08 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2022-03-26 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.39 | 3.75 | 12–7 | 10.7 | +0.36 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2022-03-19 | 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.49 | 2.76 | 4–6 | 5.5 | −0.73 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.50 | 2.95 | 6–1 | 6.3 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 88% |
| 2022-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.53 | 2.47 | 8–6 | 10.4 | −1.06 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 3.36 | 6.36 | 9–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 16% |
| 2021-04-25 | NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.38 | 3.15 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2021-04-24 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 3.37 | 3.05 | 5–1 | 5.2 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 4.09 | 13–2 | 11.0 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.87 | 3.58 | 12–7 | 9.5 | +0.70 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.40 | 5.40 | 10–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 8.5 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 4.48 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 4.27 |
| College Sailing Open Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 4.29 |
| College Sailing Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 3.78 |
| New England Dinghy Champs for the CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | 3.62 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.8 | 4.01 |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| 2022 NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 4.2 | 4.38 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.2 | 3.56 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.5 | 2.78 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 4.43 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.4 | 4.02 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 4.54 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.3 | 3.56 |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 4.19 |
| NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.3 | 4.23 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 3.52 |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.4 | 4.92 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 3.48 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.70 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.6 | 3.49 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.1 | 3.61 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 3.70 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.0 | 3.90 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 5.63 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 2.55 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.4 | 3.22 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.7 | 3.65 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 4.25 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.58 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.4 | 5.53 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | 2.85 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 2.63 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 2.29 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 2.45 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
