Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies

HostYale
Date04/13/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Fordham University	Rams	38	31	69
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	36	47	83
3	Harvard University	Crimson	44	44	88
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	84	35	119
5	Boston University	Terriers	81	48	129
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	75	58	133
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	69	67	136
8	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	74	65	139
9	Tufts University	Tufts University	59	87	146
10	Connecticut College	Camels	66	82	148
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	85	82	167
12	Yale University	Elis	79	93	172
13	Connecticut College	Connecticut College	104	106	210
14	Cornell University	Big Red	106	107	213
15	Webb Institute	Clippers	89	142	231
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	135	141	276
17	Columbia University	Lions	158	140	298
18	Princeton University	Tigers	157	155	312

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Yale University	Bulldogs	1	2	1	2	1	12	1	3	13	36	Louisa Nordstrom '20 Claudia Loiacono '21
Fordham University	Rams	4	5	5	3	4	2	11	1	3	38	Roberto Stevens '19 Cortney Rielly '20
Harvard University	Crimson	8	1	3	6	3	8	3	6	6	44	Nicholas Karnovsky '19 Jessica Williams '20
Tufts University	Tufts University	3	3	11	4	16	4	10	7	1	59	Ansgar Jordan '22 Lindsay Powers '21
Connecticut College	Camels	14	4	6	16	2	3	4	13	4	66	Julia Leighton '20 Cecilia Moreira '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	10	8	14	1	6	11	2	8	9	69	Christian Filter '20 Marie Bergsund '20
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	12	6	4	7	9	5	13	4	14	74	Joseph Laforgia '21 Adam Hano '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams	2	12	13	13	12	7	9	2	5	75	Aidan Naughton '22 Taylor Borges '22
Yale University	Elis	5	16	10	8	10	1	5	12	12	79	Sam Tobin '23 [1-9] Meredith Ryan '23 [1-4] Mina Cezairli '21 [5-9]
Boston University	Terriers	15	7	12	10	8	9	8	5	7	81	Josh Dochoda '20 Shannon Macdonald '21
Tufts University	Jumbos	11	9	7	11	7	13	6	10	10	84	Jack Bitney '19 Maria Brush '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7	11	2	12	13	6	15	11	8	85	Liam Ballantyne '19 Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
Webb Institute	Clippers	13	10	9	14	5	15	7	14	2	89	Nick Chisari '20 Ben Hunt '21
Connecticut College	Connecticut College	6	13	15	9	11	16	14	9	11	104	William Bedford '23 [1-4] William O'Leary '22 [5-9] Jean-Michel Bus '22 [1-4]
Cornell University	Big Red	9	14	8	5	14	14	12	15	15	106	Alex Fowkes '20 Louisa Bjerke '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	16	15	16	15	15	10	16	16	16	135	Adam Krzeszowski '21 Amanda Yeam '22
Princeton University	Tigers	17	17	18	18	17	17	18	18	17	157	Charlie Flynn '20 [1-4] William Cowen-Breen '22 [5-9] Isabella Impalli '22 [1-6] Jack Nusbaum '22 [7-9]
Columbia University	Lions	18	18	17	17	18	18	17	17	18	158	Matthew Fairbanks '22 [1-3] Ryan Eppolito '20 [4-9] Zoe Chan '22 [1-3] Boaz Willis '22 [4-9]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Fordham University	Rams	1	1	1	6	9	3	2	2	6	31	Eduardo Mintzias '21 Brigid Murphy '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	7	9	3	3	1	6	1	4	1	35	Charlie Hibben '22 Sabina Van Mell '19
Harvard University	Crimson	12	3	5	11	2	1	5	1	4	44	Jonas Nelle '22 Iulianna Taritsa '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	4	2	2	7	4	11	9	6	2	47	Christine Klingler '20 Kira Woods '19
Boston University	Terriers	3	7	7	2	6	2	4	10	7	48	Casey Cabot '21 Erica Brown '21
University of Rhode Island	Rams	11	10	10	9	3	4	3	3	5	58	Christian Moffitt '21 Alyssa Hall '20
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	2	4	11	8	7	10	10	5	8	65	Tanner Probst '21 Meghan Perez '22
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5	8	9	1	8	5	15	13	3	67	Matt Safford '20 Julia Adams '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	9	5	12	4	10	8	11	8	15	82	Richie Gordon '21 Mary Tran '22
Connecticut College	Camels	13	12	8	5	5	12	7	11	BKD	82	Analucia Clarkson '22 Marion Lemay '20
Tufts University	Tufts University	10	6	6	13	12	9	12	9	10	87	Wells Drayton '21 Marisa Permatteo '19
Yale University	Elis	8	15	14	10	11	13	6	7	9	93	Christophe Chaumont '23 [1-3] Meredith Ryan '23 [4-9] Becca Rose '22 [1-3]
Connecticut College	Connecticut College	14	13	13	12	13	7	8	12	14	106	Harris Padegs '23 Simon Moreira '22
Cornell University	Big Red	6	11	4	14	18	14	13	16	11	107	Tom O'Shea '21 [1-9] Emily Hughes '21 [1-6] Jessie Stoller '21 [7-9]
Columbia University	Lions	17	14	15	16	14	17	17	18	12	140	David Treatman '20 [1-9] Meimei Cao '22 [1-3] Doga Ozesmi '20 [4-9]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	15	16	16	15	17	15	16	14	17	141	Samuel Parsons '21 Eddy Harris '22
Webb Institute	Clippers	16	17	17	18	16	16	14	15	13	142	Declan Gaylo '19 Max Pierce '20
Princeton University	Tigers	18	18	18	17	15	18	18	17	16	155	William Mandelbaum '22 [1-3] Elizabeth Bailey '21 [4-9] Shelby Kinch '22 [1-3]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Boston University Terriers	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8
Columbia University Lions	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7
Connecticut College Camels	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9
Connecticut College Connecticut College	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18
Cornell University Big Red	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2
Fordham University Rams	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11
Harvard University Crimson	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10
Princeton University Tigers	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13
University of Rhode Island Rams	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1
Tufts University Jumbos	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6
Tufts University Tufts University	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15
Webb Institute Clippers	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12
Yale University Bulldogs	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14
Yale University Elis	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Boston University Terriers	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8
Columbia University Lions	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7
Connecticut College Camels	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9
Connecticut College Connecticut College	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18
Cornell University Big Red	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2
Fordham University Rams	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11
Harvard University Crimson	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10
Princeton University Tigers	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13
University of Rhode Island Rams	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1
Tufts University Jumbos	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6
Tufts University Tufts University	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15
Webb Institute Clippers	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12
Yale University Bulldogs	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14
Yale University Elis	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston University	Josh Dochoda '20	Shannon Macdonald '21
Terriers	Casey Cabot '21	Erica Brown '21
Bowdoin College	Christian Filter '20	Marie Bergsund '20
Polar Bears	Matt Safford '20	Julia Adams '21
Columbia University	Matthew Fairbanks '22 [1-3] Ryan Eppolito '20 [4-9]	Zoe Chan '22 [1-3] Boaz Willis '22 [4-9]
Lions	David Treatman '20 [1-9]	Meimei Cao '22 [1-3] Doga Ozesmi '20 [4-9]
Connecticut College	Julia Leighton '20	Cecilia Moreira '20
Camels	Analucia Clarkson '22	Marion Lemay '20
Connecticut College	William Bedford '23 [1-4] William O'Leary '22 [5-9]	Jean-Michel Bus '22 [1-4]
Connecticut College	Harris Padegs '23	Simon Moreira '22
Cornell University	Alex Fowkes '20	Louisa Bjerke '22
Big Red	Tom O'Shea '21 [1-9]	Emily Hughes '21 [1-6] Jessie Stoller '21 [7-9]
Fordham University	Roberto Stevens '19	Cortney Rielly '20
Rams	Eduardo Mintzias '21	Brigid Murphy '20
Harvard University	Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Jessica Williams '20
Crimson	Jonas Nelle '22	Iulianna Taritsa '20
Princeton University	Charlie Flynn '20 [1-4] William Cowen-Breen '22 [5-9]	Isabella Impalli '22 [1-6] Jack Nusbaum '22 [7-9]
Tigers	William Mandelbaum '22 [1-3] Elizabeth Bailey '21 [4-9]	Shelby Kinch '22 [1-3]
Tufts University	Jack Bitney '19	Maria Brush '21
Jumbos	Charlie Hibben '22	Sabina Van Mell '19
Tufts University	Ansgar Jordan '22	Lindsay Powers '21
Tufts University	Wells Drayton '21	Marisa Permatteo '19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Liam Ballantyne '19	Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
Bears	Richie Gordon '21	Mary Tran '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Adam Krzeszowski '21	Amanda Yeam '22
Mariners	Samuel Parsons '21	Eddy Harris '22
University of Pennsylvania	Joseph Laforgia '21	Adam Hano '23
Quakers	Tanner Probst '21	Meghan Perez '22
University of Rhode Island	Aidan Naughton '22	Taylor Borges '22
Rams	Christian Moffitt '21	Alyssa Hall '20
Webb Institute	Nick Chisari '20	Ben Hunt '21
Clippers	Declan Gaylo '19	Max Pierce '20
Yale University	Louisa Nordstrom '20	Claudia Loiacono '21
Bulldogs	Christine Klingler '20	Kira Woods '19
Yale University	Sam Tobin '23 [1-9]	Meredith Ryan '23 [1-4] Mina Cezairli '21 [5-9]
Elis	Christophe Chaumont '23 [1-3] Meredith Ryan '23 [4-9]	Becca Rose '22 [1-3]

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 89% · Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 54°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.8 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 20.6 kn

From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine5.3 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1017.6 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn · SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Yale: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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