University of Vermont '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 (fleet 2.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–17 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 6–16 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-11 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.72 | 2.29 | 3–3 | 2.2 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2022-03-26 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 1.41 | 0.64 | 3–13 | 4.4 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| O'Toole Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 2.19 |
| McMerrick Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.2 | 1.12 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 2.93 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.57 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.8 | 3.53 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.7 | 2.42 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.6 | 1.20 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.6 | 2.25 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 2.40 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 1.88 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.7 | 0.90 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Luke Quine |  Manchester/Essex RHS |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
