Mt. Hope Bay Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 9 19 28
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 15 18 33
3 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 23 22 45
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 27 19 46
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 21 39 60
6 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 25 38 63
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 35 31 66
8 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 36 33 69
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 53 20 73
10 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 46 36 82
11 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 51 58 109
12 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 55 63 118
13 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 60 59 119
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 1 1 4 2 9 Oliver Stokke '26
Claire Buckley '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 4 3 3 2 3 15 Jack Derry '25
Mia Quinlan '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 2 4 3 5 21 Grant Adam '23
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5 8 2 1 7 23 Ryan Potter '24
Alex Forrest '26
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 4 5 9 4 25 Emil Tullberg '25
Shannon Gondoly '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 2 5 DSQ 5 1 27 Kyle Pfrang '26
Ethan Snyder '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 7 8 8 6 35 Olin Guck '26
Brigette Alves '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 9 6 6 7 8 36 Luke Zylinski '26
Sarah Krajewski '26
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 11 9 7 6 13 46 James Knowlton '25
Nora Dockter '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 8 11 10 10 12 51 Kate Myler '23
Ozel Yilmazel '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 10 10 12 12 9 53 Drew Mastovsky '26
Ruby Hope '25
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 12 12 9 11 11 55 Jack Sullivan '23 [1-5]
Andrew Graham '24 [1-2, 5]
Nicole Kach '24 [3-4]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 13 11 13 10 60 Patrick Stevenson '23
Sarah Levin '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 2 1 5 4 6 18 Bradley Whiteway '26
Charlie Pohl '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 3 7 7 1 19 Jack Roman '26
Maren Matthews '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4 4 6 2 3 19 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26
Ian Coen '24
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 6 2 2 3 7 20 Alexandra Chigas '26
Dominique Spinola '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5 5 3 5 4 22 Charles Morris '25 [1-2]
Luke Quine '23 [3-5]
Natasha Vallett '25 [1-2]
Calvin May '26 [3-5]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 10 6 1 6 8 31 Tyler Nash '26
Jono Guinan '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 3 10 10 1 9 33 Julia Conneely '26
Jonathan Glander '24
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 9 8 8 9 2 36 Nat Edmonds '24
Alex Da Rosa '24
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 7 9 4 8 10 38 Olivia Lowthian '25
Caelan Haddock '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 7 9 10 5 39 Keller Morrison '25
Lucian Sharpe '24
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 11 11 12 12 12 58 Andy Giaya '24 [1-4]
Ariana Schreibman '23 [5]
Ariana Schreibman '23 [1-2]
Shannon Fitzgerald '23 [3-4]
Andy Giaya '24 [5]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 13 11 11 11 59 Maya Henning '25
Maya Senna Teiman '25
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 12 12 13 13 13 63 Carissa Keung '23
Alan Andonian '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths11335
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1212446
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 188101014
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 299111115
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen101014141
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers33557
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1414113
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 144668
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 255779
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 3668810
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks779911
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs1111151512
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts151512124

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths1212446
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33557
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 199111115
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2101014141
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1111151512
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers44668
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151512124
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 155779
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2668810
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 3779911
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks88101014
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs1414113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Amherst College Amherst College James Knowlton '25 Nora Dockter '25
Mammoths Nat Edmonds '24 Alex Da Rosa '24
Brown University Brown University Grant Adam '23 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
Bears Keller Morrison '25 Lucian Sharpe '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Patrick Stevenson '23 Sarah Levin '24
Panthers Maya Henning '25 Maya Senna Teiman '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Oliver Stokke '26 Claire Buckley '25
Hawks 1 Jack Roman '26 Maren Matthews '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kyle Pfrang '26 Ethan Snyder '25
Hawks 2 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Ian Coen '24
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Drew Mastovsky '26 Ruby Hope '25
Hawks 3 Alexandra Chigas '26 Dominique Spinola '26
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Emil Tullberg '25 Shannon Gondoly '25
Seahawks Olivia Lowthian '25 Caelan Haddock '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Jack Derry '25 Mia Quinlan '24
Bears 1 Bradley Whiteway '26 Charlie Pohl '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Luke Zylinski '26 Sarah Krajewski '26
Bears 2 Julia Conneely '26 Jonathan Glander '24
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Kate Myler '23 Ozel Yilmazel '25
Minutemen Andy Giaya '24 [1-4]
Ariana Schreibman '23 [5]
Ariana Schreibman '23 [1-2]
Shannon Fitzgerald '23 [3-4]
Andy Giaya '24 [5]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Jack Sullivan '23 [1-5] Andrew Graham '24 [1-2, 5]
Nicole Kach '24 [3-4]
Corsairs Carissa Keung '23 Alan Andonian '23
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Olin Guck '26 Brigette Alves '25
Rams Tyler Nash '26 Jono Guinan '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Ryan Potter '24 Alex Forrest '26
Catamounts Charles Morris '25 [1-2]
Luke Quine '23 [3-5]
Natasha Vallett '25 [1-2]
Calvin May '26 [3-5]

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 4 kn · W 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.35 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →