Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date02/29/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	19–2
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	17–4
3	Harvard University	Crimson	15–6
4	Boston University	Terriers	10–11
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	11–10
6	Jacksonville University	Fins	11–10
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–14
8	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–16
9	Eckerd College	Tritons	4–14
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 85 of 104 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.446 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.20: an orderly event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.54 school +0.53	Jack Brown / Oliver Parsons 3.67 Alie Toppa / Jack Sutton 3.62 Steven Leuck / Katherine Lounsbury 3.67	85%	19–2 (90%)	+1.2
2	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.18 school +0.20	Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.92 Teddy Nicolosi / Sonia Lingos-Utley 13–3 Christine Klingler / Claudia Loiacono 3.47 11–3 Christine Klingler / Catherine Webb 3.63 6–1 Teddy Nicolosi / Claudia Loiacono 4–1	79%	17–4 (81%)	+0.4
3	Harvard University Crimson	3	10.10 school −0.06	Eli Burnes / Eric Hansen 3.67 Henry Burnes / Emily Wang 3.50 Emma Kaneti / Emma Jakobson 2.94	58%	15–6 (71%)	+2.8
4	Boston University Terriers	5	9.97 school −0.09	Casey Cabot / Grace Mooradian 3.07 Sam Morrell / Katherine Bertolini 3.42 Maia Agerup / Catherine Shakin 3.51	55%	10–12 (45%)	−2.1
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4	9.71	Lucas Pierce / Mary Toomey 3.08 David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.08 Quinn Wilson / Elizabeth Moody 3.48	55%	11–10 (52%)	−0.6
6	Jacksonville University Fins	6	9.59 school +0.20	Andre Guaragna / Mia Porter 2.99 Jack Gower / Madison Reynolds 2.79 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Chris Kiener 3.54	52%	12–10 (55%)	+0.6
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	8.73 school +0.34	Gray Benson / Sean Linden 2.82 Nicholas Gartner / Carlyn Blauvelt 2.97 Gavin Mcjones / Elizabeth Linsdell	34%	7–14 (33%)	−0.0
8	Tulane University Green Wave	8	8.46	William Keenan / Caroline Benson 2.15 Cameron Giblin / Kit Stoll 3.36 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Stephen Hahn 2.75	29%	6–16 (27%)	−0.3
9	Eckerd College Tritons	10	8.18 school +0.13	Connor Ratcliff / Camryn Kennedy 2.52 Daniel Vail / Liam Farese 2.70 Ian Willoughby / Jackie Morrison 2.79	23%	4–15 (21%)	−0.4
10	University of South Florida Bulls	9	8.34 school +0.33	Christian Koules / John Monahan 2.33 Kathryn Bornarth / Chloe Sweeting 2.60 Marina Barzaghi / Carolina Perez Rovira 3.03	25%	3–15 (17%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Harvard University	10.10	10.90	15–6	12.2	+0.80	1.6	11%
1	College of Charleston	11.54	12.12	19–2	17.8	+0.58	0.5	35%
2	Yale University	11.18	11.33	17–4	16.6	+0.15	0.0	54%
6	Jacksonville University	9.59	9.72	12–10	11.4	+0.14	0.1	49%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	8.73	8.72	7–14	7.0	−0.01	0.0	60%
8	Tulane University	8.46	8.38	6–16	6.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
9	Eckerd College	8.18	8.03	4–15	4.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.71	9.55	11–10	11.6	−0.15	0.1	72%
4	Boston University	9.97	9.46	10–12	12.1	−0.51	0.8	90%
10	University of South Florida	8.34	7.75	3–15	4.5	−0.59	0.6	89%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.67	4.48	15–6	12.2	+0.80	1.6	11%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.67	4.25	19–2	17.8	+0.58	0.5	35%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.62	4.20	19–2	17.8	+0.58	0.5	35%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.99	3.13	12–10	11.4	+0.14	0.1	49%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.54	3.68	12–10	11.4	+0.14	0.1	49%
William Keenan	Tulane University	2.15	2.07	6–16	6.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	2.75	2.67	6–16	6.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
Connor Ratcliff	Eckerd College	2.52	2.37	4–15	4.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
Ian Willoughby	Eckerd College	2.79	2.64	4–15	4.4	−0.15	0.0	70%
Quinn Wilson	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.48	3.33	11–10	11.6	−0.15	0.1	72%
Christian Koules	University of South Florida	2.33	1.74	3–15	4.5	−0.59	0.6	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	2	Tulane University	Eckerd College	54%
1	3	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	86%
1	4	Boston University	University of South Florida	84%
1	5	Yale University	Jacksonville University	86%
1	6	Harvard University	Eckerd College	87%
1	7	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	8	Boston University	Tulane University	83%
1	9	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	82%
1	10	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	77%
1	11	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
1	12	Harvard University	Boston University	54%
1	13	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	93%
1	14	Tulane University	University of South Florida	51%
1	15	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	47%	upset
1	16	College of Charleston	Boston University	83%
1	17	Yale University	Eckerd College	95%
1	18	Harvard University	University of South Florida	85%
1	19	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	20	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	76%
1	21	Boston University	Yale University	23%	upset
1	22	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	96%
1	23	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	82%
1	24	Harvard University	Tulane University	84%
1	25	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
1	26	Yale University	University of South Florida	94%
1	27	Boston University	University of California at Santa Barbara	56%
1	28	College of Charleston	Tulane University	96%
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	62%
1	30	Jacksonville University	Harvard University	37%	upset
1	31	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	80%
1	32	Yale University	Tulane University	94%
1	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston University	22%	upset
1	34	Harvard University	College of Charleston	19%	upset
1	35	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	80%
1	36	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	78%
1	37	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	59%
1	38	Harvard University	Yale University	26%	upset
1	39	Eckerd College	Boston University	14%	upset
1	40	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	88%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	57%
1	42	Harvard University	University of California at Santa Barbara	60%
1	43	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	54%
1	44	College of Charleston	Yale University	59%
1	45	Jacksonville University	Boston University	41%	upset
2	48	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	21%	upset
2	49	Eckerd College	Tulane University	43%	upset
2	50	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	86%
2	51	Boston University	University of South Florida	83%
2	52	Yale University	Jacksonville University	85%
2	53	Harvard University	Eckerd College	87%
2	54	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	55	Boston University	Tulane University	82%
2	56	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	81%
2	57	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	78%
2	58	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
2	59	Harvard University	Boston University	53%
2	60	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
2	61	Tulane University	University of South Florida	53%
2	62	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	53%
2	63	College of Charleston	Boston University	83%
2	64	Yale University	Eckerd College	95%
2	65	Harvard University	University of South Florida	85%
2	66	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
2	67	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	75%
2	68	Yale University	Boston University	77%
2	69	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	96%
2	70	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	82%
2	71	Harvard University	Tulane University	83%
2	72	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	31%	upset
2	73	Yale University	University of South Florida	94%
2	74	Boston University	University of California at Santa Barbara	56%
2	75	College of Charleston	Tulane University	95%
2	76	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
2	77	Harvard University	Jacksonville University	62%
2	78	University of South Florida	University of California at Santa Barbara	21%	upset
2	79	Yale University	Tulane University	93%
2	80	Boston University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
2	81	College of Charleston	Harvard University	81%
2	82	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	80%
2	83	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	77%
2	84	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	38%	upset
2	85	Yale University	Harvard University	74%
2	86	Boston University	Eckerd College	86%
2	87	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	87%
2	88	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	42%	upset
2	89	Harvard University	University of California at Santa Barbara	60%
2	90	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	46%	upset
2	91	Yale University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
2	92	Boston University	Jacksonville University	59%
4	47	Jacksonville University	Boston University	41%	upset
4	93	Yale University	Harvard University	74%
4	94	College of Charleston	Boston University	83%
4	95	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Naval Academy	70%
4	96	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	26%	upset
4	97	Yale University	Boston University	76%
4	98	College of Charleston	Harvard University	81%
4	99	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	77%
4	100	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
4	101	Harvard University	Boston University	53%
4	102	College of Charleston	Yale University	60%
4	103	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	58%
4	104	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	53%
8	46	Tulane University	Eckerd College	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Crimson	Terriers	Gauchos	Fins	Midshipmen	Wave	Tritons	Bulls
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–1	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–5	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	7–2	L	L	W	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of South Florida Bulls	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Crimson	Terriers	Gauchos	Fins	Midshipmen	Wave	Tritons	Bulls
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Jacksonville University Fins	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–7	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L	L	L
Tulane University Green Wave	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Crimson	Terriers	Gauchos	Fins	Midshipmen	Wave
College of Charleston Cougars	3–0	✕	W	W	W	–	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	1–2	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Boston University Terriers	0–4	L	L	L	✕	–	L	–	–
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–2	–	–	–	W	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	✕

Round 8

	Team	Rec.	Wave	Tritons
	Tulane University Green Wave	1–0	✕	W
	Eckerd College Tritons	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
2	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
3	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
4	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
5	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
7	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
8	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
10	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
12	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
14	Green Wave	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
15	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
18	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
19	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
20	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
21	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
23	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
24	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
25	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
27	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
28	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
30	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
31	Gauchos	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
34	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
35	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
36	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
38	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
39	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
40	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
42	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
43	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
45	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
48	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
49	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
50	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
51	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
52	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
53	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
54	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
55	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
56	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
57	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
58	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
59	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
61	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
62	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
63	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
65	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
66	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
67	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
69	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
70	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
71	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
72	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Fins	1-4-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
74	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
75	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
76	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
77	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
78	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
80	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
81	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
82	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
83	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
84	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
85	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
86	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
87	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
88	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
89	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
90	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
91	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
92	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
47	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
93	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
94	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
95	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
96	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
97	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
98	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
99	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
100	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
101	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
102	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
103	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
104	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
46	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Jack Sutton '22 Oliver Parsons '21 Katherine Lounsbury '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christine Klingler '20 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Claudia Loiacono '21 Catherine Webb '23 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Emma Kaneti '22 Henry Burnes '22	Eric Hansen '23 Emma Jakobson '21 Emily Wang '21
Boston University	Terriers	Casey Cabot '21 Maia Agerup '20 Sam Morrell '21	Grace Mooradian '21 Catherine Shakin '23 Katherine Bertolini '21
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	David Eastwood '22 Lucas Pierce '21 Quinn Wilson '21	Tristan Richmond '22 Mary Toomey '22 Elizabeth Moody '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Jack Gower '20	Chris Kiener '21 Mia Porter '22 Madison Reynolds '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gavin Mcjones '23 Gray Benson '22 Nicholas Gartner '20	Elizabeth Linsdell '23 Sean Linden '21 Carlyn Blauvelt '23
Tulane University	Green Wave	Cameron Giblin '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 William Keenan '23	Kit Stoll '23 Stephen Hahn '20 Caroline Benson '23
Eckerd College	Tritons	Connor Ratcliff '21 Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21	Camryn Kennedy '21 Liam Farese '22 Jackie Morrison '23
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christian Koules '21 Kathryn Bornarth '21 Marina Barzaghi '21	John Monahan '20 Chloe Sweeting '22 Carolina Perez Rovira '22

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.8 kn

avg · max 16.1 kn

Gusts to 28.8 kn

From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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