Maine Maritime Academy '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (fleet 1.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–17 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–10 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 8–17 against 4.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-26 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 1.24 | 3.35 | 6–10 | 1.7 | +2.11 | 7.0 | <1% |
| 2019-03-30 | Harpswell Sound team Race | skipper | 1.65 | 0.90 | 2–7 | 2.8 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NE Dinghy Tourney | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | -0.29 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.2 | 1.98 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.5 | -0.54 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.2 | 0.12 |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 2.66 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.7 | 1.99 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 18.5 | -0.46 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.0 | 1.34 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.0 | 2.05 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.3 | 2.85 |
| Harpswell Sound team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 1.99 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.0 | 2.25 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 15.3 | 1.77 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 2.83 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.5 | 0.68 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.4 | 1.40 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
