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Icebreaker Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 21 16 37
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 27 44 71
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 45 26 71
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 48 26 74
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 28 55 83
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 42 44 86
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 32 55 87
8 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 57 58 115
9 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 70 47 117
10 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 70 47 117
11 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 64 61 125
12 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 67 68 135
13 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 92 94 186
14 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 90 101 191
15 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 94 103 197
16 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 112 113 225
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 4 2 3 4 5 1 21 Bryan Trammell '23 [1-7]
Mallory Hood '22 [1-4]
Cecilia Adams '23 [5-7]
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 11 1 3 2 5 1 4 27 Severin Gramm '23
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 2 1 5 10 7 2 28 Joey Lark '21 [1-7]
Lucie Ford '20 [1-2]
Caroline King '21 [3-7]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 3 9 4 1 3 2 10 32 Evan Robison '21 [1-7]
Paige Tyler '22 [1-4]
Elena Gonick '20 [5-6]
Kristina Puzak '22 [7]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 4 5 15 7 1 4 6 42 Chloe Holder '23
Cali Salinas '23
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 12 7 5 4 6 6 5 45 Zachary Champney '22
Emilia Marino '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 5 DNS 10 8 2 3 3 48 Jed Bell '23
Justin Chiang '21
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 3 7 14 11 9 7 57 Madeline Pope '21
Ariana Smaldone '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 6 6 6 14 12 11 64 Morgan Termaat '23 [1-7]
Jack Denker '22 [1-4]
Julia Boll '21 [5-7]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 7 8 8 9 8 14 13 67 Alexander Runci '23
Hunter Jensen '21
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 8 11 11 11 9 11 9 70 Trevor Donovan '23
Mitzi Ellemers '22
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 14 10 13 10 7 8 8 70 Elliott Gear '21
Madeline Kerr '23
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers DNF 13 9 12 12 15 12 90 Nicholas Leshaw '22 [1-7]
Evelyn Lane '23 [1-4]
Molly Arndt '23 [5-6]
Maya Saterson '22 [7]
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 10 12 12 15 15 13 15 92 John Holt '22 [1-7]
Joseph Prendergast '20 [1-2]
Thomas Mone '20 [3-4]
Anna Wiatrowski '21 [5-7]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 13 DNS 14 13 13 10 14 94 Giles Ruck '21
Anastasia Mastrocola '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats DNS 14 16 16 16 DNF 16 112 Clayton Greig '22 [1-7]
Emily Zaleski '22 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Edwards '20 [3-4]
Martin Keene '23 [6-7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 1 1 1 1 4 6 16 Patrick Mulcahy '23
Dorothy Waskow '22
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 4 3 2 3 9 4 26 Kyle Nannig '21
Mackenzie Fraser '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 5 2 2 3 6 6 2 26 Zachary Jordan '21
Sirine Benali '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 8 9 10 2 1 11 44 Grant Adam '23 [1-7]
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 [1-2]
Nora Ong '23 [3-7]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 6 11 5 5 7 3 7 44 Elena Gonick '20 [1-2]
Madeline Simms '23 [3-7]
Julia Karcher '23 [1-2]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 9 7 4 7 5 2 13 47 Grace Gear '23
Kiley Roach '21
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 10 6 6 6 4 10 5 47 Noah Ferrarotto '20
Coline Gailleul '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 5 12 8 11 7 8 55 Wells Drayton '21 [1-2]
Niall Sheridan '23 [3-7]
Marisa Permatteo '19 [1-2]
Sara Morrison '23 [3-7]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 7 3 8 4 12 12 9 55 Lucie Ford '20 [1-2]
Pearl Lattanzi '23 [3-7]
Alexa Percell '20 [1-2]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8 9 7 11 9 11 3 58 George Higham '23
Callum Robbins '22
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 12 12 11 12 8 5 1 61 Ashley Arruda '24
Elizabeth Silva '20
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 68 Luke Quine '23
Alexander Nagle '23
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 14 14 15 13 13 13 12 94 Jesus Esgueva '21 [1-7]
Anna Wiatrowski '21 [1-2]
Victoria Kyle '20 [3-4]
Joseph Prendergast '20 [5-7]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 13 14 16 15 15 15 101 Anna Spiro '21 [1-2]
Evelyn Lane '23 [3-7]
Allie White '21 [1-2]
Maya Saterson '22 [3-4]
Kaja Aagaard '22 [5-7]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags DNS DNS 13 14 14 14 14 103 Jillian Casey '22
Lilliana Delmonico '20
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats DNS DNS 16 15 16 16 16 113 Benjamin Nadeau '22 [1-7]
Caroline Edwards '20 [1-2]
Madysen Delosh '22 [3-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11133557
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2221818161614
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags33557710
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds4422181816
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers5577101022
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats14141111996
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies66442218
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams15151717113
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks771010222215
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks9966442
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 110101212151517
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2111199664
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31212151517171
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 11616141411119
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 2171711335
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards18181616141411

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 12244666
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2111717151515
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags4466999
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds3311171717
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers6699111111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats12121010777
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies5533111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161818222
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks991111141414
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks7755333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 111111414161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2101077555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 314141616181818
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 115152222101010
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 2181822444
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards17171515222222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University Jed Bell '23 Justin Chiang '21
Bears 1 Zachary Jordan '21 Sirine Benali '23
Brown University Brown University Severin Gramm '23 Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Bears 2 Grant Adam '23 [1-7] Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 [1-2]
Nora Ong '23 [3-7]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Giles Ruck '21 Anastasia Mastrocola '23
Stags Jillian Casey '22 Lilliana Delmonico '20
McGill University McGill University Trevor Donovan '23 Mitzi Ellemers '22
Redbirds Noah Ferrarotto '20 Coline Gailleul '22
Middlebury College Middlebury College Nicholas Leshaw '22 [1-7] Evelyn Lane '23 [1-4]
Molly Arndt '23 [5-6]
Maya Saterson '22 [7]
Panthers Anna Spiro '21 [1-2]
Evelyn Lane '23 [3-7]		 Allie White '21 [1-2]
Maya Saterson '22 [3-4]
Kaja Aagaard '22 [5-7]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Morgan Termaat '23 [1-7] Jack Denker '22 [1-4]
Julia Boll '21 [5-7]
Huskies Ashley Arruda '24 Elizabeth Silva '20
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Madeline Pope '21 Ariana Smaldone '20
Hawks George Higham '23 Callum Robbins '22
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Joey Lark '21 [1-7] Lucie Ford '20 [1-2]
Caroline King '21 [3-7]
Seahawks Lucie Ford '20 [1-2]
Pearl Lattanzi '23 [3-7]		 Alexa Percell '20 [1-2]
Tufts University Tufts University Evan Robison '21 [1-7] Paige Tyler '22 [1-4]
Elena Gonick '20 [5-6]
Kristina Puzak '22 [7]
Jumbos 1 Wells Drayton '21 [1-2]
Niall Sheridan '23 [3-7]		 Marisa Permatteo '19 [1-2]
Sara Morrison '23 [3-7]
Tufts University Tufts University Bryan Trammell '23 [1-7] Mallory Hood '22 [1-4]
Cecilia Adams '23 [5-7]
Jumbos 2 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University Tufts University Chloe Holder '23 Cali Salinas '23
Jumbos 3 Elena Gonick '20 [1-2]
Madeline Simms '23 [3-7]		 Julia Karcher '23 [1-2]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Clayton Greig '22 [1-7] Emily Zaleski '22 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Edwards '20 [3-4]
Martin Keene '23 [6-7]
Wildcats Benjamin Nadeau '22 [1-7] Caroline Edwards '20 [1-2]
Madysen Delosh '22 [3-7]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Zachary Champney '22 Emilia Marino '22
Rams Kyle Nannig '21 Mackenzie Fraser '23
University of Vermont University of Vermont Elliott Gear '21 Madeline Kerr '23
Catamounts 1 Grace Gear '23 Kiley Roach '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Alexander Runci '23 Hunter Jensen '21
Catamounts 2 Luke Quine '23 Alexander Nagle '23
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology John Holt '22 [1-7] Joseph Prendergast '20 [1-2]
Thomas Mone '20 [3-4]
Anna Wiatrowski '21 [5-7]
Leopards Jesus Esgueva '21 [1-7] Anna Wiatrowski '21 [1-2]
Victoria Kyle '20 [3-4]
Joseph Prendergast '20 [5-7]

Conditions — 03/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 30%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 41°F   ↓ 29°F
Feels like 24°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.8 kn
avg  ·  max 15.0 kn
Gusts to 31.1 kn
From NNW (342°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity30% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 15 kn · W 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →