Harvard University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.85 (fleet 3.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 81–54 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 5 | 48–33 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 26–8 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (135 matches) the record is 81–54 against 79.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.10 | 2.88 | 7–9 | 7.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.97 | 3.18 | 11–10 | 10.2 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2022-03-26 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 2.63 | 3–5 | 4.0 | −0.51 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2022-03-19 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 3.28 | 2.80 | 13–5 | 14.3 | −0.47 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2022-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.12 | 4.02 | 14–4 | 11.4 | +0.90 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.94 | 4.24 | 11–2 | 8.3 | +1.29 | 2.3 | 8% |
| 2020-02-29 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 3.74 | 15–6 | 12.2 | +0.80 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.91 | 1.58 | 7–13 | 11.4 | −1.33 | 4.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 4.74 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.1 | 4.34 |
| College Sailing Open Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 2.94 |
| College Sailing Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 3.26 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 52% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 3.46 |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.0 | 3.46 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | 4.36 |
| Coed ACC's Round 1A | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.3 | 3.66 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.9 | 4.57 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 3.55 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 4.53 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.2 | 4.61 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 3.83 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | 2.42 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 3.72 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | 4.22 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 4.20 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.9 | 2.81 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 35% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 3.87 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.2 | 4.47 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.4 | 3.79 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.0 | 4.09 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.7 | 3.06 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.0 | 3.85 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 3.13 |
| 2019 HSTAR | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 3.06 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 3.76 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 4.78 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.0 | 2.91 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.8 | 3.37 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 3.29 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.3 | 2.52 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 2.87 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Emma Kaneti |  Mamaroneck High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
