Boston University '21
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.87 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 10 | Fall 2014 |
| Keelboat | 1.51 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 12 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.62 (fleet 3.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 63–50 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–12 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 29–17 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 15–9 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 3–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 63–50 against 69.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.07 | 2.57 | 10–12 | 12.1 | −0.51 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.93 | 3.79 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +0.86 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.96 | 2.17 | 7–6 | 9.1 | −0.79 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 0.88 | 2–5 | 4.6 | −2.19 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2019-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 4.83 | 10–2 | 7.0 | +1.94 | 4.0 | 2% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.95 | 3.05 | 10–4 | 9.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 2.11 | 8–7 | 9.1 | −0.34 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 1.50 | 7–2 | 8.1 | −1.06 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.77 | 2.44 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 0.29 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.56 | 2.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 3.29 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.3 | 3.64 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.6 | 3.43 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.8 | 3.79 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 4.55 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 3.74 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.9 | 3.95 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 2.76 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 10.3 | 2.93 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.5 | 3.04 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.9 | 3.31 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 3.89 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | 3.33 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.7 | 2.32 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 2.67 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 2.74 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 3.10 |
| Richard Ross College Bowl 2017 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 2.32 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 7.3 | 2.79 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.8 | 2.48 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 3.38 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Bobby Berliner Trophy for Midweek Firefly Series | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.4 | 3.21 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Casey Cabot |  Edmund Burke School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
