2022 NEISA Team Race Championship

HostHarvard
Date04/09/2022
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–4
2	Harvard University	Crimson	11–5
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	11–5
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–6
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–7
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	8–8
7	Brown University	Bears	5–6
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–6
9	Boston College	Eagles	4–7
10	Connecticut College	Camels	4–7
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	1–10
12	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,258 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 78 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.61 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.55 school +0.28	Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.03 Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.60 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.62 6–2 Jack Egan / Benjamin Markert 3.63 6–2	80%	12–4 (75%)	−0.9
2	Harvard University Crimson	2	10.95 school +0.24, home +0.36	Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.42 Dylan Ascencios / Tyler Masuyama 3.14 8–1 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.80 8–1 Dylan Ascencios / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.28 4–4 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee 3.60 4–4	68%	12–5 (71%)	+0.4
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	10.72 school +0.34	Robert Bragg / Eloise Burn 3.62 10–4 William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.17 10–4 Maddie Hawkins / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.60 9–4 Maddie Hawkins / Carlota Hopkins Guerra 3.64 1–2 Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.50 0–2 William Michels / Drew Clutterbuck 3.13 0–2	61%	10–6 (62%)	+0.2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.90 school +0.38	Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.62 Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.49 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.40	68%	10–6 (62%)	−0.9
5	Tufts University Jumbos	7	10.04 school +0.13	Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.32 Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.21 Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.38 8–6 Ansgar Jordan / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.24 1–0	47%	9–6 (60%)	+2.0
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	11	8.15 school −0.20	Aidan Naughton / Taylor Borges 3.19 Parker Colantuono / Clare Laroche 2.87 Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.26	13%	9–8 (53%)	+6.7
7	Brown University Bears	4	10.25 school +0.28	Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.32 6–6 Jack Murphy / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.32 6–6 Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.31 6–6 Olivia Belda / Hunter Zonnenberg 3.37 0–1 Jack Murphy / Emma Montgomery 3.38 0–1 Connor Nelson / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.34 0–1	62%	6–7 (46%)	−2.0
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	9.38 school −0.10	Colman Schofield / Mary Tran 3.20 Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.23 Matthew Kickhafer / Lauren O'Neill 3.05 5–7 Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Mason 2.98 0–1	43%	5–8 (38%)	−0.6
9	Boston College Eagles	6	10.46 school +0.30	Robert Hunter / Emma Batcher 3.36 Jack Denatale / Michaela O'Brien 3.39 1–5 Sophia Reineke / Laura Ferraris 3.44 1–5 Jack Denatale / Laura Ferraris 3.51 1–2 Sophia Reineke / Declan Mcgranahan 3.20 1–2	58%	2–7 (22%)	−3.2
10	Connecticut College Camels	12	8.19 school +0.37	Walter Henry / Katherine Wetzel 1.81 Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 2.92 0–4 Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.08 0–4 Cj Mckenna / Liam Gronda 2.89 1–0 Thomas Whittemore / Jean-Michel Bus 3.02 1–0	10%	1–4 (20%)	+0.5
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	8.49	Maks Groom / Samantha Karlson 2.70 John Ped / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.65 1–6 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.11 1–6 John Ped / Jeremy Mcculloch 2.77 0–3 Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.18 0–3	21%	1–9 (10%)	−1.1
12	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	9	8.66 school +0.22	Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.07 Thomas Hall / Cj Ricci 2.80 0–7 Thibault Antonietti / Hattie Slayton 2.60 0–5 Ellie Maus / Meghan Gonzalez 2.71 0–2 Thibault Antonietti / Meghan Gonzalez 2.50 0–2 Thomas Hall / John Seider 2.77 1–0 Thibault Antonietti / Jondall Norris 2.50 1–0	25%	1–8 (11%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	University of Rhode Island	8.15	10.47	9–8	2.3	+2.32	12.5	<1%
10	Connecticut College	8.19	9.08	1–4	0.5	+0.89	0.4	42%
5	Tufts University	10.04	10.73	9–6	7.0	+0.69	1.0	19%
2	Harvard University	10.95	11.10	12–5	11.5	+0.15	0.0	52%
3	Dartmouth College	10.72	10.79	10–6	9.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.38	9.13	5–8	5.6	−0.26	0.1	76%
4	Roger Williams University	10.90	10.60	10–6	10.9	−0.30	0.2	80%
1	Yale University	11.55	11.19	12–4	12.9	−0.36	0.2	82%
7	Brown University	10.25	9.39	6–7	8.0	−0.86	1.3	95%
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.49	7.50	1–9	2.1	−0.99	0.7	93%
12	Bowdoin College	8.66	7.51	1–8	2.2	−1.15	0.9	95%
9	Boston College	10.46	8.47	2–7	5.2	−1.99	4.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aidan Naughton	University of Rhode Island	3.19	5.50	9–8	2.3	+2.32	12.5	<1%
Joshua Bartoszuk	University of Rhode Island	2.26	4.58	9–8	2.3	+2.32	12.5	<1%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	1.81	2.71	1–4	0.5	+0.89	0.4	42%
Cj Mckenna	Connecticut College	2.92	3.81	1–4	0.5	+0.89	0.4	42%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.08	3.97	1–4	0.5	+0.89	0.4	42%
Alex Fasolo	Tufts University	3.21	3.90	9–6	7.0	+0.69	1.0	19%
Ansgar Jordan	Tufts University	3.38	4.06	9–6	7.0	+0.69	1.0	19%
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	3.14	3.29	12–5	11.5	+0.15	0.0	52%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.62	3.32	10–6	10.9	−0.30	0.2	80%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.40	3.10	10–6	10.9	−0.30	0.2	80%
Olivia Belda	Brown University	3.32	2.47	6–7	8.0	−0.86	1.3	95%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.60	1.51	1–7	2.1	−1.09	0.8	94%
Sophia Reineke	Boston College	3.44	1.45	2–7	5.2	−1.99	4.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	46%	upset
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	94%
1	4	Tufts University	Brown University	45%	upset
1	5	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	39%	upset
1	6	Yale University	Boston College	74%
1	7	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	79%
1	8	Harvard University	Connecticut College	94%
1	9	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	86%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	90%
1	11	Yale University	Tufts University	82%
1	12	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	90%
1	13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	76%
1	14	Dartmouth College	Brown University	63%
1	15	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	91%
1	16	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	18	Tufts University	Boston College	36%	upset
1	19	Connecticut College	Brown University	10%	upset
1	20	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	32%	upset
1	21	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%
1	22	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	23	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	81%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Boston College	60%
1	25	Brown University	Bowdoin College	82%
1	26	Yale University	Connecticut College	96%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	78%
1	28	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	66%
1	29	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	50%	upset
1	30	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	31	Yale University	Bowdoin College	94%
1	32	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	11%	upset
1	34	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	35	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	36	Harvard University	Boston College	60%
1	37	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	97%
1	38	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	81%
1	39	Roger Williams University	Brown University	66%
1	41	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
1	42	Dartmouth College	Boston College	56%
1	43	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	13%	upset
1	44	Yale University	Roger Williams University	66%
1	45	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
1	46	Brown University	Harvard University	34%	upset
1	48	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	27%	upset
1	49	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
1	50	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	43%	upset
1	51	Harvard University	Yale University	36%	upset
1	52	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	87%
1	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	30%	upset
1	55	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
1	56	Harvard University	Tufts University	72%
1	57	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	58	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	90%
1	60	Brown University	Boston College	46%	upset
1	61	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	62	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	46%	upset
1	63	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
1	65	Brown University	Yale University	21%	upset
2	85	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	55%
6	67	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	22%	upset
6	68	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	11%	upset
6	69	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	70%
6	70	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	49%	upset
6	71	Yale University	Tufts University	82%
6	72	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	93%
6	73	Yale University	Roger Williams University	66%
6	74	University of Rhode Island	Harvard University	6%	upset
6	75	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
6	76	University of Rhode Island	Yale University	3%	upset
6	77	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
6	78	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	55%
6	79	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	87%
6	80	Harvard University	Yale University	36%	upset
6	81	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	54%
6	82	Harvard University	Tufts University	72%
6	83	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	6%	upset
6	84	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Green	Hawks	Jumbos	Rams	Bears	Bears	Eagles	Camels	Engineers	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	9–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–3	W	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	L
Boston College Eagles	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

	Team	Rec.	Crimson	Green
	Harvard University Crimson	1–0	✕	W
	Dartmouth College Big Green	0–1	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Green	Hawks	Jumbos	Rams	Bears	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	W	✕	W	L	W	L	–	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	W	W	✕	L	L	–	–
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W	–	–
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	W	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–1	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–2	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
2	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
3	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
4	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
5	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
6	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
7	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
8	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
10	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
12	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
13	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
14	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
15	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
19	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
20	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
22	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
23	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
28	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
29	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
30	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
32	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
33	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
34	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
35	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
36	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
38	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
40	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
41	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
42	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
43	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
45	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
46	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
47	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
48	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
49	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
50	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
51	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
52	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
53	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
54	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
56	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
57	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
59	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
60	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
61	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
62	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
63	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
64	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
65	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
66	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
85	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
67	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
68	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
69	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
70	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
71	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
72	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
74	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
75	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
76	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
77	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
78	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
79	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
80	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
81	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
82	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
83	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
84	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Benjamin Markert '23 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Anisha Arcot '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Henry Burnes '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Tyler Masuyama '23 Christopher Wang '23 Cassia Lee '23
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Carlota Hopkins Guerra '22 Eloise Burn '21 Reese Bragg '25 Drew Clutterbuck '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Molly Matthews '23 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22	Amelia Carlson '24 Ann Sheridan '22 George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Celia Byrne '24
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Aidan Naughton '22 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 Parker Colantuono '22	Taylor Borges '22 Sadie Thomas '25 Clare Laroche '23
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Jack Murphy '22 Olivia Belda '22	Julia Reynolds '22 Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Emma Montgomery '22 Hunter Zonnenberg '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23	Mary Tran '22 Jack Farrell '23 Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Mason '23
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 Sophia Reineke '22	Michaela O'Brien '24 Laura Ferraris '22 Emma Batcher '22 Declan Mcgranahan '22
Connecticut College	Camels	Cj Mckenna '22 Thomas Whittemore '22 Walter Henry '22	Cecilia Bohan '24 Liam Gronda '25 Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Jean-Michel Bus '22 Katherine Wetzel '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	John Ped '21 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Jeremy Mcculloch '22 Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Samantha Karlson '25 Nicholas Abate '25 Maaya Prasad '22
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Ellie Maus '22 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Timmy Gee '25 Meghan Gonzalez '23 Hattie Slayton '23 Jondall Norris '25 Cj Ricci '24 John Seider '22

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1001.8 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.8 kn

avg · max 12.9 kn

Gusts to 25.7 kn

From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine6.8 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1001.8 hPa Rain0.23 in

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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