Jan T. Friis Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/26/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–5
2	Harvard University	Crimson	13–6
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–7
4	Brown University	Bears	12–7
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–6
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–9
7	Connecticut College	Camels	7–9
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	3–13
9	University of Rhode Island	Rams	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 79 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.475 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.95 school +0.29	Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.75 Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.14 11–3 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.72 10–2 Jack Egan / Benjamin Markert 3.79 4–3 Shawn Harvey / Nathan Sih 4.17 3–2	85%	14–5 (74%)	−2.2
2	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.34 school +0.15	Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.39 Dylan Ascencios / Tyler Masuyama 3.07 10–1 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.68 10–1 Emma Kaneti / Tyler Masuyama 3.14 3–5 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee 3.69 3–5	52%	13–6 (68%)	+3.1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	10.50 school +0.14	Robert Bragg / Eloise Burn 3.66 6–5 James Paul / Reese Bragg 2.91 6–5 Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.75 6–5 Robert Bragg / Christopher Long 3.55 6–2 Maddie Hawkins / Ryan Goldstein 3.68 6–2 William Michels / Drew Clutterbuck 3.11 6–0 James Paul / Drew Clutterbuck 2.96 0–2	56%	12–7 (63%)	+1.3
4	Brown University Bears	3	10.52 school +0.20	Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.41 Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.39 8–7 Jack Murphy / Madeleine Montagner 3.52 8–7 Olivia Belda / William George 3.40 4–0 Jack Murphy / Emma Montgomery 3.47 4–0	56%	12–7 (63%)	+1.3
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.81 school +0.38, home +0.32	Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.66 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.47 Riley Read / Emily Gildea 2.97	66%	10–6 (62%)	−0.6
6	Tufts University Jumbos	5	10.09 school +0.14	Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.39 Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.22 6–6 Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.39 5–3 Alex Fasolo / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.19 2–3 Ansgar Jordan / William Eykyn 3.24 2–3 Ansgar Jordan / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.32 1–3	53%	8–9 (47%)	−1.0
7	Connecticut College Camels	7	9.72 school +0.41	Walter Henry / Katherine Wetzel 3.04 4–8 Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 3.33 3–7 Cj Mckenna / Liam Gronda 3.30 4–3 Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.17 2–4 Thomas Whittemore / Jean-Michel Bus 3.15 2–4 William Bedford / Jean-Michel Bus 2.49 3–2 Walter Henry / Alexandra Tillinghast 2.94 3–2	43%	7–10 (41%)	−0.4
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	8.66 school +0.21	Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.11 3–11 Thomas Hall / Cj Ricci 2.79 3–9 Thibault Antonietti / John Seider 2.45 1–9 Thibault Antonietti / Hattie Slayton 2.56 2–2 Thomas Hall / Hattie Slayton 2.94 0–4 Sam Bonauto / John Seider 3.08 0–2 Thibault Antonietti / Timmy Gee 2.53 0–2	23%	3–13 (19%)	−0.6
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	9	7.09 school −0.22	Ben Rosenberg / Elizabeth Taylor 2.81 Meghan Haviland / Miles Bailey 2.08 Zachary Champney / Rowan Woods 2.37 0–10 Zachary Champney / Katie Coughlin 2.36 0–6	6%	0–16 (0%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Harvard University	10.34	11.20	13–6	9.9	+0.87	1.9	9%
3	Dartmouth College	10.50	10.87	12–7	10.7	+0.37	0.3	33%
4	Brown University	10.52	10.88	12–7	10.7	+0.36	0.3	34%
7	Connecticut College	9.72	9.60	7–10	7.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
5	Roger Williams University	10.81	10.61	10–6	10.6	−0.20	0.1	75%
6	Tufts University	10.09	9.77	8–9	9.0	−0.32	0.2	80%
8	Bowdoin College	8.66	8.31	3–13	3.6	−0.35	0.1	79%
1	Yale University	11.95	11.16	14–5	16.2	−0.78	1.3	96%
9	University of Rhode Island	7.09	4.09	0–16	0.9	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	3.07	5.94	10–1	5.9	+2.87	7.5	<1%
Olivia Belda	Brown University	3.39	3.75	12–7	10.7	+0.36	0.3	34%
William Bedford	Connecticut College	2.49	2.85	3–2	2.7	+0.36	0.1	57%
James Paul	Dartmouth College	2.91	2.99	6–7	5.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	3.04	2.92	7–10	7.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.66	3.45	10–6	10.6	−0.20	0.1	75%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.47	3.27	10–6	10.6	−0.20	0.1	75%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.17	2.87	4–8	4.7	−0.30	0.1	78%
Alex Fasolo	Tufts University	3.22	2.90	8–9	9.0	−0.32	0.2	80%
Ansgar Jordan	Tufts University	3.39	3.07	8–9	9.0	−0.32	0.2	80%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.45	2.10	3–13	3.6	−0.35	0.1	79%
Ben Rosenberg	University of Rhode Island	2.81	-0.19	0–16	0.9	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%
Zachary Champney	University of Rhode Island	2.37	-0.63	0–16	0.9	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	52%
1	2	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	70%
1	3	Tufts University	Brown University	41%	upset
1	4	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	5	Yale University	Dartmouth College	81%
1	6	Connecticut College	Harvard University	40%	upset
1	7	Brown University	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	8	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	81%
1	9	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	99%
1	10	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	63%
1	11	Brown University	Harvard University	54%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	90%
1	13	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	14	Yale University	Connecticut College	88%
1	15	Brown University	Dartmouth College	51%
1	16	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	85%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	98%
1	18	Yale University	Tufts University	85%
1	19	Brown University	Connecticut College	64%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	86%
1	21	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	22	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
1	23	Yale University	Brown University	80%
1	24	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	21%	upset
1	25	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	97%
1	26	Harvard University	Tufts University	55%
1	27	Roger Williams University	Yale University	24%	upset
1	28	Brown University	Bowdoin College	85%
1	29	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	30	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	63%
1	31	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
1	32	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
1	33	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	97%
1	34	Tufts University	Connecticut College	69%
1	35	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	61%
1	36	Yale University	Harvard University	85%
2	37	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	61%
2	38	Harvard University	Brown University	46%	upset
2	39	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	81%
2	40	Connecticut College	Yale University	12%	upset
2	41	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	97%
2	42	Brown University	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
2	43	Harvard University	Tufts University	55%
2	44	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
2	45	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	89%
2	46	Dartmouth College	Brown University	50%	upset
2	47	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	67%
2	48	Harvard University	Yale University	15%	upset
2	49	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	79%
2	50	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	63%
2	51	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	97%
2	52	Yale University	Roger Williams University	76%
2	53	Connecticut College	Harvard University	40%	upset
2	54	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	83%
2	55	Brown University	Tufts University	59%
2	56	Dartmouth College	Yale University	20%	upset
2	57	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	70%
2	58	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	84%
2	59	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	95%
2	60	Yale University	Brown University	80%
2	61	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	64%
2	62	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	90%
2	63	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	96%
2	64	Yale University	Tufts University	85%
2	65	Brown University	Connecticut College	64%
2	66	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	86%
2	67	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	38%	upset
2	68	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	99%
2	69	Connecticut College	Tufts University	31%	upset
2	70	Brown University	Bowdoin College	85%
2	71	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
2	72	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	98%
2	73	Tufts University	Connecticut College	69%
4	74	Dartmouth College	Brown University	50%
4	75	Harvard University	Yale University	15%	upset
4	76	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
4	77	Yale University	Brown University	80%
4	78	Brown University	Harvard University	54%
4	79	Yale University	Dartmouth College	79%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Green	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Camels	Bears	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–4	L	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–3	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–6	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Green	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Camels	Bears	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	5–3	✕	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–2	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	5–4	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Green	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	✕	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	W	✕	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
2	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
6	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
7	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
8	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
10	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
11	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
14	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
15	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
16	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
20	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
21	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
23	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
24	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
25	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
26	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
27	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
29	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
30	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
31	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
34	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
35	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
36	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
37	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
38	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
39	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
40	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
41	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
42	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
43	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
45	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
46	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
48	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
49	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
50	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
52	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
53	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
54	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
55	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
56	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
57	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
59	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
60	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
61	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
62	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
63	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
66	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
67	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
68	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
69	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
70	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
71	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
72	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
73	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
74	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
75	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
76	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
78	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
79	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Benjamin Markert '23 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Nathan Sih '25 Anisha Arcot '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Emma Kaneti '22 Henry Burnes '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Tyler Masuyama '23 Christopher Wang '23 Cassia Lee '23 Alexandra Dorofeev '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Reese Bragg '25 Drew Clutterbuck '23 Aisling Sullivan '22 Ryan Goldstein '22 Eloise Burn '21 Christopher Long '23
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Jack Murphy '22 Olivia Belda '22	Julia Reynolds '22 Madeleine Montagner '22 Emma Montgomery '22 William George '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Riley Read '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Molly Matthews '23 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22	George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Amelia Carlson '24 William Eykyn '25 Ann Sheridan '22 Celia Byrne '24
Connecticut College	Camels	Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23 Walter Henry '23 William Bedford '23	Cecilia Bohan '24 Liam Gronda '25 Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Jean-Michel Bus '22 Katherine Wetzel '23
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Sam Bonauto '25 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Timmy Gee '25 John Seider '22 Hattie Slayton '23 Cj Ricci '24
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Ben Rosenberg '23 Meghan Haviland '22 Zachary Champney '22	Elizabeth Taylor '24 Miles Bailey '25 Rowan Woods '23 Katie Coughlin '24

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 65% · Pressure 996.4 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.5 kn

avg · max 13.0 kn

Gusts to 20.0 kn

From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure996.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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