Tufts University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 8.11 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.085 rating points from 215 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 20–25 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 1–4 |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 10–8 |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | — | 3–5 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 6–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 20–25 against 19.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | crew | 2.41 | 0.53 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.10 | 2.77 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 3.18 | 2.62 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.56 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.34 | 0.97 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.37 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 2.28 | 3.36 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.97 | 3.33 | 6–8 | 5.1 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Crew | B | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Crew | B | 16 | 7.1 | — |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Crew | B | 7 | 5.4 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Alymers | Crew | B | 20 | 4.2 | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 9 | 9.7 | — |
| Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 7.0 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 4.9 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| Invite | Crew | A | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Ryan Richards Alumni Regatta | Crew | A, B | 5 | 11.8 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Crew | B | 6 | 4.5 | — |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Crew | B | 10 | 4.1 | — |
| Central 2 | Crew | B | 7 | 3.3 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 5 | 6.6 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 8.1 | — |
| Richard Ross College Bowl 2017 Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.6 | — |
| Protest | Crew | B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Crew | A | 4 | 12.5 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Fall Foliage | Crew | A | 3 | 4.3 | — |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Central Series 4 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.8 | — |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 4.7 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Central 3 | Crew | B | 6 | 7.7 | — |
| Alymers | Crew | B | 10 | 3.6 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Women's Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 3.3 | — |
| Stuart Walker Open | Crew | A | 8 | 3.5 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 11.9 | — |
| Protest | Crew | B | 8 | 3.5 | — |
| Professor Noringer | Crew | B | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | B | 11 | 10.2 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 13.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
