Protest

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 47
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 62
3 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 74
4 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 113
5 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 5 5 1 2 1 1 1 3 19 Aaron Klein '18
Nihal Pai '20
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 2 2 2 5 2 3 3 4 23 River Iannaccone '19
Autumn Becker '20
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 1 3 3 1 4 5 5 1 23 Matthew Moss-Hawkins '17 [1-8]
Madeline Bruno '17 [1-4]
Carter Goodell '19 [5-8]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 4 1 4 3 6 2 6 2 28 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marisa Permatteo '19
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 6 6 6 4 3 6 2 6 39 Daniel Lee '18
Kendolyn Roe '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 3 4 5 7 5 7 7 7 45 Alexie Lessing '19
Erich Wu '19
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 9 8 8 6 7 4 4 5 51 Ned Moreland '19 [1-4]
Amy Macdonald '18 [5-8]
Christina Fatica '20 [1-4]
Mary Ferguson '18 [5-8]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 7 10 7 9 8 8 9 10 68 Vick Xu '19
Stephany Fulton '20
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 10 9 9 8 10 10 8 8 72 Charles Zizza '17
Gregg Carrara '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 8 7 10 10 9 9 10 9 72 Shane Baker '17
Allison Fusaro '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11223344
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies44556677
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers22334455
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats55667788
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos33445566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats66778899
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies9910101122
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers7788991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1010112233
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos8899101011

Conditions — 10/09/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 97%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From N (9°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity97% Pressure1018.2 hPa Rain0.39 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bates: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bates by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Bates, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →