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Harpswell Sound Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 15–1
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 9–7
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7–9
4 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 6–10
5 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 3–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 40 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.08 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tufts University
Jumbos		18.51
school +0.14		Patrick Mulcahy / Cali Salinas 2.59
Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 2.93
Connor Sheridan / Harper Mckerrow 2.82		88%15–1 (94%)+1.0
2Boston College
Eagles		28.14
school +0.31		Michael Kirkman / Mikayla Mathieu
Francis Selldorff / Josie Warfield 2.34
Graham Ness / Ginny Alex 2.77		82%9–7 (56%)−4.2
3Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		35.65
school +0.21, home +0.32		Benjamin Stevens / Lucas Johnson 1.59
Christine Reimer / Eleanor Donahue
Jonathan Chance / Jondall Norris 1.92		42%7–9 (44%)+0.3
4Maine Maritime Academy
Mariners		53.83
school −0.07		Luke Healy / Tristan Walker 1.10
Mott Blair / Arden Astin 1.24
Olivia Mitchell / Robert Jacobs 1.41		11%6–10 (38%)+4.3
5University of Vermont
Catamounts		44.82Charles Morris / Henry Weese
Gavin Sanborn / Alaina Vollmar 1.82
Luke Quine / Alex Boni		27%3–13 (19%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Maine Maritime Academy3.835.956–101.7+2.117.0<1%
1Tufts University8.519.4515–114.0+0.940.635%
3Bowdoin College5.655.797–96.7+0.140.058%
5University of Vermont4.824.053–134.4−0.770.892%
2Boston College8.145.869–713.2−2.287.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Mott BlairMaine Maritime Academy1.243.356–101.7+2.117.0<1%
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.593.5315–114.0+0.940.635%
Christine ReimerBowdoin College1.311.457–96.7+0.140.058%
Charles MorrisUniversity of Vermont1.300.533–134.4−0.770.892%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston CollegeBowdoin College94%
12Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy99%
13Boston CollegeUniversity of Vermont97%
14Maine Maritime AcademyBowdoin College15%upset
15Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont98%
16Maine Maritime AcademyBoston College1%upset
17Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont70%
18Tufts UniversityBoston College60%
19University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy72%
110Tufts UniversityBowdoin College95%
211Boston CollegeBowdoin College92%
212Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy99%
213Maine Maritime AcademyUniversity of Vermont28%upset
214Tufts UniversityBowdoin College95%
215Bowdoin CollegeMaine Maritime Academy86%
216Boston CollegeUniversity of Vermont97%
217Maine Maritime AcademyBoston College1%upset
218Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont98%
219Boston CollegeTufts University41%upset
220Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont70%
321Bowdoin CollegeMaine Maritime Academy86%
322Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont97%
323Boston CollegeBowdoin College92%
324Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy99%
325Boston CollegeUniversity of Vermont96%
326Tufts UniversityBowdoin College94%
327Boston CollegeMaine Maritime Academy99%
328Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont70%
329Tufts UniversityBoston College58%
330University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy74%
431Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy99%
432Boston CollegeUniversity of Vermont96%
433Maine Maritime AcademyBowdoin College14%upset
434Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont97%
435Bowdoin CollegeBoston College8%upset
436University of VermontMaine Maritime Academy74%
437Tufts UniversityBowdoin College94%
438Maine Maritime AcademyBoston College1%upset
439Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont69%
440Tufts UniversityBoston College58%

Round 1

TeamRec.JumbosEaglesBearsMarinersCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos4–0✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles2–2L✕WLW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–3LL✕LW
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners2–2LWW✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.JumbosEaglesBearsMarinersCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos3–1✕LWWW
Boston College Eagles3–1W✕WLW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–2LL✕WW
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners2–2LWL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.JumbosEaglesBearsMarinersCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos4–0✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles3–1L✕WWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–2LL✕WW
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLL✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.JumbosEaglesBearsMarinersCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos4–0✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles1–3L✕LLW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–2LW✕LW
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners2–2LWW✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4-5-6
2 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
3 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
4 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
6 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
7 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-4-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
9 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-5-6
10 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
11 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
12 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
13 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
15 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
17 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
19 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
20 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
22 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
23 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4-5-6
24 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
25 Boston College Eagles 1-4-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-6
26 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
27 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
28 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
29 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Boston College Eagles 4-5-6
30 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-4-6
31 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-5
32 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
33 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
34 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-5-6
35 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
36 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
37 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
38 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
39 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
40 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 995.1 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity62% Pressure995.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Bowdoin — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Bowdoin in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled fleet-race days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →