O'Toole Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 18 13 31
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 21 34 55
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 41 27 68
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 40 37 77
5 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 66 47 113
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 52 73 125
7 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 57 72 129
8 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 73 88 161
9 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3 87 77 164
10 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 95 86 181
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 18 Adam Strobridge '26
Dean Balcirak '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 2 6 1 21 Calvin Lamosse '25
Will Broseman '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 6 3 5 3 4 4 5 3 4 40 Keller Morrison '25 [1-10]
Lucian Sharpe '24 [1-9]
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 [10]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 7 8 4 5 1 2 6 1 2 41 Niall Sheridan '23 [1-10]
Sara Morrison '23 [1-9]
Rose O'Neal '22 [10]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 6 4 5 7 4 6 6 4 5 5 52 John Divelbiss '24
Celia Del Rosso '24
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 9 3 4 3 6 8 7 3 7 7 57 Sean Crandall '25
Camille Cullen '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 4 5 7 6 8 5 9 8 8 6 66 Michael Morley '26
Bailey Macvaugh '26
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 7 8 6 8 7 7 10 7 4 9 73 Tiernan O'Kane '26 [1-10]
Shannon Fitzgerald '23 [1-3, 7-10]
Iskandar Nazhar '24 [4-6]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3 8 9 9 9 10 10 5 10 9 8 87 Norman Walker '24
Krista Jordan '26
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 95 Dennis Law '23
Katie Estep '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 13 Max Sigel '26
Vanessa Reid '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 6 4 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 27 Marina Garrido '25 [1-6]
Adam Larzelere '25 [7-10]
Matthew Caplan '25 [1-6]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5 3 1 4 2 2 4 4 4 5 34 Caitlin Derby '26 [1-3, 7-9]
Luke Quine '23 [4-6, 10]
Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez '26 [1-3, 7-9]
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 2 3 3 4 5 3 3 5 3 37 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [1-10]
Anna Steffen '25 [1-9]
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 [10]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 47 Caleb Burt '25
Logan O’Rourke '24
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 10 5 9 8 6 6 7 7 3 DNS 72 Garrett Moen '23
Roan Iribarren '24
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 2 7 6 6 8 8 8 10 DNF 7 73 Jillian Harrington '23
Jordan Hanna '23
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3 7 10 7 7 9 9 9 6 7 6 77 Kolby Seibert '25
Hannah Hicks '25
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 8 8 8 9 7 7 10 9 9 DNS 86 Benjamin Siegel '26
Sophia Morgan '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 9 9 10 10 10 10 6 8 8 8 88 Ozel Yilmazel '25 [1-10]
Julia Keefe '24 [1-9]
Iskandar Nazhar '24 [10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.260+0.26
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (26 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1113335559
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1010101212121113
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 122244488810
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 233355599911
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 344488810101012
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1111111313132224
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks55599911111113
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos8881010101212121
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1212121113335
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1313132224448

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22244488810
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1111111313132224
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 133355599911
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 244488810101012
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 355599911111113
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212121113335
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks8881010101212121
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos9991111111313132
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1313132224448
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1113335559

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From ESE (119°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1019.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn · SE 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Mass Maritime: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →