2022 Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/19/2022
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	9–1
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	6–4
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	5–5
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	5–5
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	3–4
6	Brown University	Bears	3–4
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	3–4
8	George Washington University	Colonials	0–7
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–1
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–1
11	Fordham University	Rams	5–2
12	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–2
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	2–5
14	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–5
15	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–6
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	1–6

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 39 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.611 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.21 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.05 school +0.24	Shawn Harvey / Nathan Sih 4.19 7–0 Teddy Nicolosi / Benjamin Markert 3.79 7–0 Jack Egan / Sam Tobin 3.80 7–0 Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.24 2–1 Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.83 2–1 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.79 2–1	75%	9–1 (90%)	+1.5
2	Stanford University Cardinal	3	11.50 school +0.43	Jack Parkin / Sammy Pickell 3.92 Wiley Rogers / Anaclare Sole 3.49 Michelle Lahrkamp / Patricia Gerli 3.64	64%	6–4 (60%)	−0.4
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	11.04 school +0.39, home +0.32	Gray Benson / Colin Macgillivray 3.33 4–3 Gavin Mcjones / Ryan Wahba 3.08 3–1 Jc Hermus / Jonah Hatt 3.81 3–1 Gray Benson / Kimmie Leonard 3.38 2–2 Olivia De Olazarra / Ryan Wahba 3.20 2–2 Jc Hermus / Fiona Lobon 3.84 2–2 Olivia De Olazarra / Jonah Hatt 3.16 1–2 Jc Hermus / Ryan Wahba 3.86 1–2	55%	6–5 (55%)	−0.0
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	6	10.39 school +0.10	Jack Reiter / Jack Hogan 3.82 2–5 Mateo Di Blasi / Spencer Kriegstein 3.33 2–5 Thomas Mccann / Addi Harris 2.79 2–4 Mariner Fagan / Jack Hogan 3.63 3–1 Jack Reiter / Annabelle Ayer 3.81 3–1 Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.41 3–1 Thomas Mccann / Annabelle Ayer 2.84 0–1	35%	5–6 (45%)	+1.1
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	9.43 school +0.23	Samuel Gavula / Kiki Bruzzi 2.67 Jordan Bruce / Laurentiu Taritsa 3.28 5–2 Christopher Sharpless / Joshua Zeelander 3.16 5–2 Christopher Sharpless / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.17 0–3 Jordan Bruce / Joshua Zeelander 3.44 0–3	18%	5–5 (50%)	+3.2
6	Brown University Bears	5	10.85 school +0.18	Olivia Belda / Hunter Zonnenberg 3.49 3–2 Jack Murphy / Emma Montgomery 3.59 3–2 Connor Nelson / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.60 3–2 Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.51 1–4 Jack Murphy / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.58 1–4 Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.55 1–4	55%	4–6 (40%)	−1.5
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	11.32 school +0.36	Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.80 Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.68 Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.43 3–3 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.58 1–2	66%	4–5 (44%)	−1.9
8	George Washington University Colonials	7	9.84 school +0.10	Cameron Feves / Abbie Chipps 3.29 0–5 Michael Ehnot / Jack Umina 3.26 0–4 Matt Logue / Kaleigh Morgan 3.21 0–3 Cameron Feves / Kaleigh Morgan 3.23 0–2 Matt Logue / Matthew Priebe 3.27 0–2 Michael Ehnot / Kaleigh Morgan 3.20 0–2 Matt Logue / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.23 0–2 Michael Ehnot / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.23 0–1	28%	0–7 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	University of Pennsylvania	9.43	11.05	5–5	1.8	+1.62	4.1	2%
1	Yale University	12.05	13.19	9–1	7.5	+1.14	1.1	24%
4	Georgetown University	10.39	10.89	5–6	3.9	+0.50	0.4	32%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	11.04	11.03	6–5	6.0	−0.02	0.0	64%
2	Stanford University	11.50	11.28	6–4	6.4	−0.22	0.1	75%
6	Brown University	10.85	10.11	4–6	5.5	−0.73	0.8	92%
7	Roger Williams University	11.32	10.30	4–5	5.9	−1.02	1.4	96%
8	George Washington University	9.84	6.84	0–7	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.67	4.29	5–5	1.8	+1.62	4.1	2%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.81	3.79	6–5	6.0	−0.02	0.0	64%
Thomas Mccann	Georgetown University	2.79	2.74	2–5	2.1	−0.04	0.0	67%
Olivia Belda	Brown University	3.49	2.76	4–6	5.5	−0.73	0.8	92%
Jack Reiter	Georgetown University	3.82	3.08	4–6	5.5	−0.73	0.8	92%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.80	2.78	4–5	5.9	−1.02	1.4	96%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.43	2.41	4–5	5.9	−1.02	1.4	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
3	69	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	70%
4	57	University of Pennsylvania	Brown University	19%	upset
4	63	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
4	64	Yale University	Georgetown University	76%
4	65	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	30%	upset
4	66	Yale University	Stanford University	63%
4	67	Stanford University	Georgetown University	80%
4	68	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
5	60	Roger Williams University	Brown University	60%
5	61	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	81%
5	62	University of Pennsylvania	Roger Williams University	13%	upset
8	1	Georgetown University	George Washington University	54%
8	2	Brown University	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
8	3	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	82%
8	6	Stanford University	Georgetown University	81%
8	7	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	87%
8	8	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	52%
8	11	Yale University	Roger Williams University	68%
8	12	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	38%	upset
8	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	71%
8	16	Brown University	Stanford University	35%	upset
8	17	Brown University	George Washington University	73%
8	18	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
8	21	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
8	22	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	52%
8	23	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
8	26	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
8	27	Stanford University	George Washington University	84%
8	28	Georgetown University	Brown University	53%
8	31	Yale University	George Washington University	90%
8	32	Yale University	Brown University	77%
8	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
8	36	University of Pennsylvania	Brown University	19%	upset
8	37	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	79%
8	38	Yale University	Stanford University	63%
8	41	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	76%
8	42	University of Pennsylvania	Stanford University	11%	upset
8	43	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	83%
8	46	Georgetown University	Yale University	24%	upset

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas
	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–0	✕	W
	Georgetown University Hoyas	0–1	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Quakers	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	L	✕	W	W	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	0–3	L	L	✕	L	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	L	L	W	✕	–	–
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W
Brown University Bears	0–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Quakers	Bears	Hawks
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–1	✕	L	W
Brown University Bears	1–1	W	✕	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–1	L	W	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Quakers	Bears	Hawks	Colonials	Cougars	Seahawks	Rams	Wave	Statesmen	Monarchs	Privateers	Mariners
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
George Washington University Colonials	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	5–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 13

	Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Monarchs
	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–0	✕	W
	Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–1	L	✕

Round 15

	Team	Rec.	Privateers	Mariners
	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–0	✕	W
	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
69	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
57	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
63	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
65	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
66	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
67	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
68	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
60	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
61	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
62	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
1	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
2	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
4	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
5	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
7	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
8	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
10	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
12	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
13	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
14	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
16	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
17	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
18	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
19	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
20	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
23	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
24	Rams	3-4-5	def.	Green Wave	1-2-6 DSQ
25	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
28	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
29	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
30	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
32	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
34	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
35	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
36	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
39	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
40	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
41	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
42	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
43	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
44	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
45	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
46	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
47	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
48	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
49	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
50	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
51	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
52	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
53	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
54	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
55	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
56	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
59	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
58	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Sam Tobin '23 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Nathan Sih '25 Anisha Arcot '23 Benjamin Markert '23
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Wiley Rogers '22	Sammy Pickell '22 Patricia Gerli '23 Anaclare Sole '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gavin Mcjones '23 Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 Olivia De Olazarra '22	Ryan Wahba '25 Colin Macgillivray '23 Kimmie Leonard '22 Jonah Hatt '23 Fiona Lobon '22
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Reiter '22 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25 Scott Mais '23 Thomas Mccann '22	Jack Hogan '22 Annabelle Ayer '22 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Addi Harris '24
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Joshua Zeelander '24 Laurentiu Taritsa '23 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Jack Murphy '22 Olivia Belda '22	Julia Reynolds '22 Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Emma Montgomery '22 Hunter Zonnenberg '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Hank Bailey '24 Molly Matthews '23 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
George Washington University	Colonials	Cameron Feves '22 Matt Logue '22 Michael Ehnot '22	Kaleigh Morgan '24 Abbie Chipps '25 Matthew Priebe '22 Ana Carrasco Solla '22 Jack Umina '22

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1007.9 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 59°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 29.4 kn

From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1007.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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